The Launch Angle

To say the New York Mets have had a disappointing season is an understatement, but there has been at least one bright spot in Queens: Carson Benge, the Mets right fielder, who is a legitimate NL Rookie of the Year contender. On a team with stars like Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette and Nolan Maclean, it has been Benge who has paced the team. Entering yesterday, Benge’s 3.1 bWAR and 3.2 fWAR led the Mets on the back of a .281/.341/.429 slash line, with 16 HR, 19 steals, as Benge hunts a 20/20 rookie season.

The 2026 Astros haven’t had a rookie like that, but for the last 10-12 years, having an impact rookie was almost tradition. From 2014 to 2023, the Astros had a rookie finish top 5 in AL Rookie of the Year voting every year except for 2018.

Up through 2023, each of these guys was instrumental to the success of that year’s team. Carlos Correa’s call-up drove the 2015 team to October for the first time in 9 years. Yordan Alvarez was a revelation for a powerhouse 2019 team. Cristian Javier’s emergence saved an injury ravaged pitching staff comprised of Lance McCullers, Ryan Pressly and a slew of rookies and second years. Jeremy Pena busted out of the gates and the momentum carried the team to a second championship.

From 2024 on though, rookie impact has been less substantial. Bryan King led all Astros rookies in bWAR with just 0.4 in 2024. Cam Smith posted a respectable 2.0 bWAR, thanks to above average defense, but it was hard not to miss the 4.5 bWAR that the man he replaced, Kyle Tucker, was providing in Chicago.

Here are the contributions of all Astros rookies this year:

AJ Blubaugh is the only one who can remotely be considered a “difference-maker”, while he’s provided value, it doesn’t come close to the kind of impact previous top rookies have made for Astros teams since 2014. But Blubaughs’ 3.17 ERA has still been appreciated on a poor 2026 pitching staff. At 82.1 innings (He logged another 2 innings last night), Blubaugh has pitched the 4th most innings of any Astro in 2026, despite not being a starter.

Blubaugh is not the rookie the Astros figured would be making the most impact. That was the hope for Tatsuya Imai. That hasn’t gone as planned. With less than 30 games left in the season, Imai has amassed a whopping 0.2 bWAR. He’s lost his spot in the rotation, and it’s unclear how the Astros plan to use him from hereon out. He will almost certainly not opt out after the season, so the Astros will have him on the books for at least $18 million. He’s pitched 67.2 innings this year. If he makes it to 80 innings, that figure goes up to $20 million. 90 innings and it’s $22 million. 100 innings, $24 million. You have to wonder if at this point the Astros are purposely trying limit Imai’s usage to save salary.

Ryan Weiss and Brice Matthews were also rookies the Astros were banking on getting production from. Weiss was so terrible that by mid-June, the Astros designated him for assignment, with -0.8 bWAR in just 26 innings of work. Matthews was given many opportunities in the lineup thanks to injuries in the outfield and second base, but he never did anything with them offensively. After 226 plate appearances, he’s been worth the same amount as he was after zero plate appearances: 0 bWAR. Matthews was Dana Brown’s first first round pick, and with Dana now gone, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matthews moved for a song in the offseason.

There are a lot of reasons why the 2026 season hasn’t gone how the Astros would have liked it to. The fact that rookies haven’t shown up the way they have earlier in this era is one of those. A dominant Imai or a breakout Matthews, and perhaps the team would have more than just a 1 game lead in the division.

Astros @ Mets Game Information and Gamethread Details

I asked a Mets fan friend of mine how the Mets were doing.

“Should be an easy sweep for you guys,” he answered, clearly not familiar with the 2026 model of the Houston Astros.

“Mets have played better since the deadline, but not crazy good,” he added, “13-9 in August.”

13-9! Well, now it’s 13-10 after last night’s loss to the Brewers. Still, what any team in the AL West would give to be 13-10 in August!

The Mets have a bad record, 60-74, but bad in the NL is often still pretty decent in the AL. They still have a winning record in interleague play (17-16), which the Astros do not (16-20).

It’s Hunter Brown’s turn to pitches for the Astros. Hunter has been very frustrated with his performance, specifically his 4-seam fastball control, this season. Chander Rome reported:

“It just comes down to the fact that I should be able to throw my four-seam fastball in the strike zone,” Brown said. “Is it timing? Is it this? Is it that? Sure, there’s a lot that goes into it. But at the end of the day, I need to throw more strikes. That’s the bottom line.”

This sounds like a person who sees the problem but can’t find a solution. Today will be former Astros pitching coach Brent Strom’s return to the team. He will simply be a “pitching consultant”, but this consultant is going to be in the dugout and in uniform. That’s a hell of a consultant.

Still it’s a welcome sight for the Astros, their fans, and their pitchers, and hopefully Strom can work his magic and get Brown to the solution he’s been looking for.

Brown hasn’t been bad. In 14 starts, he’s 3-3 has a 3.51 ERA, with a 9.2 K/9. But he’s also got a sky high 5.2 BB/9, leading to a 1.33 WHIP, and has been averaging less than 5 1/3 innings per start. For an ace, that’s not enough.

The Mets will start right-handed pitcher Christian Scott. The Astros have never faced Scott, not even in Spring Training, which is surprising considering how frequently the Mets and Astros play each other in the Grapefruit League. Lamont Wade, Jr. is 0-3, Christian Walker is 0-2 and Isaac Paredes has the only hit against Scott, being 1 for 2 against him.

On the 2026 season, Scott is 4-3 in 19 starts, with a 3.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, an 11.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. He’s primarily a fastball pitcher, averaging 95.5 mph on his 4-seamer, which has touched 98.3 mph. He pairs it with a sweeper against righties and a cutter and sweeper against lefties., who hit .714 OPS against him compared to righties’ .658 OPS.

Scott was roughed up in his last start against the White Sox, going 4.2 IP on 94 pitches, with 4 ER on 5 hits, including 2 home runs. He walked 4 and struck out 6.

The game will be broadcast at 6:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

For more detailed instructions, please see the Guide to the Launch Angle.

If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)

Feature photo from  @astros on X,  Source Link.