The Launch Angle

The Astros are officially one quarter of the way through the 2026 season now, with a record of 16-25 as they start another 4 game series against the Mariners, this time at home.

This isn’t the way any of us thought the season would go, based on our preseason predictions. It’s time for some course correction at the Launch Angle, as the TLA staff discusses some of the major topics of debate about the 2026 Astros

Is this Season Salvageable?

Cody Poage: Part of me still wants to say, yes, this season remains salvageable. The AL West, on the whole, is disappointing so far. And the AL Wild Card under the expanded postseason formats certainly helps. But, realistically, I don’t think so with the current state of the pitching staff. You hope Hunter Brown can return without issues, but hope isn’t a foolproof plan. You could squint with a healthy Brown, better luck from Burrows, with Lambert and Arrighetti as your top four starters, but even that feels light.

The bullpen, even with a healthy Josh Hader, may not have the depth, especially if Bryan Abreu remains a shell of his former self. If anything keeps them in the running for a winning record or even a postseason berth, it is that the lineup continues to be a top-five to top-ten unit, with the pitching staff regressing closer to even just average. But that feels like a big if right now and would likely require some help from division opponents to make it happen. In other words, not likely.

Clack: The odds aren’t great, but yes it’s possible (though not probable). A lot depends on other teams in the AL West and if they continue to be mediocre or worse. The Astros currently are around 12% playoff probability, and teams with worse probabilities have ended up in the playoffs. The 2021 Atlanta Braves won the World Series, and their playoff probability stood at 8% at mid-season when they made decisions to acquire cheap under-performing rental players to replace an extreme number of injuries. So, there is precedent to say it happened.

I usually view 10% – 15% as the bottom range of playoff probability to justify continuing forward, striving to rebound. Obviously the pitching is the biggest impediment to an Astros W/L rebound. Brown and Hader have to return as effective pitchers “on time.” Imai needs to perform effectively. Burrows is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, and hopefully he turns around. Can Lambert and Arrighetti continue their good performance? Good question, but it’s also very important to determining whether the season is salvageable. So, yes, the season may be salvageable but a bunch of things need to go right.

l4blitzer: Well, if there is anything we’ve learned about baseball, it is that it is a long season, and anything can and will happen. If nothing else, the Astros have shown they can rebound from pitiful starts to get back into the playoff chase (starting every season this decade at least 2 games under .500, the 2024 season, etc).

Also consider that the AL West, along with the AL writ large really, really…sucks, then Houston is far from out of the game. Granted, Houston’s nightmare injury situation along with weakened depth at the farm system level along with a horrendous pitching staff, which this part is a rather new phenomenon for the franchise, is going to make any rebound incredibly difficult, to say nothing of whatever chance Houston might have once they would meet a playoff caliber team.

It is too early to throw in the towel. However, if Houston is still bringing up the rear of the AL come the end of June, then we will have a very different conversation.

Theo Gerome: Yes, of course it is. It’s by no means guaranteed, but I don’t see any reason to be writing things off completely in the middle of May. Especially when there are only two teams in the AL more than 2 games above .500, neither of whom play in the same division as the Astros.

I’ve suspected that the further expansion of Wild Cards has introduced even more uncertainty than we realize into the playoff race process, as evidenced by the number of unusual occurrences we’ve seen in the short time since it happened (like the 84-win Diamondbacks winning the pennant in 2023, or the Mets and Astros’ both missing last year after strong starts). But even leaving that aside, this is a team that’s only 3.0 games out of a playoff spot and 5.5 games out of the division lead with 120+ games to go, including plenty of head-to-head match-ups remaining against the teams ahead of them, all of whom are just as flawed in their own ways.

Scott Barzilla: In terms of the playoffs, I will say no. I could foresee them getting back to .500 if everything breaks right but there is not enough pitching to play what would amount to 95 win baseball just to get to 85 wins overall. I think some pieces can be salvaged. Abreu could eventually return to form. Imai could become a useful pitcher and Burrows can build on his last outing, but the odds of ALL of those things happening is low.

mhatter106: Mathematically? Sure. Realistically, no. Look, I like to hope as much as the next person, and I can see how bad the rest of the AL is and the rest of the AL West is. But those other teams are stuck in low gear. I’m not entirely sure it’s going to get much better for the Astros.

