If Cam Smith’s hitting ever takes that next step, he’d be a star. I don’t think that’s a controversial opinion, especially if he continues to make plays like this one in right field.
Since the start of the 2025 season, only five qualified right fielders have a higher FRV (Fielding Run Value) than Smith’s 5 FRV. The defensive metrics also match the eye test, an impressive feat considering how Smith didn’t even play the position until last year as a rookie. Smith’s long term status will be determined by his hitting ability. But the above average defense provides a good floor for now.
Unfortunately, Smith and the rest of the Astros couldn’t hit much of anything against the Rays on Friday. Three hits, only one walk. Other than Yordan Alvarez’s solo home run in the sixth, it was a forgettable night for the bats.
On the plus side, Spencer Arrighetti turned the page on his June struggles, limiting the Rays to one run on two hits while walking just one and striking out four. It was a nice bounce back effort for the right-hander considering his struggles in the past month.
The decision by Joe Espada to replace Arrighetti after just 73 pitches in the seventh with Steven Okert was the turning point, though. While the bullpen was rested following the off day on Thursday, it was a curious decision at best to remove Arrighetti at that time. Again, only 73 pitches in six innings, allowing just three base runners, typically warrants another inning. Steven Okert giving up a solo home run to Junior Caminero on a hanging slider only amplified the questionable rationale around the decision.
Of course, Espada replacing Arrighetti with Okert didn’t lose the game by itself. The lineup struggled, with the outfield remaining a mess at the plate. Smith made an inopportune base running mistake. Enyel De Los Santos gave up another run. There are a lot of reasons why Houston lost this game.
Featured photo from Astros on X
I think there might have been some concern about Arighetti’s velo being oddly low in the mid and later innings of his start. I was concerned watching fastballs come in at 91 and 89mph cutters. I’ve seen Spencer throw 97 before.
My problem was with selecting Okert and allowing him to pitch to Caminero. Huge mistake. The batters due up were L,R,L so I guess Okert makes some sense. But allowing him to throw a mistake hanging breaking pitch to Jr. was foolish given Caminero’s current state and the 0 runners on base at the time.
Hitting Altuve 1 before Yordan continues to be a costly mistake. And Nick Fortes’ swings in this game were suspicious as hell. That was clearly a player selling out 100% for fastballs and getting them. The Astros were throwing predictable pitches.
We arrive at this point in 2026 where the Astros have a superior roster but are sadly a much dumber team.
Sequencing has been a problem all year when certain catchers are catching. Ones named Yainer specifically.
The Apple TV crew mentioned the Rays small ball play as related to their outstanding record. Sabermetrics is not gospel and a good manager knows when to override modern baseball to win. By the way, today, the Rays won playing long ball.
Did Espada ever explain his reasoning for lifting Arrighetti after 6 IP? It’s certainly perplexing enough that the media should ask the question.
I have mixed feelings about the decision, mostly because I have been criticizing Espada for keeping starting pitchers in the game until they melt down. This time he didn’t, so I would accept an answer for the decision which has some rational basis. But who knows?
Don’t you like the dropping velocity explanation?