81 games are in the books. 81 games remain.
The Astros are 4th place in the division, 5 games below .500 at 38-43. They have a -41 run differential.
Yet, the Astros are still technically in control of their own destiny. If they want to make the postseason, if they want to win the division, they don’t need any outside help. That’s weird to think, but it’s true, because the 3 teams ahead of them in the AL West are ahead by fewer games than they have remaining against the Astros. The Mariners still have 5 games left against Houston, the Rangers have 6, the A’s still have 7. The Astros need these teams to lose games, but they can make them lose by beating them.
That’s all provided that in the games against other teams, they keep pace.
The Astros have actually done an okay job of that recently. Mixing in a series sweep would be a nice boost, but they’ve come away with taking 2 out of 3 in the last 3 series, and a win today in the rubber match against Toronto would make it 4 series in a row.
It’s a 162-game horse race, and maybe this team isn’t Secretariat, but just hang with the pack, and like Golden Tempo, when there’s an opening down the stretch, capitalize.
The Astros are also on game 6 of 13 games without a day off, and the bullpen is feeling it. Hunter Brown only provided 3 innings on Monday. Yesterday, Lambert couldn’t complete 5, and the game went into extras.
It’s a 7-man bullpen instead of 8 as well; 6 pitchers are being used in the starting rotation. Bryan Abreu is on the restricted list, and it’s unclear when he’ll return. He’s been replaced with Logan VanWey.
By the way, I thought that this mish-mash of uppercase and lowercase letters was a rush job on the jersey nameplate, maybe due to the team not realizing until the last minute they had to elevate VanWey to replace Abreu, but it’s intentional.
Anyways, back to the pen usage. This is what the pen has had to cover during these first 5 games of the 13 games-in-a-row stretch:
| IP (pitches) | 6/19 CLE | 6/20 CLE | 6/21 CLE | 6/22 @TOR | 6/23 @TOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 6.0 (Imai) | 6.0 (Arrighetti) | 6.0 (Teng) | 3.0 (Brown) | 4.2 (Lambert) |
| VanWey | 1.0 (16) | 2.0 (23) | |||
| Pearson | 1.0 (24) | 1.0 (21) | |||
| Blubaugh | 1.0 (16) | 2.0 (38) | |||
| De Los Santos | 1.1 (19) | 1.1 (26) | |||
| Okert | 2.0 (25) | 1.0 (21) | 1.0* (17) | ||
| King | 1.0 (11) | 0.2 (11) | |||
| Hader | 1.0 (9) | 1.0 (16) |
* across 2 innings
Tonight, Mike Burrows returns to the rotation. I’m not going to get into a discussion of Mike Burrow’s struggles on the mound. The Launch Angle has covered it thoroughly. I’ve written about the changes he’s made in Houston, his arm angle drop and his improvement against RHH but decline against LHH. Clack has written about his propensity to give up the long ball and what’s been driving that. Cody has written about his 4-seam fastball, which rates as one of the worst in the majors, and whether adding a cutter might help. Check them out if you haven’t. (Also, if you’ve never noticed, there’s a search bar in the right hand column that works shockingly well, if you’re ever looking for our takes on certain players or topics)
What’s clear is that Burrows will need to give the Astros length today; they absolutely cannot afford a short outing from Burrows. If he stinks it up, he’s just going to have to wear it. There’s no real long man available. AJ Blubaugh just threw 38 pitches 2 days ago. Logan VanWey has now pitched two days in a row, and multiple innings on the second day. Perhaps you could call on Nate Pearson, but he just threw 21 pitches yesterday, which isn’t nothing, so how much can you really ask of him? Another 1 and change? 2?
Burrows needs to go 6 innings tonight, 5 at the absolute minimum, but even asking the pen to cover 4 innings tonight makes things very difficult for the remaining 7 games in the 13-game stretch, without knowing when Abreu is returning or shuttling VanWey back down to Sugar Land to grab a new arm (which may be what’s on the horizon.)
Fingers crossed.
The good news is the Mike Burrows is no longer the worst ERA in the AL among qualified pitchers. Not because someone else has a higher ERA than Burrows’ 5.79, but because Burrows no longer qualifies, with just 79.1 IP in 81 team games. So yeah, by the end of tonight if he makes it through 3 innings, he could be again.
Starting opposite Burrows is 2025 Postseason rookie phenom, Trey Yesavage. (Pronounced like “ya savage”, like in Home Alone where the black and white movie gangster says “Keep the change, ya filthy animal.”) Still within his rookie eligibility, the right-hander is 3-3 on the season over 10 starts, with a 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He has an 8.7 K/9, and walks have been a problem with a 4.1 BB/9.
A flyball pitcher, Yesavage has just 3 pitches: a 4-seam fastball that averages 94.4 mph, a slider and a splitter. He pairs the 4-seam with the splitter mostly against lefies. Against righties, he complements his fastball with the slider. He’s great at generating swings and misses, and when batters do make contacts it’s rarely crushed.
This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.
The game will be broadcast at 6:07 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
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Feature photo by mhatter106.
