Almost blowing a 9-0 first-inning lead is incredibly on-brand for the 2026 Astros. Frankly, I’m surprised that they didn’t actually lose the game. Thank goodness for Josh Hader because my confidence in Bryan Abreu is nonexistent.
Fun(?) fact time: Of the 18 runs scored in this game, 14 occurred in the first inning alone. That made some history.
Whenever Yordan Alvarez hits two home runs and drives in six runs, all in the first inning and a club record for RBI in a single inning, you have to feel good about the Astros’ chances for victory. Nine runs total before three outs were made. It would take a complete implosion from this pitching staff for this game to even become interesting…
Wait, Tatsuya Imai only generated two outs and didn’t leave due to injury? Again, on brand for the 2026 Astros.
Like Luinder Avila for the Royals, Imai simply didn’t have it. Fastballs were either thrown in the middle of the zone or clearly outside. His slider was ineffective. Given how he was pitching, Houston was fortunate the damage was only five runs. Quite a disappointing development for Imai, who had thrown the ball more effectively in his last few starts.
In any case, that first inning was a disaster for both teams. Neither starter could escape the first inning. For the Astros, who had a 9-0 lead before even throwing a pitch, burning through the bullpen simply because of your wholly ineffective starter, with only one off day between now and July 2, isn’t a positive development. Losing this game, well, would’ve been a terrible look.
Now with a 9-5 lead after one, it was up to the bullpen to finish the job. Easier said than done with this group, though. AJ Blubaugh and Nate Pearson threw four combined scoreless innings. The lineup, however, couldn’t extend the lead. Unfortunately, Enyel De Los Santos and Bryan King also didn’t have it, allowing three runs in the eighth. An early 9-0 lead was nearly gone, with a 9-8 score in its place. Brice Matthews did give Hader a bit more breathing room, with a solo home run in the ninth inning to make it 10-8.
Thankfully, Hader was able to prevent any further implosion, with Matthews’s home run giving this team a little more margin for error. While it wasn’t much, a 10-8 lead in the bottom of the ninth on the road helped. With only 32 wins on the season compared to 39 losses, the Astros can’t afford to be worried about whether a win was aesthetically pleasing. Friday’s game against the Royals is a good example of why.
When did the Astros pitchers become vulnerable to LHB?
“The Astros’ pitching vulnerability is largely due to their unique team strategy.Pitch Types: Their pitchers prefer throwing certain pitches to right-handed batters, but these pitches are easier for lefties to hit.Lefty Specialists: The team often chose to rely on right-handed pitchers instead of having a left-handed specialist in the bullpen.League Trend: The entire league has seen left-handed hitters become more powerful in recent years, making right-handed pitchers more vulnerable if they don’t change their style.” Mostly from Fangraphs.
Good point
Imai is going to have to be better than this. I thought we were trending in the right direction but now we have to see what happens next.
For Miller’s standards, figuring out and correcting what is wrong with Astros pitching is taking way too long. Are we missing Murphy?
It should be noted that a lot of Pirates fans have not been happy with Murphy, feeling like the pitching has gotten worse under him.
Here’s an example one pirates fan podcaster, but I’ve seen this take elsewhere among the pirates fanbase
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/14ieYwE7ASQ/?mibextid=KsPBc6
I honestly think it’s the introduction of the ABS that’s changed everything moreso than the arrival of Katz or the departure of Murphy. It’s changed the game so much. Because it’s not just the 5 or 7 pitches that get challenged that it affects. The fact that it exists affects every pitch.
There’s going to be an adjustment period for the whole league and some are adjusting faster than others and we may be on the slower side, which is still a valid criticism, but the adjustment period might be longer for the league than ppl would think because you need to accumulate data and right now there’s just 2 months of mlb data. How much should have been anticipated based on minor or independent league data, I can’t say, but data with those caliber players is not gonna be the same as MLB level.
I have noticed in his past two post game interviews, Arrighetti has alluded to the new strike zone as “the small little box” and the difficulty of trying to throw to a “small box.” He apparently blames the BB issues on the smaller strike zone.
Could you be specific? What is it about ABS that changed the game? Why the Astros are the most affected by it? The Fangraph-ish analysis I posted is also non-specific.
I have written two articles here about the impact of the ABS strike zone. Compared to last year’s strike zone, the ABS zone is smaller in total square inches, about 3 inches smaller in width, and on average 3 inches lower at the top of the zone. However, this latter “lowering” of the zone top varies by batter because the ABS zone is specific to each batter on a percentage basis. It affects umpire behavior because they do not want successful challenges, and it affects batter behavior because they have learned to swing less and are more likely to take their chances on not swinging at pitches on the edges of the zone. One major impact: probably decreases effectiveness of pitchers who like to get strike outs at the top of the zone. I am guessing that it favors pitchers who throw strikes low in the zone, and/or pitchers with elite command. To some extent, the Astros are most affected because of the pitching styles they preferred, which in turn affects the type of pitchers who are on their roster.
Click on Clack’s name and it should bring you to his author page here, you should be able to find his pieces on the abs zone pretty quickly that way
Astros pitchers throw at top of the zone, okay. Why didn’t MLB hitters counter this strategy? Do other pitchers have elite command or throw low in the zone? We are at the bottom of MLB in ERA!
How about LHB? Walks/9?
We are hopeless and helpless.
I address almost all of the issue in these articles: The New Strike Zone and the Astros’ Pitching StyleAstros Pitchers’ High Walk Rate Is Caused by Left-Handed BatsMike Burrows and the Home Run Bug
As for the lower top rail, batters have responded to the new ABS zone by swinging less and hitting high exit velocity shots on the pitcher’s “near misses” at the top boundary. Because the top of the zone is 3 inches lower, it means that “near misses” may now be closer to the center of the strike zone.
Let’s say everything you propose is correct. Why can’t our pitchers adapt to the new reality?
A friend described Yordan’s season as “Bunyonesque.” That about captures it.
First, the “frustrating” feelings about this game and the way it played out seemed to have disappeared after a night’s sleep and accepting “a win is a win.”
Second, Imai’s primary problem is not a high enough strike percentage, which makes him throw too many pitches (even though there was only 1 walk). As Espada said in the post game, it was Imai single inning pitch count (close to 40) which caused him removal and not anything to do with his stuff, which was pretty good. With the exception of Perez’s 95 EV single, all 5 of the hits allowed by Imai had an EV ranging from 69 – 84 mph. They either found a ground ball hole in the infield or landed as flies into no man’s land between the infield and outfield. The good part is that Imai didn’t have the kind of diminished stuff that results in hard hit balls. The bad part that he needs to improve his strike percentage or else he will always face these risks.
The USMNT win also helped. I’m not a big soccer fan at all. Usually even the “highlights” are kind of boring. (A missed shot 15 feet wide of the net is a highlight? At no point does that ever feel exciting) but the USA Paraguay game was engaging. It felt like watching the US on a power play most of the game.
I was also intrigued by the fact that yellow cards are now apparently video reviewable. There was a point in the game where a Paraguay player flopped and the US player was issued a yellow card. Not only did they video review that and rescind the yellow card, they gave a yellow card to the other guy for flopping. I don’t know how long this change has been in soccer but it’s the best thing ever for the sport.