If you want to know how I was feeling about this game before the Astros tied it up and Christian Walker’s walk-off blast, here was my working title for tonight’s recap: “Keep Bryan Abreu Away From The Mariners, Astros Lose 7-5 In Extra Innings.”
Thankfully, you don’t have to read my opinions about Abreu and his woes against the Mariners dating back to 2025. I’ll save that for another day. But allowing nine earned runs across five games to arguably your main division rival is never a good look. I guess Joe Espada is serious about keeping Josh Hader strictly to three-out scenarios unless it is truly a win-or-go-home situation.
In any case, the Astros walked off the Mariners Friday night to open a pivotal nine-game homestand. This lineup scored five runs against George Kirby. That’s crazy to me. Houston has done that only once since, on May 22, 2025, in a start by Kirby where he gave up more than two earned runs. That was a five-run outburst, too. And Yordan Alvarez is the first Astro ever to go yard off of Kirby.
Seattle scored two runs in the first inning to take a quick 2-0 lead, thanks in part to a questionable check swing from Randy Arozarena that helped set the stage for the Mariners. Alvarez’s solo shot would put the Astros on the board in the bottom half of the first, with a four-run output, all with two outs, occurring in the second to give Houston a 5-2 lead (Cam Smith’s RBI triple, Jeremy Peña’s RBI single, and Isaac Paredes’ two-run single).
The Astros wouldn’t score again until the bottom half of the tenth inning, although the Mariners gradually chipped away at the lead. While Peter Lambert again didn’t have his best, he provided five innings of two-run ball. He avoided additional damage when it mattered. Victor Robles would tag Bennett Sousa for a run in the sixth to shorten the lead to 5-3. Steven Okert would follow up and throw a scoreless seventh. Alas, Bryan Abreu had the eighth, and you can see where this is going.
The Astros entered the top half of the eighth with an 80.1% win expectancy. It would peak for the inning at 84.3% once Brandan Donovan grounded out for the second out; although his groundout would cut the lead even further, it was now 5-4. But it would quickly bottom out with Brock Rodden, in his Major League debut, hitting a two-out ground rule double to tie the game (5-5). That win expectancy would bottom out at 48.7% before Cole Young popped out for the third out to mercifully end the top half of the inning.
With the lineup failing to score in the eighth, Hader was brought in to preserve the tie in the ninth, and he did it. Albeit with some heartburn, getting Brendan Donovan with two runners on base and two outs. Unfortunately, the Astros couldn’t score in the bottom of the ninth, and Enyel De Los Santos promptly allowed two runs to cough up the lead.
Trailing 7-5 entering the bottom half of the tenth, it didn’t look good for the Astros. The team’s win expectancy was only 11.7% when Alvarez strolled to the plate to lead it off. His ground out would move Peña, who was immediately driven in by Paredes’ RBI single. Taylor Trammell would strike out for the second out, putting the pressure on Jose Altuve to keep the game alive. And credit to him and Daulton Varsho for both hitting below-the-zone sliders from Andrés Muñoz for base hits, with the latter driving in Nick Allen to tie the game. We all know what happened next.
The Astros are now 63-60, and this loss pushes the Mariners six games back in the division standings. The Rangers are currently losing 8-3 to the A’s, so Houston might find itself with a three-game lead over their closest competition for the AL West shortly. While the AL West doesn’t exactly house the best teams in the sport, someone has to win the division. A strong homestand would set the Astros up nicely in that pursuit.
Feature photo from Astros on X
What are the other candidates for win of the year? This one, the Yordan walk off home run win against Tampa on July 4, the combined no hitter vs Texas… what other ones make the list?
Those are main contenders to me. Can’t really think of any others beyond those.
I just searched for “win of the year” on the discord to see what other games elicited that language.
– 6/3 – astros score 6 in the bottom of the 8th to win 11-9. It was a skenes start too (before he fell off a cliff)
– 5/5 – lambert outduels Ohtani in 2-1 win vs LAD
In hindsight, Lambert out dueling Ohtani might be, in the words of Gandalf, the “turn of the tide” of the Astros season.
There was still a lot of losing after that Dodger series. I still think it was the cubs sweep that was followed by the Imai combined no hitter
That’s true. They were 2-5 through the Cincinnati and Seattle series immediately afterwards. But followed up with a 7-3 road trip through Minnesota, Chicago, and Texas.
I would say Lambert outdueling Ohtani was the turn of the tide for the pitching staff, at least to start the gradual climb up from worst ERA in history contender.
The Cubs sweep and no-no was the turning point for climbing back out of the below .500 pit.
April was so bad the team did need multiple turns of multiple tides to make it above .500 😂
Updated Fangraphs playoff odds after astros win and rangers loss
Division odds jumped almost 10% to 63.3%.
Now 72.5% to make postseason and 35% to get a bye.
Well, I am going to crash the party. For 7 innings, from 3rd. to 9th., the Astros were in a catatonic state. Lousy defense, base running and, particularly, ugly at bats with the mandatory first pitch pop outs. Who is supposed wake up the team, to snap them out of their stupor? Anybody? Our comatose manager, maybe?
While the Mariners were chipping away our well deserved advantage, the Astros were drifting aimlessly through 7 innings.
This situation is becoming a trademark of the Espada’s Astros. Boring, uninspired, and lifeless.
Well, we won. Cheers!
I mean, we obvisouly sent Abreu out there, letting him implode, just so we could dump 5 runs in the bottom of the 10th.
PLayer(s) of the game: Bryan Abreu & De Los Santos – Both for setting up what was was a good chance to win, then flushing that shit, to setting us up for a chance at a huge Christian Walker walkoff. Love that for him by the way.