The Launch Angle

There are forty games left in the Houston Astros’ 2026 regular season, and the outlook is miles better than it was forty games into the season.

Forty games into the season, the Astros were in 4th place in the division, 16-24, already 5.5 games back from the division lead, with far and away the worst pitching in the majors.

Forty games into the season, there were debates on what degree the team should sell and rebuild at the deadline, and whether the Astros should go so far as to entertain offers for Yordan Alvarez.

Forty games into the season, The Launch Angle had a Batting Around roundtable, and to call the mood of the commentary “bleak” would be an understatement.

Forty games into the season wasn’t even a nadir, the team would go 1-4 in games 41-45.

The Houston Astros were not a good team.

Today though, with forty games left in the season, the Houston Astros. . . are still not that good of a team, but they’re at least mildly better. They’re no longer below .500. They’re a whopping 2 games over .500 at 62-60, and no other team in the division can say that.

The Rangers lost to the Angels last night 7-0 and are now 5-10 in their last 15 games, putting them 2 games behind the Astros for the division.

The Angels and Athletics are not relevant, but that Angels win pushed them out of last place for the first time since May 12. The Athletics, the division leader for most of May, now has sole possession of last place.

The Mariners, a preseason favorite, not only to win the division, but to again contend for the AL pennant, are spiraling. They broke a 6 game losing skid, scraping out a 1-0 win over the Yankees in their series finale, but that’s still only their 6th win in their last 21 games, dropping them 5 behind the Astros.

The Astros are also only 1 game back from the AL Central division leader, the Chicago White Sox (62-58), who, like the Astros, are the only team in their division above .500, although the 60-61 Tigers are rising quickly in the standings, in the middle of a 9-3 run.

So despite their unimpressive record, the Astros find themselves in very good position. “We are the current masters of the kids’ table,” sts060 commented on the TLA Discord server. That’s true, but hey, they serve the same turkey and stuffing at the kids’ table as they do at the grown ups’ table, just on plastic plates.

Fangraphs Playoff Odds now has a favorable outlook for the Astros now that they are in this position. They put them at 64.7% to make the postseason, and 53.5% to win the division. The Rays at 74-46 with a 6.5 game lead over the Yankees, currently have the best odd to secure of the two AL 1st round byes, but the Astros currently have the second highest odds at 29.2%… despite projecting to finish with 82.2 wins. Imagine that. This team could finish 82-80, barely technically a winning season, and still get a bye.

These are just projections and possibilities. They’re in good position, but many a 3 year old horse were in position at the mile mark at Churchill Downs only to see the roses slip away in the last quarter mile.

They still need to plow through the last quarter of the season, “the back forty.”

Here’s how the remainder of the season lines up:

The Mariners are freefalling, but making up 5 games in the standings is still doable with 40 games left (38 for Seattle), especially with 5 games left directly against the Astros. They’ve already won 7 of the 8 games they’ve played against Houston, so the season series and tiebreaker belongs to them.

This upcoming 3 game series at home against Seattle could either bury them, or let them right back into the race and possibly even the driver’s seat. Fangraphs Playoff Odds, despite them being 8 games below .500 still has the Mariners with a 21.7% chance to win the division. If they get swept in the series, that would crater to next to zero. If they sweep the series, then despite still being 2 games behind the Astros, their chances to win the division might actually surpass Houston’s, especially with the tiebreaker in hand.

It’s time to go for the kill, and based on how the Astros are managing their rotation, they know this. If you go by their most recent order, Ronel Blanco, Peter Lambert and Cristian Javier ought to be the next 3 starting pitchers up for this rotation. Hayden Wesneski and Hunter Brown pitched in the last series, and they went with a bullpen game in the series finale against the Giants.

They are bypassing Blanco and Javier though, and sending out the 3 guys who have been their best pitchers against Seattle: Lambert, Wesneski and Brown. Chandler Rome wrote up a piece on the Athletic discussing this; it reveals what they think of Blanco and Javier. They haven’t trusted them to pitch a third time through the order, and they’re not trusting them to pitch in this Seattle series.

Peter Lambert starts this first game against Seattle. Rome also discusses how managing Lamberts innings will be key. He’ll soon have pitched more innings this season than he has since 2018 in the minors. He didn’t look sharp in his last outing, taking 97 pitches to go 5 innings. He allowed just 3 runs, 2 earned, but with 3 walks and 5 hits, there was ample traffic on the bases. Was any attributable to the season wearing on him? Possibly, but the Astros both need to limit his innings, while also not being able to afford to. Lambert has been the team’s best pitcher in 2026.

George Kirby takes the mound for Seattle. He’s pitched pretty well in 2026, with a 3.68 ERA in 22 starts, going 8-9. While neither number is terrible, his 7.6 K/9 and his 1.27 WHIP are career worsts. He has a 1.9 BB/9 rate, which is high for him, but still excellent.

He’s pitched twice against Houston this year. On April 13, the Astros couldn’t get him off the mound until the 8th inning. He went 7.2 IP, allowing just 2 runs, 7 hits, 1 walk and striking out 6, as the Mariners won 6-2. On May 11, he logged another win against the Astros, allowing 1 run in 5 innings of work, with 7 hits, 2 walks, striking out 7.

Kirby hasn’t been the problem for the Mariners. It’s been their offense. They’re last in the AL in batting average, BABIP, runs, RBI and 2nd to last in OBP, SLG, wOBA. Cal Raleigh gone from MVP level in 2025 (168 OPs+) to near unplayable (63 OPS+) in 2026. This video Jeff Passan made summarizes the state of the Mariners offense pretty well:

Mariners @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

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If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)

Feature photo from  @astros on X,  Source Link. (It’s a photo from November 2016, when they got rid of Tal’s Hill. But I liked the imagery considering the title of this piece.)