The Launch Angle

As the Astros continue to look at pitching options, Zack Littell is a pitcher that I could see drawing interest. Despite lacking the star power or marquee name, Littell has been quietly effective, his transition into a starter providing quality innings consistently.

It’s easy to forgive fans for not being familiar with Littell, as he was called up to the majors as a reliever at just 22 years old, with on-and-off years of greatness, with years of sub-3 performance, and others where he did more damage than good from a run prevention perspective.

Often, relievers are failed starters, but Littell’s career has taken the opposite trajectory, growing into one of the more consistent starting pitchers in the game today.

That’s a bold statement, but looking at Littell’s past 2 seasons, he has emerged as an underrated pitcher. His IP (343) ranks 24th-highest in baseball over the past few years, eating a bulk of innings while providing not just quantity but quality as well, with a 3.73 ERA during that time. That figure ranks 17th highest of all qualified starters in baseball last year.

Littell’s stuff is not flashy; he’s not liking up the radar gun, nor racking up strikeouts that garner the most attention in the modern age. Instead, he is effective due to remarkable control, his 1.65 BB/9 ranking 5th among starters with 300+ IP over the past 2 years.

As you look at Littell’s arsenal, I could see the Astros altering his usage pattern. Littell’s slider, once one of his calling cards, was not effective last year, but it was his most utilized pitch. His arsenal is not a traditional fit with the Astros’ effective velocity, which gets the most out of the rising high fastball. Last year, his sweeper was rarely used, but devastating; he does have an absolutely devastating splitter.

Of course, Littell’s profile has some red flags that need to be considered as well. The advanced analytics have not been nearly as kind, crediting him more with a low-4’s ERA than a mid-high 3’s – still projecting as a durable mid to back rotation arm instead of the #2 type that his ERA may initially indicate. He gives up too many home runs, and pitching at the Reds’ homer-friendly park did not do him any favors.

What would it cost?

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a contract of two years, $24 million, and Ben Clemens of FanGraphs predicted a fairly similar contract of two years / $20 million. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted two years at $18 million, and Jim Bowden estimated one year at $10 million, neither of which would be prohibitively expensive in terms of years or dollars, and without a qualifying offer attached. CAA represents Littell, an agent who the Astros have had recent success in negotiations (Josh Hader and Christian Walker).

In an era of elite strikeout arms that flame out as quickly as they rack up strikeouts, Littell is an oddity. He goes out consistently delivering above-average innings, day in, day out – minimizing damage through walks. It isn’t flashy or exciting, nor does it inspire the same trust as an elite arm, but he has continued to deliver and may be the bargain of the offseason.

What are your thoughts? Would you want Littell?