Without Hunter Brown, the Astros had a glaring need at the top of the starting rotation. And, frankly, most of it. Considering the timing and state of the farm system, it was increasingly doubtful that any improvement would occur from outside of the organization. Any thought of winning meant that any reinforcements would have to come from the inside. Easier said than done.
But, up to now, Spencer Arrighetti has made it look easy.
Entering Thursday, among all starters with at least 40 innings pitched, only Shohei Ohtani had a lower ERA than Arrighetti. That wasn’t a sentence that I expected to write this season.
Arrighetti’s strong start to the season has helped stop the leaking. A starting rotation that was possibly the worst in baseball, or close to it, through April 14, isn’t quite as dreadful now. Yes, this staff is roughly around the middle of the pack in runs allowed since April 15, the date of Arrighetti’s first 2026 start, but that’s still improvement. The Astros aren’t exactly in a position to become picky if the results are positive.
In his eighth start of the season, Arrighetti continued to answer the call, this time against the Rangers. Other than Josh Jung’s solo home run in the second inning, the right-hander didn’t have too many problems. Ultimately, he threw six innings of one-run ball, with the lineup sporting him a 5-1 lead through three innings. It was also encouraging to see him limit the number of walks to only one while striking out three. Control, or lack thereof, has been an occasional issue for Arrighetti, but this start was a step in the right direction.
The question with Arrighetti is, how long will these results last? While ERA has its flaws, he has the lowest ERA-minus-FIP among starters, at -2.39. But for the Astros’ sake, hopefully Arrighetti can keep up this pace.
The lineup did its damage in the first and third innings against Nathan Eovaldi, with Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes each hitting home runs in the first to establish a 3-0 lead. Taylor Trammell and Cam Smith would add on a pair of runs to make it a 5-1 game after three innings. And Smith robbed a home run!
The bullpen would eventually close out this game, with Nate Pearson, Steven Okert, Enyel De Los Santos, and Bryan Abreu closing this one out. Now 26-32, the Astros are only 2.5 games out of first place in the AL West. I wasn’t expecting that, either.
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link
Once the pitchers got under control the walks (there is no defense against walks), our defense became relevant, and everything changed. Our offense continues to be strong. Thank you Miller, thank you Perezchica, and thank you Rodriguez.
Extend this man!
Can Spencer win AL Pitcher of the month for May? Still 3 more days for other pitchers to make their case, but if you go by traditional stats (Wins, ERA) and not peripheral metrics, seems like Spencer would be on top. But only if you look at the traditionals and nothing else.
He won’t get that kind of love from MLB
My guess is he won’t get it either, but lowest ERA, and most wins as a starting pitcher, you gotta reward on the field results. Function over form. Maybe if he racked up more K’s. 22 striekouts is 36th in the AL for the month of May.
Cam’s catch….web gem of the year in contention with Shewmake’s catch at 3rd.
So what’s going on with Spencer? BABiP luck? His expected ERA is 4 something.
lots and lots of walks that he’s managed to leave on base. He has a 4.98 BB/9 rate (which is actually lower than it was before last night’s start.) Among qualified pitchers (he’s about 11 innings short of qualifying because he started the season in AAA), that would rank dead last behind the 71 others.
BABIP is .210
BA – .167
xBA – .231
OBP – .310
xOBP – .366
SLG – .235
xSLG – .370
OPS – .544
xOPS – .736
wOBA – .267
xwOBA – .339
There’s a lot of batted ball luck involved too, but it’s that walk rate which really drive everything up.