As we head into the 2026 season, the largest looming doubt has to be the holes in the Astros’ pitching staff, particularly with long-time ace Framber Valdez expected to land somewhere else.
While fans will clamor for big-name additions through free agency or trades, I think there’s an unheralded arm that could make his name known this year.
Who is Miguel Ullola?
I wouldn’t be surprised if many Astros fans were unfamiliar with Ullola [oo-YOH-lah], as he was a relatively unheralded prospect as an older international signing who has not put out eye-popping traditional numbers in the minors.
FanGraphs’ view of him has ranged as well, from our #25 in 2022, to falling off the list in 2023, to taking and holding the #11 spot for the past 2 years.
Over the years, Ullola’s valuation as a prospect has been tied to his fastball’s effectiveness. His fastball, initially clocked in the mid-90s, was sitting closer to 92 mph, likely as they focused on improving his control. In ’24, the velocity ticked back into the mid-90s, leading to a corresponding rise in prospect rankings.
But truthfully, velocity isn’t the defining feature of Ullola’s arsenal. It’s the movement, the “rise” (IVB), the style of fastball that the Astros have become famous for using to turn pitchers into gems.
There are a few items to note here, and there’s more to the “rise” than simply spin rate – but notably the release point, his arm speed, and ability to create the effect of a fastball that rises through the zone that batters swing under.
Ullola’s profile is unique and similar to Cristian Javier‘s “invisiball”; to put it simply, it is far more than just velocity, allowing it to play up as a true swing-and-miss pitch, as evidenced by his 30%+ swinging-strike rate on the pitch.
Over the last two years, though, he went from a pitcher with a uniquely elite fastball without secondaries or control to a pitcher with three real pitches. His curveball has the hard 12-6 movement, looking to lock batters at the knees as it appears to be a fastball until it drops off like a rock, occasionally making batters look silly. Also, his slider offers him some horizontal movement and has shown flashes of plus along with a changeup, although it has not been located often enough to be a reliable offering.
Ullola’s control took a significant step forward, but it remains an area of need and is likely to be the most critical factor in his ultimate role (SP/RP) and how big a star he could become. Ultimately, the right-hander accumulated 113.2 innings pitched in Triple-A last year with a 3.88 ERA. The advanced ERA forecasters were not nearly as kind. His 10.37 K/9 stands out as elite as a starter, but was unfortunately offset by a 6.18 BB/9. Throughout his career, Ullola has been very effective at limiting home runs and BABIP against.
At 23 years old, Ullola looks like he could continue to add strength to his frame, and a move to the bullpen would likely see his velocity play up a tick, with either making his already scary fastball downright terrifying.
Steamer’s projections show Ullola getting 24 innings, putting up a 4.17 ERA with 9.63 K/9 and 4.62 BB/9. The ERA being above league average is interesting, but the most surprising is probably the prediction for the lowest walk rate of his career. For many, an above league-average reliever is already a huge win, which I agree with, but I wouldn’t be writing an article if I thought that was where the potential ended.
I think Ullola will be one of the next breakout stars, where putting his name alongside names like Valdez, Javier, and Bryan Abreu will not feel out of the norm. I think Miller/Katz can help guide him to be one of the league’s stars and fill a significant void on a team in need of pitching. While I can’t say Ullola provides the same level of comfort and guarantee Astros fans will want from a marquee established pitcher, I think he may surprise many Astros fans this year.
What are your thoughts? Will Ullola capitalize on his talents and help fill the void? Are you as bullish on his potential? Let us know your thoughts.
For those interested in learning more, some other great resources include:
Down In Sugarland Podcast: https://x.com/SLSpaceCowboys/status/1999607695934980102?s=20
Back to the Bullpen: Mike Stanton Analysis of Ullola: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpgOdrrnclo
Guys who struggle with control as much as Ullola does always scare me, but I do think he’ll find success here. If not as a starter, then possibly filling the Bryan Abreu role as a leverage reliever. If he can lower his BB rate to something less extreme I trust the Astros development staff to turn him into a starter.
Great write-up. We need him in the worst ways to take the next step with control. With the bargain-bin hunting of Dana this off-season so far, the front office is taking their time with him, and with good reason. An organization that needs to keep pumping new talent in, he will need this season more than ever as Brito and Pecko will start demanding more attention than ever