Last night, Yordan Alvarez hit his 19th and 20th home runs of the season. He has been on an absolute tear this year.
With 20 home runs in the team’s first 57 games of the season, it’s probably not a big surprise that 57 games (56 of which he played in) is the fastest any Houston Astro has ever reached 20 home runs.
Considering that the franchise record is 47 home runs over a 162 game season by 2000 Jeff Bagwell, 20 home runs in 57 games probably blows the previous team record for fastest to 20 HR out of the water.
It was closer than you might think. 1999 Jeff Bagwell reached 20 home runs in… 58 games (and he played in all 58.)
Needing 28 more home runs over the course of the remaining 105 games of the 2026 regular season, Yordan Alvarez seems like he has strong chance to break the record, and also to be the first Astro to record a 50 HR season.
How does Yordan’s 2026 campaign compare to other great Astros home run seasons? Let’s compare his 2026 season with 8 others: the 7 40 HR seasons in franchise history, and 1994 Jeff Bagwell’s NL MVP season.
These are:
- 1994 Jeff Bagwell – 39 HR (in 115 game season)
- 1997 Jeff Bagwell – 43 HR
- 1999 Jeff Bagwell – 42 HR
- 2000 Jeff Bagwell – 47 HR (franchise record)
- 2000 Richard Hidalgo – 44 HR
- 2002 Lance Berkman – 42 HR
- 2006 Lance Berkman – 45 HR
- 2019 Alex Bregman – 41 HR
A graph of their home run totals over the course of the first 60 games of the season (You may need to click to enlarge to view better) shows that, Yordan’s pace is on top, but others had gotten off to similarly hot starts. ’97 Bagwell, ’00 Hidalgo and ’02 Berkman each had reached 18 or 19 home runs by game #57. ’99 Bagwell had 20 by game #58, thanks to a 3 home run game.
We can also mark out at what point in the season, each of these players reached the 10, 20, 30 and 40 home run milestones.
| 10 HR | 20 HR | 30 HR | 40HR | HR Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 Bagwell | 37 | 69 | 98 | – | 39 (115 game season) |
| 97 Bagwell | 33 | 66 | 117 | 150 | 43 |
| 99 Bagwell | 35 | 58 | 91 | 141 | 42 |
| 00 Bagwell | 33 | 80 | 115 | 132 | 47 |
| 00 Hidalgo | 31 | 65 | 118 | 151 | 44 |
| 02 Berkman | 20 | 62 | 97 | 145 | 42 |
| 06 Berkman | 24 | 72 | 111 | 145 | 45 |
| 19 Bregman | 36 | 74 | 125 | 157 | 41 |
| 26 Yordan | 23 | 57 | – | – | 20 (thru 57 games) |
Of these 8, Yordan was the fastest to 20 HR at 57 games, but ’02 Berkman reached the 10 HR mark fastest. (That’s not to say he reached 10 HR faster than any Astro, but the fastest of these 8. But 10 HR in 20 games, I would guess probably is the franchise fastest to 10.)
’00 Bagwell would eventually hold the single season Astros home record, despite reaching 20 HR in more games than anyone else on this list.
Here is a graph of these 8 seasons and how their home run totals played out the rest of the season. (Again, you may need to click to enlarge to view better.)
There are slumps and jumps, plateaus and bursts, in the running home run totals. If the 1994 season hadn’t been strike-shortened (and if Bagwell didn’t break his hand two days before the strike), who knows what total 1994 Bagwell migth have reached. 1999 Bagwell also experienced a similar home run boom in the time around games 90-100, but slowed down towards the last third of the season.
1994 Bagwell’s broken hand at the end of the shortened season not withstanding, all of these season were marked by relatively good health. None missed or sat out more than 10 games on the season.
That’s likely going to be the ultimate deciding factor on whether Yordan breaks the franchise home run record this season. Can he stay healthy to do it? Give Yordan Alvarez another 100 games in 2026, we’re probably looking at the first 50 home run Astros season.
Astros @ Rangers Game Information and Gamethread Details
Having won 2 of the first 3 games of the 4 game series against the Rangers, the Astros have ensured at least a split. They can take the series outright with another win tonight. The Astros are now 4-2 against the Rangers this season. 3 more wins against their rivals would secure the Silver Boot.
Spencer Arrighetti starts for the Astros, who has been the ace for pitching staff that wasn’t delivering most of the season. Arrighetti has a tiny 1.32 ERA in 7 starts with a 1.195 WHIP. He is striking out 8.8 per 9, but what is concerning is his 5.5 BB/9, the highest ever in his career, as he continues to have trouble locating against left handed batters. So far, he hasn’t let that affect the scoresheet; he’s 6-1 on the season.
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, starts for the Rangers. Eovaldi made the Astros look silly last time out on 5/17/26, throwing 7 scoreless innings, striking out 8 and walking 2. Eovaldi is 5-5 on the season in 10 starts, with a 3.65 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9. He is a workhorse and has gone at least 7 innings in his last 4 starts.
This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.
The Mariners swept the Athletics yesterday and overtook the A’s for first place in the division. Here’s how the AL West standings look coming into tonight:
| W | L | Pct | GB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 28 | 29 | .491 | – |
| ATH | 27 | 29 | .482 | 0.5 |
| TEX | 25 | 30 | .455 | 2.0 |
| HOU | 25 | 32 | .439 | 3.0 |
| LAA | 21 | 35 | .375 | 6.5 |
The Astros are 2.5 games behind the Twins, A’s, and Blue Jays for the 3rd wild card spot.
The Mariners and Athletics do not have games today.
The game will be broadcast at 7:05 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
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Hard to believe Bregman ever hit 40 homers. That tightly wound ball was bonkers.
Hopefully the baseball gods finally grant Yordan a fully healthy season. Maybe Correa offered himself up as an offering.
Bregman’s 2019 didn’t really even feel like a 40 homer season just because he got off to such a slow start and he was overshadowed by
The only other 40 HR season I’ve been around for was Bregman’s. While I love Breggy, Yordan is on another level as a hitter. I think he’s a potential 50 HR guy every season, which you can’t say for many players, and can say for very very few complete hitters who aren’t just really good 3TO dudes every season (ie Schwarber).
Extend him while we can, sell whatever else we must and keep spending to contend. There’s only a few Yordans in every generation.
He needs the Atuve treatment and soon. Come at him with the $350 million price tag at 7 years
Its probably not worth much. But Rome has implied that the most likely outcome for Alvarez is an extension in Houston. I definitely think Crane would do it.
Not much to go on because he doesn’t talk much but Yordan seems like a very humble and loyal person who would want to stay with Houston like Altuve.
Not saying I don’t want him to get his bag but he just doesn’t strike me as one of those “I’m gonna go get my bag” type guys
I wasn’t around for ’02 Berkman, but I’m guessing 10 home runs in 20 games must have gotten Astros super pumped to start the season.
Yordan is the cornerstone of the future, and Jimmy knows this. He will be paid handsomely, and rightfully so. You will never get a return for him that is even. You close the window completely. He has always been the best pure hitter in the league
Trading Yordan Alvarez would be like trading Wayne Gretzky, Shaquille O’Neal or Eric Dickerson in their prime. It’s just not done! … oh wait.
Jim knows what he has. He won’t be willing to part with this cash cow.
why does everyone on this team get so tired all the time?