This has not exactly been a stellar season by Houston Astros standards. The squad hasn’t been under .500 this late in a full season since 2014. The less said about the starting rotation, the better, and the bullpen, having carried the squad in its run to .500, is starting to falter. The offense is ridiculously top-heavy, and even AL-MVP front-runner Yordan Alvarez is experiencing a bit of a slump. About the only part of the team worse than the starting rotation is the outfield and that’s with Yordan logging some time in LF. Since the trade deadline, they are 7-11, punctuated by one of the worst home stands in recent memory, going 3-6 against the three worst teams in the AL West. Oh, and Houston just sacked the GM, meaning that they will be looking for their 4th GM this decade.
Yet, with all of that badness, the Astros are right in the thick of the AL playoff race. This is more the meh-ness of the AL vs anything the Astros, outside of Yordan, are doing. They are in a three-way drunk slap fight with the Rangers and Mariners for the AL West lead. They are technically in the Wild Card picture, sitting only a half-game out. It is entirely possible that when playoff baseball commences, this Astros team will actually be in the dance, and might, just might, have a puncher’s chance.
With such a log-jam for positioning and seeding, tiebreakers are about to play a massive role for whatever playoff aspirations Houston has. The rules for MLB tiebreakers can be found here:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules
For the majority of this article, we’ll look at two-team tiebreakers. Here are the rules for ties between two teams:
1. Head-to-head record
The first and simplest tiebreaker is the result of the season series between the tied teams. If Team X and Team Y tie for the top spot in the division and Team X went 7-6 against Team Y, then Team X is the division champion.
2. Intradivision Record
If the head-to-head record is also a tie, then the involved clubs’ records within their division will break the tie. This applies even if the tie is for a Wild Card spot between two teams that do not reside in the same division. The team with the superior intradivision record would win the tiebreaker.
3. Intraleague Record
In the event of a head-to-head and intradivision record tie for the involved teams, then the tie would be settled based on how they fared against teams within their league, meaning AL clubs vs. AL clubs and NL clubs vs. NL clubs.
4. Last Half of Intraleague Games
Should the intraleague record also be a tie, the next tiebreaker will be determined by the involved clubs’ last-half records against teams within their league (AL for AL teams, NL for NL teams). Note that these are the records from intraleague games after the All-Star break (so, not the exact mathematical midpoint).
5. Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One
Should the records of the involved clubs in the second half of intraleague games also be a tie, then the outcome of the last game of the first half of intraleague games is used. Should that also be a tie, then the previous intraleague game on the schedule is used. This process is repeated until the tie is resolve
With that, some of the key tiebreaker situations with Houston:
AL West Contenders:
Texas Rangers: HOU 9-4. Season Series Complete: This might be the biggest advantage Houston has coming into the home stretch. By clinching the Silver Boot for the 9th straight season, Houston also locked up the tiebreaker against their in-state rivals. Given that since August, it has been either Texas or Houston leading the AL West, this has been a major help to Houston.
Seattle Mariners: SEA 9-2. Games remaining: 2 games @ Seattle. This might be the biggest handicap Houston faces coming into the home stretch. Granted, 8 of these games were played before the calendar turned to June, when Houston was worse than they are now. However, the Mariners are arguably the biggest disappointment in the AL. Expected to build on last season’s ALCS berth, the Mariners have cratered. While there are some signs of life from this team, Seattle should never have been in this position. Houston lost the tiebreaker, but that 2-game set might be a critical series to the playoff hopes for both.
Could this be an even crazier finish between these three teams than what happened in 2023? Texas has already clinched the season series against Seattle (7-3) with a 3-game set left. If all three teams finished tied, then it could get fun. Divisional records are in play, but likely the combined winning percentage will decide this one. Here, Houston’s sorry record against Seattle could hurt. The combined records of HOU vs. TEX vs. SEA: HOU: (11-13); SEA: (12-9); TEX (12-11). Best case here is for Seattle to sweep the final set against the Rangers (@ SEA) but get swept by Houston in that two-game set if the teams are to all tie for AL West lead.
