The Launch Angle

Tonight begins a series where the top two contenders for the 2026 AL MVP face off head to head. In many years, that would also mean two of the top AL teams would be facing off, but curiously enough, the two leading candidates for 2026 AL MVP belong to losing teams: Yordan Alvarez, designated hitter for the 31-39 Houston Astros and Bobby Witt Jr., shortstop for the 28-41 Kansas City Royals.

I could show you the stats for both Alvarez and Witt and how they measure up to each other in the MVP race, but there’s still over 90 games left in this season, as as Kenny Rogers once sang (the singer/Gambler, not the pitcher), “there’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealing’s done.”

I wanted to talk about Bobby Witt Jr. As talented a baseball player as there is in the game this year, he’s a superstar whose only weakness seems to be the fact that he’s buried in Kansas City, where his visibility is a fraction of Aaron Judge’s in New York City or Shohei Ohtani’s in Los Angeles.

He didn’t start his career as complete a player as he is now. Witt’s 2022 rookie year was by no means a bust. He recorded a 20 HR/30 SB season, and finished 4th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but it was another AL Shortstop that grabbed headlines at the end of the year. The Astros’ Jeremy Peña won the Gold Glove, a rare occurrence for a rookie, and the first time a rookie had won the Gold Glove at the shortstop position. The Gold Glove award would go onto his mantle alongside his ALCS and World Series MVPs.

Jeremy Peña and Bobby Witt Jr’s offensive rookie seasons were nearly identical:

Jeremy Peña finished with 2022 with a 5.0 bWAR though and Bobby Witt a 0.9 bWAR. That’s a stark difference in bWAR for two players with nearly indistinguishable offensive statistics. While they both had identical 3.3 oWAR, the difference was their dWAR. Peña had a 2.6 dWAR, while Witt had a -1.3 dWAR between third base and shortstop work, and that defensive value helped Peña bring home the 2022 Gold Glove.

So while Witt had a more than respectable rookie campaign, there was a lot more room for growth, growth that would be expected of a player who was selected 2nd overall in the 2019 MLB Draft.

Since 2022, Witt has taken that challenge to grow defensively and obliterated it.

By 2024, Witt had earned an AL Shortstop Gold Glove of his own. By 2025, he not only won a second one, he won the AL Platinum Glove, for the best defensive player in the entire league. In 2026, he became the starting shortstop for the USA World Baseball Classic, and he dazzled everyone with his defensive play.

Offensively, he’s skyrocketed as well. In 2023, he led the majors in triples (11), and posted his first 30-30 season. In 2024, he led the majors in hits (211), and earned his first batting title (.332) and Silver Slugger while recording another 30-30 season. In 2025, he led the majors again in hits (184) and also in doubles (47), while winning another Silver Slugger. In 2026, so far, he’s slashing .279/.353/.450 and leading the majors in stolen bases with 24.

Since his rookie year, he’s placed 7th, 2nd, and 4th in AL MVP voting, and made 2 All-Star teams. This year, a 3rd All-Star nod is pretty much in the bag, and he’s either 1st or 2nd in the the AL MVP race depending on who you ask. He leads the majors in bWAR with 3.7, and fWAR with 3.8. By both major formulas for WAR, he has been the most valuable player in Major League Baseball this season.

Since Peña’s rookie year, Peña also made his first All-Star game and also got a top 10 finish MVP finish, both coming last year in 2025. Peña has just recently started to unlock new levels of offensive ability; his 2025 wRC+ of 135 and his 2026 wRC+ of 116 so far are his highest since his rookie year. Defensively, while still valuable at shortstop, his rookie year remains his high point; his dWAR has dropped each subsequent season.

This isn’t a knock on Jeremy Peña. I’m sure the Astros are very happy with what they have in Peña, and they should be. There’s a reason, though, that Peña was a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft, and someone like Witt was taken second overall. Witt’s ceiling was always higher, and he seems to have even surpassed that.

Witt has become what you hope someone you draft second overall would become.

If Yordan Alvarez is going to win an MVP over Witt, it may very well take a triple crown to do so, the same way it took a triple crown for Miguel Cabrera to win the MVP over 2011 Mike Trout. Witt hits for average, hits for power, fields, throws and runs all at elite levels. As someone who primarily plays designated hitter, and doesn’t add anything in the defensive or baserunning departments, it’s gonna take historic hitting to get voters to check Alvarez’ box over Witt’s.

Astros @ Angels Game Information and Gamethread Details

Tatsuya Imai take his turn as starting pitcher for the Astros tonight. Since he pitched the first 6 innings of the combined no-hitter against the Rangers on May 25, he has started to put forth more consistent outings. On May 31, he logged another quality start, allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings. His last time out, he only went 5 innings, but still only allowed 2 earned runs, and elicited 17 swings and misses and 8 strikeouts, en route to a win. The Astros are hoping he has turned the corner from his rough start to the 2026 season.

Starting with the combined no-hitter, Imai has seen his ERA drop from 8.31 to 5.24. Another strong performance today could get that number into the 4’s. Imai remains strong at generating whiffs; his 30.2% whiff rate puts him at the 85th percentile. Avoiding walks and hard hit balls is going to be key for him keep the runs off the scoresheet.

For the Royals, right-hander Luinder Avila makes his 3rd start in a row after spending most of the season in the bullpen. Avila, a rookie began the season with a spot start for a doubleheader, but was shuttled back and forth to AAA Omaha for much of April before spending May in the big league pen.

For the season, Avila carries a 4.02 ERA, with a 1.596 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9, but he’s been better in since they moved him into the rotation in June. In June, he’s made 2 starts, both for 5 innings, and each allowing just 1 run, going 86 and 70 pitches.

Avila is a hard throwing righty, with a sinker and 4-seamer averaging 96.4 mph, which he pairs with a slider primary to right-handed hitters. To lefties, he’ll also mix in his changeup and curveball a bit more. Despite throwing hard, hitters don’t often hit the ball hard back. He ranks in the 89th percentile for Hard Hit%.

This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

For those of you following the World Cup, that gives you 50 minutes of Astros baseball before you have to decide whether to stick with the ‘Stros or change the channel for the 8 p.m. CT start of the USA vs Paraguay match.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

For more detailed instructions, please see the Guide to the Launch Angle.

If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)

Feature photo by Johnmaxmena2. Creative Commons License.