The Launch Angle

Tatsuya Imai agreeing to terms with the Astros for three years and $54 million (up to $63 million including incentives), with opt-outs after both the 2026 and 2027 seasons, was certainly a surprise. It feels appropriate to classify it as such. Based on the reactions I’ve read and listened to since the news broke, I don’t know how it isn’t. Yes, we all knew that the organization was prioritizing starting pitching this offseason. Dana Brown and the front office had already taken steps to address the lack of starting depth at the upper levels of the organization, notably signing Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss and trading for Mike Burrows since their 2025 season came to a close. But an international signing of this ilk for a player directly from Japan — for this team — is certainly new.

While I am drafting up a post about Imai as a pitcher, I also wanted to touch on Houston’s CBT situation following his signing, as there may be ripple effects. In terms of payroll, per Chandler Rome’s reporting with The Athletic, Imai will have an AAV figure of $18 million per season, possibly maxing out at $21 million based on innings pitched each season.

Of course, with the pending opt-outs, this could be only a 2026 concern. $18 million per season, even up to $21 million, isn’t a bad price for hopefully a number two starter or even a mid-rotation arm. There is some risk involved, but even the worst-case scenario is only three years. This contract fits the parameters we have observed with Jim Crane and his risk tolerance for free-agent contracts.

In terms of the CBT, the Astros don’t have much spending room remaining. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before this agreement, the organization had already committed $221 million in player salaries (AAV), or roughly $23 million below the first tax threshold of $244 million. Imai’s projected AAV of $18 million removes almost all of that previous margin, with only around $5 million left to spend before crossing into tax territory once again. Incentives up to $3 million only absorbs more of any available margin. While it is plausible that the Astros, with Crane’s approval, could exceed the first threshold for a third consecutive season in 2026, it’s unlikely. Never say never if the right circumstances occur, notably another season with postseason aspirations, but the club’s decisions since the end of the season at least indicate a more economical approach. Imai’s signing seemingly deviates from that path; however, the terms aren’t too cumbersome from a team point of view.

Some other quick payroll thoughts:

• Another trade or two certainly seems likely at this point to shed salary. Jesús Sánchez and his projected $5.95 million salary ought not to prove too difficult to move. Jake Meyers ($3.9 million projected AAV) is possibly another name to monitor, although recently trading Jacob Melton in the Burrows deal might lessen the pressure there in light of the Imai agreement. If Brown does trade Meyers, though, it would speak volumes of how this organization views Zach Cole.
• There is also the logjam in the infield to monitor, with Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes projected to cost around a combined $30.65 million in 2026. It feels increasingly likely that one of those two players will be traded, especially with the current lack of payroll space below the first threshold. If I had to guess, the Astros are probably hoping to save around $10 million — roughly the amount of Paredes projected 2026 salary — in any trade. There are two things to consider, though: Would someone want to absorb half of Walker’s salary or even shed another unwanted contract to make any proposal more palatable? Or, depending on the return package, would Brown prefer to move Paredes if the right opportunity presented itself?
• While his projected 2026 salary won’t exactly break the bank ($5.175 million), I also wonder if Bryan Abreu could be moved for the right price before his final season of club control. To be honest, I don’t expect for the Astros to trade Abreu, but I think it is worth bringing up just in case. A healthy 2026 likely makes Abreu far too expensive to retain next offseason, dependent on CBA negotiations, especially with Josh Hader still under contract for two more years.
• In regards to the financial risk involving Imai, it is worth noting that Lance McCullers Jr.‘s contract is expiring after the 2026 season ($17 million AAV). Even Imai’s 2026 season leads to him declining the first opt out for 2027, the subtraction of McCullers Jr.’s AAV should help mitigate some of the impact on future spending.

The addition to Imai helps fortify the starting rotation, but also invites additional intrigue about what Houston will do regarding its player payroll situation. Again, there isn’t much room left to operate if they want to avoid the first threshold. If that holds true, expect more changes in the coming weeks.