The Launch Angle

We’re not in Kansas (City) Anymore

Things looked pretty good for Astros fans in June. The Astros finished the month with an AL-best 16-11 record. They climbed to within 1 game of the division lead towards the end of the month. They won 5 series in a row. The team was getting healthier with players returning from injury on the horizon. It was a good, maybe even great, month.

Spencer Arrighetti had a great month earlier this year too, though. His May was so great that it earned him AL Pitcher of the Month honors. It was an illusion though, and regression came hard for him the next month.

Was the Astros’ success in June an illusion too? 16-11 is great, but look at who the Astros faced to get that record:

Only one of these teams, Cleveland, has a winning record as of today. The Astros basically took a tour of every losing team in the American League except for the Orioles and Red Sox in June.

Let’s face it, the Astros did great in June, but it was on easy mode. That ends with this next series. The Astros face the #1 team in the AL: the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays have a 51-33 record on the season, and roll into town on an 8 game winning streak. The Astros 16-11 June gave them a .593 win percentage for the month. The Rays have a .607 win percentage for the entire season.

Dana Brown wants Astros fans to believe they should be buyers at this year’s deadline. Standing up to the league’s top dog and halting their juggernaut win streak would go a long way towards getting fans to buy into that.

Junior Caminero Enters the MVP Conversation

A large part of the Rays 8 game win streak is has been the play of third-year third baseman Junior Caminero. Coming into yesterday, Caminero had homered in 6 consecutive games, with a whopping 9 home runs in his last 8 games. Last month, I wrote up a profile on Bobby Witt, Jr., when the Astros played the Royals, who I considered to be Yordan Alvarez’ primary competitor for the AL MVP. With his recent surge, Caminero has entered that conversation.

After his 9 home runs in 8 games, Alvarez and Caminero each have fearsome lines:

Alvarez still outpaces him in every category, but Caminero isn’t all that far behind in any of them. Also, Caminero does two things that Alvarez does not . One is play defense. Now, depending on what metric you use, it’s not great or even good defense (-10 OAA, 3 DRS, 0.4 dWAR), and it’s certainly not the Platinum Glove level defense Witt has, but it’s still defense. Considering that there’s never been a designated hitter MVP in MLB history who wasn’t named “Shohei Ohtani”, that matters.

The second is play for a winning team. If Alvarez, Witt and Dillon Dingler are the players in the MVP conversation, the argument about “well, his team didn’t win” is irrelevant. The Astros, Royals and Tigers all have losing records. Caminero entering the picture bring the issue back into play, whether it’s a fair argument or not.

Caminero failed to extend his 6 game homer streak last night, going 0 for 5, which drops his stats slightly, but that doesn’t diminish him as a threat. Teams didn’t stop fearing Alvarez when he was on his recent 0 for 16 streak. 6 for 8 with a home run was right around the corner. The Astros should show Caminero the same respect other teams have been showing Alvarez. If there’s an open base, maybe just let him have it.

Changes, Turn and Face the Strange

Get ready for a lot of changeups this series. Nobody throws the changeup more frequently than the Rays. They lead the majors in number of changeups thrown total, the number of changeups thrown by LHP vs LHH, the number of changeups thrown by RHP vs RHH. (Not the number of changeups thrown by RHP vs LHH though. That’s actually the Astros.)

Only 3 RHP pitchers in MLB have thrown more changeups against RHH than tonight’s starting pitcher for the Rays, 35 year-old veteran Nick Martinez. This is notable because despite more frequent use of lefty outfielders like Taylor Trammell and Joey Loperfido, the Astros remain a right-handed dominant lineup, even to righty starting pitchers, and righty Astros against righty changeups rank 4th worst in the AL in BA (.187)and xBA (.160), and middle of the pack in xwOBA (7th, .221). Only the Angels see more changeups to their right- handed hitters from right-handed pitchers than the Astros.

The Rays use the changeup frequently, according to Rays baseball analyst Ian Malinowski, because their pitching lab has gotten the staff to get the most out of them. They drop more than most other team’s changeups, particularly righty on righty. For RHP vs RHH, the Rays have the lowest Plate Vertical (ft.) in the majors at 1.41. Nick Martinez himself has 40.8 inches of vertical break on his changeup this year, well above league average.

Martinez, while he does throw a 4-seamer, uses a sinker as his primary fastball, and pairs it with the aforementioned changeup as well as a cutter. He does also have a curveball and slider, but they’re used sparingly, so he ranks just 7th percentile for breaking run value. His sinker (and to a lesser extent four seam) rates highly with a 91st percentile. His changeup gets him into the 99th percentile for Offspeed run value.

Martinez is 7-2 on the season in 16 starts, with a 2.66, 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9. That strikeout rate is the lowest he’s had since he came back from 4 years in Japan in 2022, so Martinez isn’t pitching quite as well as his surface numbers would suggest. It can be hard to sustain such a low ERA without a higher strikeout rate; Martinez’ xERA (4.55), FIP (3.72), xFIP (4.54) and SIERA (4.72) are noticeably higher.

Spaghetti (With Meatballs)

Is Spencer Arrighetti cooked? Tonight’s starter for the Astros has a lot to prove to the front office.

The rotation is getting crowded, and not everyone can remain a part of it. Cristian Javier is coming back and initially headed to the bullpen, but the team won’t hesitate to slot him into the rotation again if someone falters. Ronel Blanco and Lance McCullers are also on their way back. Mike Burrows and Spencer Arrighetti have options, but Dana Brown invested a lot into trading for Burrows, so Arrighetti looks like a more likely candidate to be sent down. Considering his performance since his award-winning May, it’s hard to argue for keeping him up in the majors.

The ERA is drastically different, but the other numbers… aren’t. The xwOBA and xERA are nearly identical. The xFIP and SIERA are actually improved in June, largely because the strikeout rate has increased and the walk rate has decreased. But hitters are now batting 128 points better in June than May, even though by xBA, they’re really only batting 23 points better.

What’s changed is luck. Arrighetti went from a .197 BABIP, 89.9 LOB%, and 3.2% HR/FB% in May to a .361 BABIP, 54.2 LOB% and 26.9 HR/FB% in June. Arrighetti is probably realistically somewhere in between his May self and June self. If Spencer doesn’t turn in a good start tonight though, “bad luck” may not be enough of an excuse to save him from going back down to Sugar Land.

Rays @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on Apple TV with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

For more detailed instructions, please see the Guide to the Launch Angle.

If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)

Feature photo by Toliver5568. Cropped. Creative Commons License.