After battling back to within 2.5 games of the division lead, it look like contention for the division was right there, within the Astros’ grasp. Then the Astros dropped a winnable series against the Brewers and having lost the first game, are now they are in danger of losing the current series against the Pirates.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have won 5 games in a row. The Mariners have won 8 in a row. The Astros find themselves 6 games back of the division again, and what looked to be within arm’s reach began to fade away again. You can’t climb your way out of a hole when you keep only winning 1 out of 3 games in series.
In order to get out of this Pirates series with a series win, the Astros will need to win both games 2 and 3.
Well, here’s the good news and bad news about their pathway to winning Game 2 tonight.
Good News – The Astros are sending their best pitcher of 2026 to the mound, and the newly announced AL May Pitcher of the Month.
Spencer Arrighetti is 7-1 with a 1.34 ERA in 8 starts. The Astros have won every single time he has started except once in Cincinnati, when the Astros lost 3-1 on the back of a couple outfield errors by Cam Smith and Zach Cole.
Arrighetti won AL Pitcher of the Month for May with a 4-1 record, and a 0.90 ERA in 29 innings over 5 starts. (Interesting tidbit: Arrighetti had 22 strikeouts, which is the lowest strikeout total for any pitcher of the month since Logan Gilbert won in April 2022, a shortened month due to a delayed season start because of the lockout. Before that it would have been Jon Lester’s 20 K’s in June 2018.)
Bad News – We probably shouldn’t keep expecting this level of success from Spencer. His ERA is 1.34, but his xERA is 4.68, Only 2 qualified pitchers in the majors have a larger negative discrepancy than Arrighetti. His FIP is 3.97, his xFIP is 4.97, and his SIERA is 4.75. He has a respectable K/9 rate 8.2, but why should we expect him to continue to have a sub 1.5 ERA, when he also has a 5.0 K/9. That’s worst in the majors among qualified starters. He’s survived it with an 89.3 LOB%, which would be third among qualified starters.
(I didn’t look this up, but I have to think Arrighetti’s 17 walks in May is one of the highest, if not the highest, walk totals for any pitcher to still win a pitcher of the month award.)
He’s not made good pitches against lefties (like most of the Astros pitching staff this year). In 8 starts, Pitcher List gave him a B-, C-, D+, D, and 4 F’s against left-handed batters, and the Pirates have a roster than can roll out 8 lefty bats. They had 7 lefties in their lineup yesterday against Burrow, who also struggles against lefties, and knocked him around.
May was an illusion, and illusions ultimately fade.
Good News – The Pirates have lost half the games their starting pitcher for today has started this year. They lost 15 of the 32 he started last year too. Whenever they send this guy to the mound, it’s essentially been a coin flip whether the Pirates win.
Bad News – That starting pitcher going to the mound today is Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, who has a 2.89 ERA, career low 0.857 WHIP, and career high strikeout to walk ratio, with a 10.3 K/9 to just 1.7 BB/9. And unlike Arrighetti, Skenes really is pitching as well as his ERA suggests. His xERA is 2.28, his FIP is 2.71, his xFIP is 2.96 and his SIERA is 2.83.
Paul Skenes doesn’t always get the run support he deserves, but his pitching is the real deal, and his track record and peripheral stats back it up.
The matchup is Spencer Arrighetti vs. Paul Skenes, which on the surface looks like two aces facing off, as if they were the Spider-Men in the popular internet meme.
But what people forget about this scene is that only of these two was Spider-Man. The other was the Chameleon (or at least a stand-in for the Chameleon, because the rights were tied up), a character who could look like Spider-Man, but possessed none of his powers.
The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
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The frustrating thing is it’s not an illusion. The team has enough talent to get 80-something wins at least, which is competitive in a division that has started slow.
What is likely an illusion is the idea that this team can once again dig itself out of a huge hole it put itself in early via everything going wrong, at least on the pitching side, for almost an entire month. Everything from roster construction, pitcher management, spring training, acclimation of a new foreign player, adapting to ABS, etc.
We could easily be .500 right now even with the injuries we’ve faced simply if Espada managed better. Normally that’s a shallow fan statement blaming the manager for everything. It really isn’t in this case.
The sad thing is that Crane is following some etiquette, like it would be rude to can Espada mid season. Espada is not manager material. He wasn’t good three years ago and he is not going to get better tomorrow or next year.
Crane waited too long to change the coaches, and now the manager and the trainers. It’s like he is managing OPM (other people’s money).
The illusion (at least the primary one) I was trying to focus on was more the illusion of Spencer’s may.
Anyways I think the team would be competitive with the mariners if the season started today, but it’s hard with a 6 game hole with what they have. And I know we’ve run down Seattle from a larger deficit before but this team isnt as good as that team and those mariners weren’t as good as these mariners.
There’s 100 games left so the season isn’t pointless, but Seattle stumbled out to the gate and gave the Astros an opening that they didn’t take advantage of and that may be what the season boils down to
My friend who is a Pirates fan said that Skenes has lost three in a row mostly because he had some bad defense behind him.
Okay, so 17 walks isn’t even close to the highest number of walks by a pitcher who won pitcher of the month. August 1982 Nolan Ryan had 25 walks. He also pitched 54.2 innings that month though and recorded 48 strikeouts.
So maybe 17 walks isn’t the highest, but I’d bet Spencer’s walk rate (14.2%) is the highest and K:BB (1.29) is among the lowest.