The Launch Angle

The 2025 season was a tale of two halves for Astros first baseman Christian Walker. His first half was putrid; he registered just an 84 wRC+, well below the offensive production expected for a bat-first position, and below expectations of a big ticket free-agent. This bad first impression overshadowed a strong second half to the 2025 season, where he posted a 120 wRC+.

Walker was determined not to get off to another slow start in 2026. When he came out of the gates on fire, it looked like the first half of 2025 was an aberration. His 2026 first half wRC+ was 115; he was picking up right where he left off in 2025. For the first time since Yuli Gurriel’s best years, the Astros had a first baseman from whom they could count on consistent offensive production.

As the 2026 season has gone on though, Walker’s hot start has fizzled:

So far in the second half of 2026, he’s had a 71 wRC+. That’s even worse than his much maligned 2025 first half.

What has changed with Walker? His production has dropped so far that he’s now batting 6th in the lineup, sometimes as low as 7th. Earlier in the season, Joe Espada had Walker as the cleanup or even the 3-hole, protecting Yordan Alvarez.

He has been swinging the bat as hard and as fast as he’s always been. His 74.4 mph bat speed, which ranks 74th percentile in MLB, has remained steady throughout the season. His swing path tilt and attack angle haven’t changed, and the ball has come off of his bat with the same adjusted exit velocities throughout the season.

One notable recent change is that the launch angles of his batted balls dropped from the mid-teens to 7 degrees in August. August is when Walker’s offensive output particularly nosedived. A 69 wRC+ is Adam Everett-like plate production, and Walker hitting the ball just a little bit higher and dropping his launch angle is a clear contributor.

Walker’s offense had been declining before August and before that launch angle change though, even when his bat speed, swing path, attack angles and launch angles remained consistent. If his swing hadn’t changed over the season, what was driving this change in results over the season?

In April and May, he was getting much better results on the field than he should have, given his xStats. His xBA and xSLG were considerably less than his BA and SLG. May should have have been his worst month offensively, even worse than August, based on his batted balls, with an xOPS of .505. He managed to luck into a .743 OPS for May instead, extra surprising considering his .169 BABIP.

For June, July and August, it’s gone the other way. Walker’s xStats have outpaced his actual results. This shift in batted ball luck really makes the decline in his offensive output stand out.

So has Walker been a worse hitter as the season has gone on, or has he just been unlucky? It looks like there’s been elements of both.

White Sox @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details

There’s two games left in this White Sox series. The Astros need to pick up at least one of them to secure the tiebreaker against Chicago, which could prove important if the Astros and White Sox hang on to win their respective divisions.

Before that comes into play, however, the Astros need to hold off the Mariners and Rangers, who both won yesterday while the Astros lost. Texas pulls within 1 game of the Astros, and the Mariners move to 4 games behind Houston.

Hayden Wesneski starts for the Astros. Wesneski has now made 6 starts for the Astros this season, afetr coming back from Tommy John surgery, and 5 of them had been good. The Astros have won all 5 of those “good” games. His last time out, he allowed 1 earned run against the Yankees in 5 innings on 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 6.

For the season, Wesneski is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 32.2 innings. He has 28 strikeouts to 12 walks.

Davis Martin is being activated off the IL to start for the White Sox. A 29 year old right handed pitcher, Martin went on the IL on August 14 after developing a blister on a finger on his pitching hand that tore the skin.

On the season, Martin has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP, but really Martin has been two different pitchers this season. He was great through May, then terrible afterwards.

It hasn’t gotten any better since that August 4 five-inning, 9 earned run start against the Red Sox that prompted the above tweet. In Martin’s next start on August 9, he pitched only 1 inning before being pulled for a rain delay. On August 13, he pitched just two innings, suffered the blister injury and was ejected for throwing at the Reds’ Sal Stewart. The next day he went on the IL.

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

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Feature photo from  @astros on X,  Source Link.