The top priority for the Astros in the offseason was to bolster a pitching staff already short on depth, specifically starters, and likely losing Framber Valdez to another team in free agency. The rotation looked increasingly more like Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and a bunch of question marks. In turn, Dana Brown signed Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss to possibly absorb some of those innings and help fill out the depth chart. But more work is obviously needed as plenty of questions remain, which is why there have been ongoing rumors over the past couple of weeks.
Now, enter Mike Burrows.
The right-handed Burrows, only 26 with just 0.135 years of MLB service time, is the lone player heading back to Houston in this three-team deal. Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito are heading to Tampa Bay, while Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery, and Jake Mangum are being shipped off to Pittsburgh.
At face value, the Astros acquire another starter they desperately needed with multiple years of club control. That’s a positive development, even if that meant parting ways with two of the club’s best prospects. Losing both Melton and Brito, both well-regarded in the organization, stings, but the price for acquiring cost-controlled pitchers is undoubtedly high. Take a gander at what the Orioles traded to the Rays for Shane Baz, for example. But was this an overpay for Burrows? Perhaps, but we won’t entirely know for a while. Burrows isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2031 season. In fact, Melton’s own service time has barely been scratched, and Brito hasn’t pitched above High-A yet. There is plenty of time to relitigate this trade later.
In terms of what Burrows brings today, he had a five-pitch mix in 2025, utilizing a four-seam fastball (39.2%), changeup (23.7%), slider (19.5%), curveball (11.9%), and sinker (5.6%). The sinker was a summertime addition in 2025, with his four-seam usage dropping around the same time. That tracks, considering the four-seam’s overall issues with opposing hitters, who slugged .529 against it this year with only a 16.8% whiff rate. The sinker with its movement profile was used predominantly against right-handed hitters, showing some promise. But Burrows’ best pitch is undoubtedly his changeup, with his overall offspeed pitches posting a 97th percentile run value (+9).
So, these are the Astros, who are well known for improving pitchers once they acquire them. While it isn’t a success in every single instance, you can feel pretty confident that the organization and its pitching lab will implement some tweaks in their attempt to help those pitchers reach another level. Burrows will be no different.
But what will Burrows, Josh Miller, and Ethan Katz possibly adjust, at least from my perspective? I think the question centers around how they feel about his four-seam and sinker. In 2025, Burrows’ four-seam exhibited more cutter-like characteristics than it did in 2024, with greater movement toward the left-handed side of the plate. But against left-handed hitters, the pitch actually performed well (.378 SLG, .322 wOBA); however, right-handers just mashed against it (.703 SLG, .473 wOBA). That development wasn’t necessarily a surprise, considering how cutters tend to help against opposite-handed hitters, while it can prove increasingly ineffective against same-handed hitters. The sinker, though, offers a different and possibly more effective look against right-handed hitters. Hunter Brown, if you may recall, introduced a sinker in May 2024 to help neutralize right-handed hitters to great success. It is easy to envision a similar blueprint possibly helping Burrows, especially if his offspeed stuff maintains its effectiveness.
In any case, Burrows will likely slot in behind Brown and possibly Javier in the rotation. While his track record isn’t as extensive as a Major League pitcher, he’ll hopefully provide the kind of production to justify such optimism. He was highly regarded in the Pirates’ system for a reason. It also helps that he is, again, under club control for multiple years. Uncertainty remains within this staff, yes, but Burrows is likely to make this rotation better in 2026 and beyond.
I like this trade, but then I see Melton as 4 outfielder platoon bat at best that will lose a lot of value as soon as he ages out centerfield. Brito could hurt in the long run, but Burrows has a lot of club control and looks like he’s pretty close to be a 2 WAR pitcher as is. That’s going to be pretty expensive to acquire in a trade. I would like one more starter that feels like a legit #2 of course, but I do like the depth with upside that the Astros have added to the rotation ration so far…which is something they’ve ignored for the past 3 off seasons… maybe even longer. Hopefully these guys can make through the season without needing any new ligaments.
This is the kind of move I hoped they would make once it became clear they refused to spend any money. I agree with ntn that Melton’s loss probably hurts much less than Brito, but while it does indeed sting to lose a guy like that (I have a soft spot for smaller pitchers who can throw hard) the fact that Burrows has a lot of team control left makes the cost worth it.
His changeup appears to be exactly the kind of thing the Astros like to work with; mid-90’s FB + a very highly rated cambio could be a lethal combo with Miller and our new guy Katz behind him.
I also like that this decreases the likelihood that we trade Paredes out of desperation if the market stays fairly cold and pricey. If we move Isaac, it should only be for a true difference maker, and now there is a bit of real insurance against us not acquiring a true #2 (no insult to Pearson or Weiss, but they aren’t that).
