The Launch Angle

Welcome to the latest edition of “Avoiding Arbitration,” everyone’s favorite January passtime. Without a settlement, the foreseeable outcome is dissatisfaction and hurt feelings. Future earning power is hampered. An understandable stance, as I would feel the same way if my employer presented a case to an arbitrator, arguing that I deserve less money, with me in the audience. When viewed in the context of professional baseball salaries, all that potential negativity over a few hundred thousand, or even a million or two, is a bit counterproductive.

Then there is a $13 million difference between the requested salaries. It’ll be mightily interesting to see what the arbitrator ultimately views as “fair value.” But that kind of gap all but ensures a hearing will take place.

How much do I have to pay to watch the hearing between Tarik Skubal and the Tigers? Can MLB make that a primetime event?

At least the Astros aren’t dealing with that level of drama. Still, some tension was always likely. Houston has long operated as a file-and-trial organization, and that approach will likely hold true again, as Isaac Paredes and Yainer Díaz did not reach settlements. In total, though, the Astros settled with nine of their eleven arbitration-eligible players.

In terms of the settlement figures, there wasn’t anything wildly different compared to the projections. Jeremy Peña did nicely for himself, beating the MLB Trade Rumors estimate of $7.9 million. Jesús Sánchez received an extra $300,000 beyond his projection. Steven Okert scored himself $325,000 more. Hunter Brown received an extra $100,000. Bryan Abreu finished about $50,000 less, though.

For the CBT, the settlements don’t wildly change the impact. The Astros, according to RosterResource on FanGraphs, are now roughly $5.519 million below the first tax threshold of $244 million. That figure could change, depending on the outcome of what I assume will be arbitration hearings involving the organization, Díaz, and Paredes.

We also can’t rule out trades to shed additional payroll, though it’s not certain whether any trade would involve an arbitration-eligible player. But, if I were to take a guess, I think Paredes and Sánchez are the most likely of the group to be included in any trade negotiations. Only time will tell, though.