The last time I previewed a Peter Lambert start, I was sure he wasn’t going to have a good start. I wasn’t very optimistic. Borderline mean, really, but I was just going with what the data told me, and the data from Lambert’s last stint in the majors in 2024, said he was 10th percentile in Chase% and 21st percentile in Whiff%.
I was wrong. Not about him having a bad start. His final line was very pedestrian. 4 earned runs in 5 innings pitched (although these days, pitching 5 innings puts you in the running for “team ace”). I said:
… he doesn’t really fool anyone. Hitters don’t chase, hitters don’t swing and miss, and combined with below average control, that makes for a rough K/BB ratio.
He then proceeded to strike out 8, walk only 1, while generating the 4th most swings and misses of any MLB starter in the 2026 season, after Shota Imanaga, Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease, as Chandler Rome noted on X.
Where did that come from? And can he do it again?
He threw 90 pitches. Batters swung at 49 of them and whiffed on 23 of those. The majority of these came on his 4 seam fastball and changeup, his workhorse pitches, and most notably both those pitches had appreciably more rise in this past start than he had in 2026.
His arm angle dropped around 4 degrees compared to 2024, which may have played a role in that.
That’s not to say that he’s now a good pitcher. He still got hit around when the Cardinals did make contact. But this is something to monitor in today against the Guardians. Missing bats goes a long way towards establishing yourself as an effective pitcher in today’s MLB.
Lambert’s second start of the 2026 season is the rubber match of the 3 game series in Cleveland. He faces Tanner Bibee, 0-2 in 5 starts with a 4.81 ERA in 24.1 innings, with 23 striekouts and 9 walks.
Today’ starting lineups:
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Hmmm. Lambert’s scouting report describes him as “Known for having a good feel for pitching and “pinpoint control,” according to Baseball America.” Also, he generates tons of grounders. There seems to be two versions of Peter Lambert. Let’s see who shows up today.
Naturally it’s cherry picking his best pitches, but if he brings what we see in the video I embedded in this article, good things!
Lambert’s line today is fantastic. In the context of Astros pitching this season.
hell, 6 innings of shutout ball with 8 K? you can slot that into the 2018 rotation if you like.
I am somewhat skeptical of Lambert. But the lower arm angle is interesting. That is something the Astros like to do with their pitchers. The lower arm angle can make the fastball more effective, as it sneaks up on batters. My impression is that the lower arm angle can also make control more erratic.