Trailing 4-3 in the seventh inning, Joe Espada brought in Bryan Abreu to keep things close. Facing the heart of the Cardinals’ lineup, Abreu had a chance to build upon a pair of scoreless appearances in the last five days. The hope was that another scoreless appearance in this kind of situation would become another building block as he looks to leave that horrendous start to his 2026 season in the rearview mirror.
But, the reality: A one-out double, a walk, then a three-run home run to Nolan Gorman.
Dagger.
Something is clearly off with Abreu as a pitcher. The results, or lack thereof, speak for themselves. Of all qualified pitchers, only 13 have seen a larger fastball velocity decline than Abreu from 2025 to 2026. Out-of-zone rate, up by 7.7%. But out-of-zone swing rate, down by 11.5%. In short, he’s missing more outside of the strike zone, but opposing hitters are laying off. But, when they do swing, those hitters are missing less than they did before (-7.7%). Low leverage, high leverage, it doesn’t seem to matter. The results have been absolutely terrible.
I honestly don’t know what the solution looks like. The most likely course of action at this point is just to say something is bothering him. I mean, his velocity is noticeably down, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that he isn’t 100% physically right at the moment. Shut him down and ramp him back up in due time. While it would leave the bullpen with one less veteran arm, it isn’t like his performance has added anything of value thus far in 2026. It also doesn’t hurt that Bennett Sousa is inching closer to a return. But, in any case, Abreu needs a reboot. The Astros can’t keep running him out there and expect things to change all of a sudden, given all these indicators flashing red.
This game was actually a competitive one through the first six innings. While Peter Lambert did allow four earned runs in five innings, he did enough to warrant a second start. He flashed up to 97.4 mph with his four-seam before fading a bit toward the end of his outing. Generated 23 whiffs on 49 swings, accumulating eight strikeouts and only one walk. That changeup was particularly effective with nine whiffs on 17 swings and only an 80.5 mph average exit velocity. He pitched better than the results would initially indicate. Ultimately, I saw enough that he intrigues me a bit more. For a rotation sorely lacking at the moment, it is fine to take a chance on some potential, even if unlikely, upside here.
Unfortunately, the lineup has continued to cool off a bit. Three of Houston’s four runs were scored via the solo home run variety (Christian Vázquez, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Altuve) against Kyle Leahy across five innings. But it was enough to keep the Astros in the game, with St. Louis only holding a one-run lead entering that fateful seventh inning. Then Abreu walked on to the mound…
Down 7-3, Houston only had so many chances to stage another comeback, however unlikely it was. But J.P. France couldn’t help in that cause, allowing the Cardinals to score another two runs in the eighth to make it a 9-3 deficit. And I hope France learns not to leave a 91 mph sinker where he did to Iván Herrera again anytime soon.
Taylor Trammell’s RBI single in the eighth would drive in the fourth run of the game for the Astros, but the rest of the lineup failed to capitalize. Otherwise, it was an uneventful conclusion, with Houston falling to 8-13 on the season. Another disappointing night for the pitching staff in conjunction with a lineup that has regressed lately. That isn’t a winning combination for a club still struggling to find its footing in 2026.
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link
Lambert is an intriguing project that was rushed to the majors out of necessity. He needs more time in the minors to figure out a few things. I give him a maybe. But, the Astros seem to have too many “maybes,” too many “has beens,” too many in the IL again, and too little time for all the good pieces to come together.
So there’s been so much movement lately it was hard for me to keep track. What is our current rotation at the moment?
LMJ, Burrows, Arrighetti, Gordon, Weiss, Lambert?
Triple A depth now just includes Jason Alexander and Miguel Ullola with Nate Pearson nearing a rehab assignment, and Ethan Pecko currently out on a rehab assignment in A-ball.
Of that group only Arrighetti had a quality start the last outing I believe. Hopefully, the 2nd time through is a charm, at least for the likes of Gordon, Weiss, and Lambert.
It seems like LMJ will continue to do LMJ things with a good outing every now and then mixed in with several mediocre to poor outings. Burrows hasn’t found it yet. The offspeed stuff is good, but fastball’s getting hit pretty hard.
I believe that Arrighetti will join LMJ and Burrows as a mainstay in the rotation. Since there’s no indication that our IL SP’s are close to returning it would seem like Weiss, Gordon, and Lambert are auditioning for a longer tryout in the rotation, especially if/when the Astros reduce their rotation back to a 5-man staff or IL pitchers start returning. Weiss and Lambert have good stuff, just need to consistently find the strike zone. I have less faith in Gordon making it.
I had something else going on and only watched the game through Lambert’s outing. I know what Abreu’s line ended up being, but what was his velocity like. It seems like it’s been down some this season.
Velocity was down (95). And he just isn’t scaring opposing hitters.
I read the post game write-up this morning. It seems that Abreu is chalking the decrease in velocity to inconsistent mechanics which can be true. However, more times than not it seems to indicate an injury exists. Hoping it’s the former but expecting the latter, especially with the way Astros luck has been going the last few seasons on the injury front.
I bet you Abreu is going on the IL. I don’t know if he’s actually injured or not but the Astros sometime seem to treat sucking like an injury.
Agree that Abreu is the most disappointing aspect of this loss. As Bogusevic said in the post game, the wildness and walks might be expected, but the opposing hitters looking very comfortable swinging at his pitches is something you didn’t see in the past. He probably needs a MRI and a IL stint.
Not all that disappointed by Lambert–but I wasn’t expecting much, and he out performed my expectations. I feel pretty good about Lambert’s and Weiss’ stuff. What can I say about France? He is a determined guy, but he probably needs to be in Sugar Land with an “open in emergency” buttom for call ups.