What is the usual response for fans who insist you manage April games the same way as September games because they count just as much? The response is that you can’t treat them the same way, because you need those April games to tell you what you have for the rest of the race. Well, the Astros have now seen what they have, and specifically from a pitching perspective, it’s not enough, and there aren’t enough parts in stock to make it enough this year, even with Brown and Hader coming back.

I’m not saying the team should tank. Each game, I still want to see the Astros do what they can to get that W, but this team doesn’t have the pitching to be consistently competitive the rest of the way. Even if you brought Brown back, you’d still be relying on flawed pitchers Spencer Arrighetti and Peter Lambert to carry the rotation.

I’m sorry, but the 2026 Houston Astros are not a good team.

bilbos: No. After years of pitching staffs who pitched below their ERA weight, regression has come and this year, the no name, quad A pitchers are pitching like that. Except for Hunter Brown returning, there is little chance the situation will improve enough to salvage the season, and Brown alone isn’t near enough. A .500 season is best case. And this doesn’t even mention the shallow lineup. Truth is, we’ re finally seeing the results of years of a subpar farm and poor drafting results. Long gone are the days when every year the Astros would bring up a Keuchel, Altuve, Springer, Correa, McCullers, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez.

Seth Schwartzberg: I think it is absolutely possible. While the team itself doesn’t seem to be getting better right now, neither do any of the other teams in the AL West. Even after just over 40 games this season, the Astros are still only back 5.5 games in the division right now.

The biggest key will be health. Injuries have devastated the pitching staff, and getting arms like Hunter Brown, Josh Hader and Cristian Javier back will immediately make the team more competitive. However, losing Carlos Correa for the season leaves a major hole in both the lineup and the clubhouse leadership, setting the stage for guys like Pena to step up.

The Astros need to lean into the offense. Yordan Alvarez has been one of the few bright spots and is producing at an MVP level, but the team still needs support from veterans like Jose Altuve as well as more consistency from the younger hitters.

If Houston remains well below .500 by late June, it may not make sense to trade future assets for short-term help like Brown has been known to do in past seasons. However, if the Astros can climb back into the Wild Card race, or even into the driver season of the AL West, the weakness of the division could give this team a serious chance.

Would you fire Joe Espada and/or Dana Brown? Is there any way either are retained after this season?

Cody Poage: It feels like Joe and Dana are a package deal at this point. Both are in the last year of their respective contracts. Other than a comeback that leads to a postseason berth, I don’t see how both will return next year.

But if I had to pick one, even if things continue to go south, who might stick around, it would be Dana. While I certainly have questions about this org’s evaluation process with him in charge, it is too soon to judge its 2024 or 2025 drafts. Even the 2023 draft probably receives an incomplete at this point.

And I think there is something to the thought about what Dana would’ve done in certain moments if Jim Crane were a bit more hands-off (2nd JV trade, Hader, Correa, etc). That said, I’m not a fan of certain processes since Dana has been hired. I’m not a fan of how he manages the fringes of the roster, namely games with a shorter bench or bullpen, keeping an injured guy on the active roster in the hope he can return soon, only to place him on the IL eventually.

I am a bit more lenient with Joe since he wasn’t the one who assembled this roster. Overall, I think he is a fine manager. Do I quibble with certain decisions, especially with the bullpen? Definitely, but I do that with any manager. That said, it feels like this team sometimes lacks that fire. Is this Joe’s fault? Probably not, but something feels lacking with this team’s personality.

Personally, if things continue down this path, I’d move on from both of them. Another poor season after a disappointing 2025 would likely spell the end for many managers. And I’d like to see this front office reestablish itself as one of the leaders in baseball in trying out new ideas and methods. While I think Dana’s eye for talent is obviously real, again, I have questions about the processes with him in charge.

