The Launch Angle

The Impotent Standoff Between Astros RHP and DBacks LHH

The Houston Astros have had trouble pitching to left-handed hitters all season. Part of that is because the Astros pitching staff is so right-handed pitching dominant. Through 141 games, the Astros have had a left-handed starting pitcher just 3 times. 2 of those 3 times, the “starting pitcher” was actually a reliever, used as an opener (Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa.)

It’s expected that right-handed pitchers would have more trouble against left-handed hitters, but Astros right-handed pitchers have struggled a lot more than most. They rank towards the bottom of the barrel in most pitching categories against left-handed hitters.

This is a weakness (sadly, one of several for the 2026 Astros) that opponents have been going after relentlessly. Opponents have routinely loading their starting lineups with as many left-handed hitter and switch hitters as they can; lineups with 3, 2 or even just 1 righty hitters have not been uncommon. The Astros have faced the most left-handed hitters in the AL (2927 PA), and are second in MLB only to MIA (2944 PA.)

Houston begins a 3-game series at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Diamondbacks will no doubt also go after this Achilles’ Heel with as many lefties as they can find in their clubhouse. Fortunately, for the Astros, the blade Arizona is using isn’t quite as sharp as other teams’.

The Diamondbacks are the worst team in MLB when it comes to their left-handed hitters hitting righty pitchers.

Across the board, they rank dead last in offensive metrics. They can still draw a walk though, which is something Houston pitchers have readily been obliging to lefties.

The DBacks have just 4 left-handed or switch-hitters who have higher than a 75 wRC+. Switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo is an asset against righties, with a 111 wRC+ from the left side, compared to 98 on the right side. Lars Nootbar plays almost strictly against right-handed pitchers and will also be deployed; he carries a 117 wRC+ against righties.

Stars Corbin Carroll (lefty) and Ketel Marte (switch) hit worse against righties. Against left-handed pitchers they crush, with a 159 and 152 wRC+ respectively. Against right-handed hitters, that drops to 100 and 92.

Every other lefty or switch-hitter has a wRC+ of 72 or below against RHP.

This bodes well for the Astros if the Diamondbacks cannot take advantage of one of Houston’s bigger weaknesses.

(Update: Carroll, Marte, Nootbar, Perdomo and Max Kepler (54 wRC+ vs. RHP) are in today’s lineup.)

It’s Time to Rethink Cristian Javier’s Role

Unfortunately, left-handedness vs right-handedness may not matter for the Diamondbacks when they face tonight’s Astros starter, Cristian Javier, who makes the 99th start of his career. Lefty, right, Javier has been terrible against both.

These numbers are atrocious. Against lefties, every batter is Freddie Freeman. Against righties, every batter is Junior Caminero. How is that sustainable? Why does he keep getting innings when opposing hitters can tee off him like that?

Well, it’s because batters don’t hit like perennial All-Stars the first time they see Javier in a game. The first time hitters face Javier, he’s able to keep them in better check with a .245/.301/.418 slash line. The second time hitters see Javier though, they’re not just All-Stars, they’re MVP winners, with an astounding .388/.443/.612 slash line with 1.055 OPS. They turn into Ted Williams, back from the war.

There’s also a difference between when Javier faces a batter for the first in game as a starter vs. as a reliever, and a marked one at that. As a starter, hitters have an .818 OPS against Javier even in their first plate appearance. As a reliever, that number drops to .537.

An .818 OPS vs a .537 OPS is a pretty large discrepancy. Part of that is small sample size, but I wouldn’t dismiss it completely. Why would it be different facing a batter for the first time as a reliever than as a starter?

When you see batters for the first time as a reliever, all those plate appearances are likely early in your pitch count; your entire outing might just be 1, maybe 2 innings. As a starter, you could be 40 pitches deep into your pitch count but still working your way through the first time of the order. That seems to matter for Javier. The other teams have had longer to see his pitches, his arm is less fresh.

In fact, when you break it down by pitch count, Javier isn’t that bad during his first 25 pitches. In fact, he’s quite good, limiting the opposition to a .206/.260/.382 slash line. Anything past those first 25 pitches, and you start seeing OPS’s in excess of .900.

Cristian Javier is still a useful pitcher, but he’s best suited to a one inning reliever role, maybe two. He’s not a starter anymore though. He’s not even a bulk inning reliever. That’s not to say he can’t be again. Given an offseason to work on his issues, perhaps he could get there again, but not this season, and not in this critical stretch run.

Diamondbacks @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details

After taking 3 games out of 4 against the AL Central leading White Sox, the Astros enter the final 7 series of the regular season still in first place in the AL West, 2 games ahead of the Rangers who, like the Astros, have a tough remaining schedule, and 6 games ahead of the Mariners who have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB.

Easy schedule or not, the math is getting increasingly harder for the Mariners to take the division with a 6 game deficit, 2 teams ahead of them, and only 21 games left.

Fangraphs Playoff Odds has the Astros now at 72.7% to win the division, which is as high as any team has been in the division all season. They still need to win games though. Every win the Astros notch dims the light at the end of the Rangers’ and Mariners’ tunnel more and more.

The Diamondbacks are 74-67, and fighting for the last wild card spot in the NL, leading the Padres by half a game.

Starting opposite Javier for the Diamondbacks is Houston native right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly, who believe it or not, is already 37 years old. Kelly did not make his MLB debut until age 30, which is why his late thirties caught me by surprise.

He’s starting to pitch like someone in his late thirties too. Through 25 starts, he’s 9-12 and carriers a 5.08 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9, all of which are career worsts. He’s still eating up the innings though; he’s pitched 141.2 innings this season, averaging 5 2/3 innings a start. Career worsts or not, eating up innings is something the Astros would gladly welcome on their pitching staff.

Kelly’s last start was a gem though. Against the Giants, he went 7 innings of scoreless 2-hit ball, striking out 7 and walking 4. That’s not been the norm for Kelly this year though. The sliders on Baseball Savant tell the story. This is a pitcher the Astros need to pounce on. This is a game in the series the Astros need to take.

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

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