The Launch Angle

Here’s the short and not-so-sweet: The Astros lost 5-0 to the A’s on Sunday. Princess Day ends on a somber note.

There are certainly worse ways to lose a game. We all have numerous examples of such outcomes. Few are humorous in hindsight, while some are painful. Today’s loss falls more under the frustrating category. Yes, the lineup didn’t hit. That’ll happen because it’s baseball. Sometimes, there isn’t much more explanation needed than that.

The Astros also lost because Mike Burrows couldn’t keep the ball in the park, especially with runners on base. Five innings, five runs (four earned), and only three strikeouts in this start. And it keeps happening. That’s the frustrating part to me.

Entering Sunday, Burrows was tied with Ryne Nelson, Eric Lauer, Jacob deGrom, and Ryan Weathers for the most home runs allowed on a four-seam fastball. I dare to speculate that he’ll lead baseball in this category once all of the games are played, now with 11. He, in fact, led baseball with home runs allowed to left-handed hitters against his four-seam fastball with seven. That total is now eight, including today’s results. That one was from the highlight above: a two-run dinger by the left-handed Nick Kurtz in the third inning. A meatball in nearly every sense of the word. The second home run below was to Brent Rooker, a right-handed hitter, which was another meatball.

I don’t think I am speaking out of turn when I say that Burrows has a home run problem, or, more appropriately, a fastball problem, which is grading out as one of the worst pitches in baseball by run value. Left-handed hitters, in particular, were slugging .780 against it entering Sunday. But these issues weren’t exactly new, though. The Astros already have him throwing his four-seam less than he did with the Pirates last season (39.2% -> 28.9%) to minimize the pitch’s exposure. Even with less airtime, the pitch is getting hammered even more severely. Something has to give and soon.

So, where does Burrows go from here?

One option is adding another pitch to his arsenal to further reduce the rate of his four-seam fastball: a cutter. Apollo Dez of Apollo Media has been advocating for such since late May. Or that was when I became aware of it.

And I agree. Adding a cutter, or perhaps a variant of a cut-fastball, could work wonders for Burrows against left-handed hitters. It could be the missing piece that bridges the rest of his arsenal.

As we already know, Burrows added a sinker starting last season, mostly against right-handed hitters. The results have been somewhat mixed on that pitch in 2026, but it has limited opposing right-handed hitters to an expected slugging percentage of .359. Only three extra base hits against it, with most of the damage being singles. That’s a pitch he should continue throwing to right-handed hitters.

Adding a cutter, or some variant, might not transform him into an ace or anything like that. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. But it would relieve some of the pressure off his four-seam fastball against left-handed hitters. That is the priority. A cut-fastball with some late glove-side movement, but keeping most of the vertical break, could work for him. As we can tell from the movement profile graphic above, there is a gap between his four-seam and slider. A pitch resembling his four-seam coming out of the hand, but with some late breaking action, is something worth thinking about.

Between Burrows and the lineup, the Astros didn’t really put up much of a fight in this one. The bullpen actually did fine, holding the A’s scoreless across the final four frames. Talking about pitch arsenal changes, we should keep Bryan Abreu in mind. We all know about his struggles as well this season, but he did something interesting: he decided to throw a cutter per Statcast. Four out of his nine pitches, in fact. He has only thrown nine in his entire career before Sunday. Whether this is something he is adding to help compensate for the decline in his four-seam fastball is to be determined. Something to monitor.

Feature photo from Astros on X