Clack: I agree mostly with Cody. I would prefer to wait until the end of the season to make decisions on Dana and Joe, since their contracts expire then. Unless things get better (as in a rebound), both are vulnerable to being let go. If things get really bad, I suppose in-season firings are possible (like we have seen in Philly and Boston). But firing the GM mid-season is probably unrealistic and impractical. And the problem with firing Espada in-season is that we don’t really have many options for replacement, other than caretaker managers drawn from the coaches. I think Espada is fine for a stable, winning team. But I don’t know if he is the right person to deal with the current problems that seem to have triggered a downward spiral on the team.

l4blitzer: I don’t know what good it would do Houston to fire either right now. This Houston team’s flaws are such that a change in leadership is not going to jump start an underachieving team, ala the 2022 Phillies. Firing Brown might be the right move, especially if this season devolves into a race for the number #1 draft pick in 2027, but an in-season GM sacking does nothing to help this squad. Espada does not seem to have lost the team and he can’t exactly do all that much to cover for a horrid pitching situation. Sure, you can second guess in-game decisions and lineup actions, but the manager is only able to do so much. Granted, Houston may just let both go after the season ends anyway, and it saves the team some money on buyouts. However, right now, firing either would be the equivalent of firing Captain Smith after the Titanic hit the iceberg and then Ismay ordering Chief Officer Wilde to fix the problem.

Theo Gerome: I actually think Joe Espada has done a decent job holding things together the last two years in the face of injuries. Taking last year’s decimated roster to one game shy of the postseason feels almost miraculous in retrospect, and I think the team’s strong offense this year is also impressive. Juggling all the moving parts and working around the injury gaps is no small feat. The pitching side looks does look rougher in comparison, but second-guessing there feels less useful because of how often the alternatives to Espada’s choices have also struggled. Everyone on the pitching staff looks rough right now, and I’m not sure there are obvious good options there that he hasn’t been taking.

Which does bring us to the roster construction. I do feel bad for Dana Brown, because he’s clearly had to do a lot to work around Jim Crane and his advisors’ decisions. We also haven’t really had time to see his prospect evaluation pay off, which was supposed to be his strength. The roster does feel rather snakebitten by injuries the last two years, and he’s done a decent job patching holes as they arise on basically no notice and with few options.

That said, coming off a season as injury-filled as 2025 and running into the same issue in 2026 does make it feel like there might be underlying process issues here. There probably should have been a little more depth there given what we saw last year, especially on the pitching side. I don’t think I’d axe either of them yet, but if someone is on the hot seat, it feels silly to blame Espada for cycling through a myriad of suboptimal bullpen and rotation options rather than the guy who handed him all of those suboptimal options.

Scott Barzilla: I absolutely would fire them sooner than later. I’d like to see if Omar Lopez is a managerial candidate or not. I think Brown is more pressing. I don’t want him making major decisions and this season needs some major decisions. If you are selling then who do you sell and for what? Who are you drafting? How are we going to salvage Imai. It just seems like every major decision is the exact wrong thing to do.

mhatter106: Joe needs to go. That doesn’t mean I think he’s to blame for all or even most of what’s wrong with the Houston Astros, but I also don’t think that he’s been so great that the Astros should go out of their way to protect him. Making sweeping changes sends a message that where the Astros are and what they have become is not acceptable. Having Omar Lopez, who just won the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela, available to step in as interim manager should make dismissing Espada a little easier.

Also, while I don’t think Joe is the main problem, I also feel comfortable ruling him out as a solution too. His clubhouse management hasn’t been on Dusty’s level and his game management hasn’t been on A.J.’s. Watching Joe leave Kai Wei Teng in for the fourth yesterday against the Reds only makes me more comfortable with letting Joe go.

Dana, I’m not as bullish on calling for his dismissal. But if there’s a plan to put in a whole new regime, I’m not going to protest his termination, provided that new regime isn’t Jeff Bagwell.

bilbos: Firing either during the season would only appease the angry mob rather than improve the team. Espada will be gone at the end of the season. If I’m right about the poor farm system being the root of the problem, that predates Brown and he hasn’t been around long enough to fix it. But he’ll probably be gone too. The 2026 apparent failure of pitching analytics will be laid on Brown.

Seth Schwartzberg: I really don’t think that either of them need to go quite yet. I think that ever since they both have come in, the teams that have been put together are almost always struck with some sort of bad luck. While losing someone like Kyle Tucker in FA was not a great look for Brown, I think that he has made moves that have helped the team more than they have hurt it.