I like the trade. Burrows had some upside potential and he is the kind of pitcher that the Astros’ pitching lab excels at helping. In some ways, he reminds me of the acquisition of Wesneski last yaar. Except that Burrows has more experience starting than Wesneski did in 2024, and Burrows’ results in 2025 were better than Wesneski in 2024. I’m anxious to see Burrows’ splitter-change up. Jason Alexander also has a nasty change up, but Burrows is even better. I still would like to see the Astros sign a free agent starter like Mahle, Bassitt, or Nick Martinez who can soak up more innings.
The Wesneski comparison seems like a pretty good comparison for Mike Burrows since both have decent control. Burrows has experienced more success initially, and much of his improvement and upside centers on the belief of strides he made during the season last year.
Speking of Wesneski, of the three TJS starters, he has the best chance at making an impact this season since his surgery happened earlier in the season. As we’ve experienced lately TJS is no sure thing, but hopefully some of them return to form.
I think this has the potential to be a good acquisition. His peripherals look great and I think he had good numbers. The thing about the Pirates is that they’re one of the ultimate poverty franchises in the league but they can somehow find good pitchers. The thing is, when those pitchers leave, they tend to become better elsewhere. I’m hoping Burrows is a guy we can take to the next level.
Brent Storm was in Pittsburgh in 2025, so we may not be able to count on getting more out of a pitcher than the Pirates did like we could in the past.
That’s a decent point. The only hope we have is that maybe Strom was stuck in his ways and was still preaching 4-seam fastballs at the top of the zone. He seems to preach moving away from sinkers in favor of 4-seamers to increase K’s. I haven’t looked at Burrows pitch percentages yet, but I recall DB saying that they plan on having him throw his 2-seamer more often similar to HB. In Hunter’s case the inclusion of that pitch opened up the outside part of the zone for him and helped keep hitters off his other pitches. I doubt Burrows 2-seamer is as good as Hunter’s but maybe it can serve a similar purpose.
My take on Melton is that the he’s a left-handed Jake Marisnik. Big, strong, fast, excellent defense. Occasional power, but not a consistent-enough hitter to be a regular starter. He could get better as he ages, but so could Cole. If Melton’s what it took to trade for a starter the Astros had to have so be it.
It’s quite possible that’s what he turns out to be. I think he has more upside offensively than Marisnick did, but will provide less value defensively.
The biggest issue with Melton up to this point has been staying healthy. If he can do that consistently then I think you’ll see him get in a rhythm and realize some of his offensive potential. If not then his opportunities to prove himself will dwindle rapidly.
What is your opinion on the prospect cost for this deal? I guess for me I am more bothered by giving up on Melton, I know the concerns with the ground ball% at the MLB level and the injuries that keep flaring up, but it was still a high upside lefty bat that could play well at any OF slot.
Swapping Brito and Burrows to me though is more than likely worth it. 6 years of control for a starter now vs the potential of 6 years from a high upside arm is worth the risk and right in line with what the market cost is for pitching right now.
I think I would have been way more upset if we gave up Melton, Frey, Neyans, and Brito for Baz.
I definitely agree with your last sentence. I would be extremely upset if we would’ve tried to match an Orioles offer for Baz, especially since the success of that trade hinges on a rebound from Baz.
I wasn’t the biggest fan of the Astros trying to trade Melton this offseason as I felt like it was a sell low type of move. I suppose some might view it as trading him while he still has some value left depending on your opinion of Melton, but I felt like moving Melton was selling low.
Sometimes prospects back themselves into a position where teams either have to choose to ride or die and risk the prospect succeeding and/or bottoming out. They went that route with Whitley and unfortunately he bottomed out. They chose to trade Melton before it got to that point, but I would’ve been fine with rolling the dice and letting it get to that point with Melton as well. If he stays healthy then I think he’s a solid regular.
As for Brito, he’s had a ton of helium, and I would like to think that he had more trade value than what was received in return. The problem was Burrows was experiencing some helium as well.
I’m an extreme homer, and also follow our farm system closely so I admittedly have a bias that I’ve tried to reel in over the years but still have a hard time doing at times.
With all that being said, I suppose it’s a fair trade for the Astros since they chose to trade Melton when his value was at its lowest since he’s been in the system. Classic Rays type of trade to buy low. Can see it working out really well for them.
I know a few people have done this exercise but I do love the pitching depth we have kind of developed at this point.
Assuming healthy guaranteed rotation spots.
Brown
Javier
Burrows
Arrighetti
Battling for final spots
Alexander
Weiss
Pearson
Blubaugh
Gordon
AAA Depth
Ullola
Pecko
Fleury
AA to AAA pipeline:
Nezuh
Treadwell
Meyers
Hicks
College arms that have been injured
Forcucci
Hertlzer
Dizon
Smith
This is the making of pretty solid pitching depth and even if its with a new GM post this season. There is a lot of control left especially at the Major League level where pitching can be traded around like what Pittsburgh did to fill other holes or attempt to get a top of the rotation arm.
There are also a few late season adds from the IR – Wesneski, Walter, and Blanco. Not that we can assume that these guys will just pick up from where they left off, but if just one can contribute that could be a big lift.
Also, I’m not quite ready to give up on LMJ.