The Launch Angle

One of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball this decade has a new home in Detroit. For three years, $115 million, Framber Valdez will now pitch for the Tigers and perhaps offer the best one-two punch in any rotation alongside Tarik Skubal. Ignoring team-specific fandom for a brief moment, those two on the same staff, even if only for a season, ought to be incredibly fun to watch.

For the Astros, though, they’ve officially lost a reliable source of innings and one of their best overall pitchers. This team likely doesn’t advance to the 2021 World Series or win the 2022 Fall Classic without Valdez. His contributions to this organization’s “golden age” cannot be overstated. Other than a brief elbow scare in May 2024, the lefty averaged roughly 190 innings per season dating back to 2022, with a career 3.36 ERA and 3.51 FIP. There is a lot of value in that kind of durability, especially in an era when pitchers are increasingly prone to various arm injuries.

Houston will miss Valdez, without a doubt. I don’t know how you can’t miss a pitcher among the top-ten in club history in fWAR for starting pitchers (10th, 20.5 fWAR). Although Dana Brown has been proactive this offseason to address the pitching staff, replacing Valdez’s value across a full season still might prove difficult. He was the anchor of the rotation, even if others (first Justin Verlander, followed by Hunter Brown) were generally considered the best pitchers of the staff in various seasons. It’ll be interesting to see how the staff fares in its first season without him. Valdez was one of the few constant factors in a roster that has increasingly changed since 2021.

That said, it felt increasingly like the relationship between Valdez and the Astros had run its course to some degree. Not saying a reunion for the right price wouldn’t have happened, but a change of scenery might prove beneficial. The incident with César Salazar in early September last year certainly raised some eyebrows. Or that time he went rogue in a May 2024 start against the Angels. His second-half lapses in 2023 and 2025 left a bitter taste. One could certainly make the argument that Houston, which missed the postseason by one game last year, would’ve qualified if Valdez performed closer to his historical averages. To be fair, you can say that about plenty of players on that roster, so the blame ought not fall entirely on him. You get the point, though, as Valdez was one part of the overall problem. But when things didn’t go well for him, there was always that creeping doubt of whether it would all snowball further.

However, the positives have outweighed the negatives with Valdez. The contract with Detroit, even accounting for the $38.33 million AAV, isn’t as risky as a longer-term pact would’ve been. Even if he exercises his opt-out following the 2027 season, he does solidify the front of the Tigers’ rotation in the event Skubal leaves in free agency himself next offseason. The Astros, by their actions, have been addressing the offseason under the assumption that Valdez wasn’t returning. For less than Valdez’s AAV, they’ve signed multiple pitchers to fill out the depth chart. But one of the franchise’s best success stories in recent years leaves a noticeable hole in a pitching staff that could prove difficult to entirely fill.

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