As for Espada, same thing. He has had nothing but bad luck with the teams he has had to put out on the field since coming to Houston. Between injuries and players leaving, he always seems to have to field a different nine guys every night. Same goes with his managment of the pitching staff. While I think that there are times when he pulls guys early or leaves guys in too long, almost every manager does that. With the bullpens that he has to work with, to his credit, its hard to manage it well.

What should the Astros’ path be going forward for the rest of the 2026 season?

Cody Poage: Depends on the health of the roster and if this team can survive this upcoming stretch of games without giving up ground in the AL West. But realistically, it is hard to envision this year’s team taking a similar path to the 2024 team. For one, that roster was better and deeper. If it becomes clear that this season is becoming a lost cause, it is more about development than at any time since 2014. Maximize opportunities for Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, and others. Entertain serious trade conversations for Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and any other veteran not named Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Hunter Brown. You don’t say no about anyone, and be willing to listen, but it would have to be a real haul to trade Alvarez and/or Brown.

Reset the books a bit with the new CBA incoming (hopefully) for 2027. A rebuild isn’t necessary, but a retool is certainly in order.

Clack: It depends on where they are in the standings (i.e., games behind in the AL West). If the team is in the process of rebounding (e.g., closed the gap with the top ALW team), then a strategy of effectively standing pat might be my preference.

If the team has gotten competitively worse, the mid-season decisions change. I might favor trading Bryan Abreu and perhaps other relievers like Okert or King. I think there is a case to be made for trading Jeremy Pena, since it appears unlikely that he will be a long term player for the Astros. If the trade return was high enough, Paredes is another possible trade piece. Ideally, I would consider having a simueltaneous buyer and seller role. A pitcher from AAA prepared for the MLB would be a priority buying target. The Twins trade to acquire Joe Ryan (a AAA pitcher) in 2021 and put him in their rotation for the remainder of the season would be a good model to follow. If Pena is traded, perhaps the Astros can target a young AA or AAA shortstop in a separate trade. Is Dana Brown the best guy to execute these kind of strategies? I can’t say “yes,” comfortably. Yeah, I would prefer more creative trading strategies than what we’ve seen from him–but given the timing, there’s not really much choice.

l4blitzer: A lot is going to depend on what happens between now and the 4th of July. If the AL remains so bleh and Houston can crawl back to just over/around .500 by then, you can continue to play for the here and now, looking for key personnel to regain health (a huge maybe around here) and get hot at the right time. Houston does have the playoff warhorses to make some noise should they get to the dance. However, if Houston remains where they are now (well under .500, brutally injured and with a pitching staff holding a slow-pitch softball-type ERA), then you probably should entertain the idea of a reset, looking to add to the farm system, shed some needless moneys, and retool for 2027 and beyond.

Theo Gerome: “The season is salvageable” is obviously not a guarantee of anything. If things don’t improve by the midway point, the most immediate plan is still to start listening on guys like Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, and Christian Vázquez. But until that point, keep running with your best roster and hope it gels. Hopefully the pitching staff firms up as Mike Burrows and Spencer Arrighetti find their footing and the injuries start to return; there are enough names and talent there that some of them should stick. And I think that a more stable rotation will also help the bullpen substantially, since I think a big part of their struggles was being overtaxed at the start of the year thanks to an abundance of short starts.

Scott Barzilla: The Astros should retool to compete as much next year and beyond. Any asset not likely to be here after 2028 should be shopped and shopped aggressively. Play the young outfielders as much as possible and give them plenty of runway to succeed or not succeed. This farm system desperately needs a shot in the arm.

mhatter106: Keep trying to win games, see what happens, and at the very least make the attempt to satisfy the fans who are still watching the games because they like baseball. When the deadline comes, sell off anything not tied down at the end of the year. If the climate seems like a 2027 season is unlikely due to CBA negotiations, trade anyone set to hit free agency at the end of the 2027 season too.

