A couple of years ago, Jim Christopher, host of Go Go Astros and Ballpark Nation, messaged me, saying he had some extra tickets to the Astros-Blue Jays game, and did I want to go?
Thanks, but no thanks, I declined. Because it was a Monday. And if I went to this Monday night game, I’d probably get home late, and then not get much sleep and be tired on Tuesday. Then with work, and the kids’ school and activities during the week, it would probably throw my whole week off until the weekend.
That’s the kind of excuse that 2004 me would have been horrified to hear 2024 me say.
Plus it was Ronel Blanco who was slated to pitch, and everyone knew that he was just filler, a temporary placeholder in the #5 SP slot until other guys got back from injury.
Then Blanco threw a no-hitter and made me feel like an idiot. He went on to have a spectacular season, starting 29 games and posting a 2.80 ERA. Nobody in the league (min 150 IP) had a lower batting average against or a lower Hits/9 than Blanco that year. Nobody.
He rolled into 2025 an expected fixture in the rotation, not just a placeholder, but a May injury led him to have Tommy John surgery, and he was out for the rest of 2025 and most of this year too.
Blanco is back now, and the Astros find themselves in a position where they desperately need him to be a fixture in the rotation again. The starting rotation, which in spring training looked like it was going to be a team strength, has been littered with holes. Offseason acquisitions Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows were expected to lock down the middle of the rotation, but they’ve been disappointments. Spencer Arrighetti, despite an overperforming out-of-body experience Pitcher of the Month May, returned to pitching so poorly he was on the verge of being optioned when he went on the IL, and ultimately deemed tradeable by a team looking for starting pitching at the trade deadline.
The Astros never got any starting pitching help at the deadline, and thus are banking a lot on the performance of two guys fresh off of Tommy John surgery: Blanco and Hayden Wesneski. The rotation is figuratively being held together by surgical suture, biocompatible tape and titanium screws. Maybe even a Junior Mint, who knows?
So what has Blanco shown so far in his first 3 starts back? He’s 0-1 with a 7.38 ERA. That looks terrible, but you’re not going to get an accurate picture by looking at an ERA based off 14.2 innings of work. So let’s break down what we have been able to see from Blanco:
The velocity is still there. Blanco, over 3 starts, has averaged 93.6 mph on his 4-seamer and touched as high as 95.6 mph, which was his high last year before he got injured as well. In 2024 and 2025, Blanco averaged 93.4 and 93.2 mph on his 4-seamer, so if anything he’s a shade up on his velocity, which isn’t that uncommon after Tommy John surgery.
He’s still generating swings and misses. A high Whiff% has been key to Blanco’s surprising success in the majors. In his 2024, he had a 29.0 Whiff%, which ranked in the 76th percentile. Last year, it was a 32.0 Whiff%. So far in 2026, he’s registered a Whiff% of 28.3, which is on par with his pre-injury numbers. His Chase% is up slightly at 33.8%, from 30.3 in 2024 and 31.7% in 2025.
He’s walking batters a little more. Again, it’s only be 14.2 innings, but Blanco has 8 walks in those 14.2 innings. Blanco has never been one to limit walks very much, but that rate is a little high even for him.
He’s still not allowing a lot of hits. Batters are hitting .204 of Blanco, and that’s not a fluke, as his xBA is similar at .212. This is around where he’s lived the past 2 seasons.
He’s getting hit by the long ball. The problem is that the hits he’s allowed have been of the 4 base variety. In 3 starts, 5 of the 11 hits he’s allowed have been home runs. Of his 12 earned runs, 9 of them have come by way of the home run. The aforementioned walks have factored into this. 3 of those 5 home runs drove in batters Blanco walked earlier in the inning. They haven’t exactly been cheap too, 3 of the home runs were dingers in 30/30 parks and another in 29/30. He’s got a HR/FB ratio of 31.3% which is insanely high, so that ought to come down some.
Where does that leave us? Is Blanco still the same guy he was before the injury? Despite the unsightly ERA, it looks like he probably is. The walks need to come down, and he needs his HR/FB ratio to not be so astronomical. The stuff is still there, so I’m hopeful. But hope has been a dangerous thing all season for Astros fans.
Facing the Astros for the San Diego Padres will be Yordan Alvarez’ good friend Robbie Ray, who makes his first start for the Padres after being traded by the Giants at the trade deadline. Ray has had a pretty good 2026 campaign so far, with a 3.08 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) and a 10-6 record despite playing on a losing Giants team. This has been despite a career low K/9 of 7.9 and a 4.2 BB/9, which is on the high side. As a result, his advanced metrics come in a little higher than his ERA. His xERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are 4.43, 4.36, 4.74, and 4.76 respectively.
Astros @ Padres Game Information and Gamethread Details
The game will be broadcast at 8:40 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.
We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.
Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .
For more detailed instructions, please see the Guide to the Launch Angle.
If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link.
Supposedly the Astros were interested in trading for Ray at the deadline. But the trading cost was probably more than the Astros could afford. For my part, I was not particularly high on trading for Ray, for mostly the reasons stated in your discussion of his peripheral stats. Regression to the 4-ish range of ERA is likely at some point.
Setting all that aside, my impression (without looking it up) is that the Astros don’t play well at Petco Park. I hope that turns around.
Incidentally, tonight will be the first time Robbie Ray pitches against Yordan since…. Well you know.
One of the great mistakes in Seattle manager Scott Servais’ career.
The Stuff+ metric so far this year puts Blanco at about the same place as it was in 2024 and 2025. His Location is slightly above average (101 Location+ so far, and 101 over his career). His Stuff is slightly below average (94 Stuff+ so far and 90 Stuff+ for his career). Where does that put him? Pretty much an MLB average pitcher. That doesn’t sound like much, but truthfully the Astros are happy to have an average starting pitcher, given what has happened to the rotation this season.
Stuff+ says the change up is Ronel’s best pitch, by the way.