The Launch Angle

Throughout the offseason, one message kept surfacing: the Astros were intent on adding to their starting rotation. Easy enough to address, right? Not quite, once you factor in the financial constraints. Whether self-imposed or not, the financial constraints matter. If the mandate is truly to avoid the $244 million first tax threshold for the 2026 season, Dana Brown and the front office would be forced to operate with efficiency in mind. The dollars and cents made it hard to see a reunion with someone like Framber Valdez. That’s why we saw the signings of Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss in addition to the trade for Mike Burrows, who will likely make a combined $5 million this year.

Tatsuya Imai’s signing, though, somewhat cuts against that logic. I’ve already written a bit about the financial impact on Houston’s player payroll in light of Imai’s contract, so I won’t rehash all those details here. But Crane hasn’t been afraid to stay around that first threshold line, eventually exceeding it if the right opportunity presents itself. However, I venture to speculate that another trade or two might happen to shed some additional payroll. The contract structure, however, isn’t all that burdensome for the Astros. Also, keep in mind that the posting fee ($10 million) doesn’t count against the CBT. All of these factors combined make it a bit clearer why this deal was more palatable for Crane.

Enough about the money for now. Imai unquestionably elevates the floor and ceiling of a rotation that entered the offseason with more uncertainty than stability. To be clear, there is still some uncertainty, even with Imai himself. Only 5’11”, the right-hander’s size and command issues in the past have been held against him, fair or not. However, his strike-throwing has gradually improved in each subsequent season since 2020.

One question moving forward is whether his strike-throwing abilities will suffer against Major League hitters compared to their counterparts in NPB in a different environment and a slightly different baseball, which is a valid concern. But Imai’s raw stuff is apparent in the film, with a repertoire that includes a four-seam fastball, slider, splitter, curveball, and changeup. Of those offerings, Imai’s best pitches are his four-seam and slider, which he has utilized to significant effect in recent seasons in NPB. In the case of his four-seam, Imai’s iteration — stop me if you’ve heard this before about pitchers from the Astros — has a noticeably flat approach to the plate, exhibiting effectiveness in the high strike zone.

But the best pitch in generating whiffs in Imai’s arsenal is his slider, with noticeable arm-side movement involved that can reach almost 90 mph at its peak velocity. You can already see it as an effective option against left-handed hitters, with that breaking action in conjunction with his elevated four-seam fastball, high in the zone. Of all his pitches, though, the slider is the one I am most looking forward to seeing against Major League hitters.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Astros tweak within Imai’s profile. The four-seam/slider combo will probably remain the focal point, as it has been a successful one within the organization and with Imai for a while. There are always shape and velocity adjustments to make involving his splitter, curveball, and changeup, possibly. In fact, when Yusei Kikuchi was in Houston, they had him embrace more of his slider and curveball, mainly at the expense of his fastball. But the pitching lab is known for embracing its pitchers’ best qualities and further developing them, so Imai’s adjustments will look different from Kikuchi’s, since they’re different pitchers with distinct strengths. But you can squint and start to see where some adjustments could be made, excluding possible delivery and mechanical adjustments.

Whether Imai settles as a two or three, or a backend starter, will greatly dictate his long-term status with the Astros. If his performance leans toward the former, the odds are he’ll opt out after the 2026 season and test free agency once again. More of the latter, well, he will likely be around for 2027. His progression as he adjusts not only to a new country but also to differences in the ball will matter in the coming months. There will be growing pains. Then there are the upcoming CBA negotiations next offseason, which could prove contentious and impact the 2027 season in some shape or fashion. It is going to be a fascinating partnership, nonetheless, for both him and the Astros this year.