I had previously brought up the topic of whether to trade Yordan Alvarez. I was on the fence, but after the discussion in the TLA comments, I’ve been convinced that there’s no way you’d ever get adequate return for Yordan. You get someone like Yordan maybe once every 15-20 years. Hang on to him, and build around him.

bilbos: Tough question. Tanking is the easy answer, but do you really sell Yordan Alvarez, or condemn beloved Houston icons like Altuve or Correa to 2011 style historic losing? ( You can’t trade them) But the Astros currently are this bad, with a top 10 salary level, and too many fading players. If not a total rebuild and getting real young prospects, continual mediocrity and overpaying for aging free agents looks like the only alternative.

Seth Schwartzberg: This all depends on if/when guys can get healthy. I think that if this team can start to see guys come back and play the game we know they can, like Pena and Hader, then I think this is a team that has no reason not to aim for a World Series. I think that if that is the case, the team should look to try and trade one or two of the million and a half arms that have appeared on the mound this year for them, with the hopes of getting another starter or a more defined outfielder.

What are you watching for in the Astros in the rest of the season?

Cody Poage: Believe it or not, but I am intrigued by certain arms in the org. Peter Lambert has to continue to start until proven otherwise. Spencer Arrighetti is finally healthy, so I am excited to see what he can do. Kai-Wei Teng has proven reliable thus far. Mike Burrows still has that potential. Not to mention some of the young arms in the farm.

And, of course, Yordan Alvarez mashing and seeing how many hits Jose Altuve finishes with. While the season might prove to be a massive disappointment, there are still players worth watching.

Clack: I think the outfield in an interesting rebuilding project in process. Brice Matthews, Zach Dezenzo, Joey Loperfido, Cam Smith, and Zach Cole are all young talented outfielders who should get considerable run this season. It will be fascinating to see what they can do and who comes out ahead by season end.

l4blitzer: It will be interesting to see if the pitching staff can settle back down to become more like what we’ve seen the past few years. They won’t lead the league, but they have the ability to get back to mid-level, and with an offense that seems to be playing better than whatever that was we were subjected to last season, that could make for at least a competitive, entertaining team, even if they are far from the championship juggernaut they have been the past decade. Also, it will be interesting to see if the offense can maintain its generally higher level of play. Yes, a lot of that relies on Alvarez’s health, but if the team can continue to be a top hitting/OBP/run scoring team, it would certainly make this season a little more watchable.

Theo Gerome: Obviously Yordan Alvarez, since he looks like a serious MVP contender regardless of how the rest of the team does. But it’s been exciting to watch the young outfielders during their flashes of brilliance, and I hope at least a few of them get more consistent, it could turn things into a great year; Cam Smith primarily, but also Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, and Zach Dezenzo. And I hope Tatsuya Imai can put it together and come back strong, that start against the A’s was fun and the team could desperately use more of that. I’m rooting for him.

Scott Barzilla: I’m treating the rest of the season almost like an extended spring training. I firmly believe you can take something positive from every game. Maybe a reliever has a scoreless frame. Maybe a hitter has a great at bat or a fielder makes a great play. It’s about imagining which of these guys will be integral parts of the next great Astros team. It’s how we made it through 2011-2013.

mhatter106: I’m basically just tuning in to watch players whose last names start with “Al”. Okay, well maybe not Nick Allen, but Yordan Alvarez is still exciting to watch even on a losing team.

I’ll also never stop cheering for Altuve. At this point, I don’t even want him to get walks anymore, just get hits. It hurts to watch Altuve not produce hits the way he used to, and it hurts to think that this season he’ll probably drag his career batting average under .300 (It’s .302 right now), but I really want to see him get to 3000 (He’s 577 hits away right now).

bilbos: If the Astros have a chance to build for the future, it begins with their two young, round #1 draftees, Cam Smith and Brice Mathews. If they are players a team can build around, we should start to see that soon. So far though, no.

Seth Schwartzberg: I wanna see how this staff develops. With the amount of new arms that we are seeing each game, I am interested to see how Espada and the pitching staff develop as the year goes on. Some of the guys in the bullpen don’t seem to have defines jobs or roles yet it seems like and I am curious to see how it all plays out with them.

Between new arms like Murray and VanWay and some of the faces we are used to seeing by now like King, Ort and Blubaugh. How will each of them fit into this mess that the Astros are calling a bullpen as of now?

Post in the comments what your thoughts are to these topics of discussions and any other opinions you might have now that we are 25% through the season!

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