Wild Card Contenders (teams ahead of Houston as of 8/25):
New York Yankees: Tied 2-2. Games remaining: 2 @ New York. The Yankees have a near 10-game lead over Houston in the standings. Tiebreaker considerations…not a huge concern for either team here.
Boston Red Sox: HOU 5-1. Season Series Complete. The Astros struck early here. Their matchups with Boston ended well before the All-Star Break. Thus, Houston did not have to deal with the one of the more ridiculous in-season shifts in recent memory. Boston, once at 31-45, has gone on a 41-14 run to be in the running for the top Wild Card spot with the Yankees (or Rays…whichever team will lose out on the AL East crown). Baring a major shift in dynamics, any tiebreaker is not a major concern here either.
Cleveland Guardians: HOU 4-2. Season Series Complete. Cleveland is just ahead of the Astros in the Wild Card standings as of Aug 25. Houston won both of their series before the All-Star Break. Yet, expect Cleveland to be in the mix as the season winds down, for both the Wild Card and the chance to repeat as AL Central champs. Cleveland’s tiebreaker advantage helped them last season over Houston. Could the Astros get some measure of revenge this go-around?
Wild Card Considerations (teams behind Houston as of 8/25):
Minnesota Twins: MIN 4-2. Season Series Complete. These teams met in the first half of the season. Minnesota was not seen as team that would make a serious run. Yet, given the state of the AL, they are only 2 games back of a Wild Card. Could it happen again that another AL Central team that won a tiebreaker over Houston sneaks by the Astros again?
Toronto Blue Jays: Tied 3-3. Season Series Complete. Intradivisional records: TOR 23-23; HOU 22-24; Intraleague records: HOU 49-46; TOR 42-45: The only AL team more disappointing than Seattle, arguably, would be the team mere outs away from winning last season’s World Series. They were in a strange soft-sell mode at the trade deadline, including sending their starting CF to Houston. Yet, they are lurking in the mix. Is it too late for to recapture last season’s magic?
Baltimore Orioles: BAL 5-1. Season Series Complete. GM Mike Elias is on many of the lists of executives that might follow Dana Brown into unemployment. The O’s exited the deadline as a team looking at yet another rebuild. However, given the state of the AL, the disappointing, seemingly-ready-for-yet-another-rebuild O’s are far from out of the post-season discussion. Whether Elias survives even if Baltimore gets that 6-seed? That is another question.
Detroit Tigers: HOU 4-2. Season Series Complete. One of the few teams struggling more than Houston is Detroit. Yet, they are still a couple of good series out of Wild Card position. Likely the selloff of Skubal and Mize is starting to bite, but in this year’s AL, you are not out until you are really out. At least Houston won’t suffer the indignity of losing a tiebreaker to them this go around.
While the most important score for the Astros to watch will be whatever game they are playing in, you can figure on at least a few electronic devices to be set for scoreboard watching as baseball enters its last month of regular season play.
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link.
“…punctuated by one of the worst home stands in recent memory, going 3-6 against the three worst teams in the AL West.” And yet, Espada is managing the team. I am not impressed with Crane’s decisions.
You left out the White Sox, which could easily be passed by Cleveland. We won the first series 2-1, but have another three-game set at home in September. That could be another critical series if everything stays as tight as it is now.
Admittedly was on the fence about including the White Sox and Rays. Both are leading their respective divisions. Figured I would keep it at those teams in the AL West and Wild Card spot as of the 25th. As you stated, we have a 2-1 lead on the White Sox, as well as a 2-1 lead on the Rays. The Astros face both this coming month, and they are going to be significant.
We’re not catching up to the Rays lol. But there’s a decent chance that either we or the Guardians catch up to the White Sox. FG predicts they’ll have a losing record over the remainder of the season… but FG has predicted a drop off from them for most of the year and the White Sox continue to defy their predictions. I’ve got my popcorn!