Occasionally, two steps forward, one step back. Sometimes it is one step forward followed by two steps back. That’s the Tatsuya Imai experience so far.
Fresh off consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts, it felt like Imai was turning the corner. His slider was breaking in unexpected ways with impressive results. The fastball control improved. The right-hander just looked more comfortable and confident on the mound. But progress is hardly linear. Those past issues that plagued Imai’s this season resurfaced against the Twins.
There was hardly anything to like about Imai’s start against Minnesota. Both his fastball and slider were hit hard, with an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph. Up to 112.6 mph on the max exit velocity. Only three whiffs on 11 swings against his slider. All of the progress from the previous two starts had evaporated. The Twins simply weren’t biting at what Imai was throwing.
Those struggles showed up in the box score, with Imai allowing five runs in only 1.1 innings, walking five while striking out two. While an early 5-1 deficit isn’t impossible to overcome, the Astros were playing catch-up all evening long. Sooner or later, there are only so many comeback attempts that will succeed before you inevitably come up short once again.
I think we all suspected it would be a long night for the Astros once Kody Clemens hit his three-run blast in the second inning. With Imai clearly not at his best, the bullpen would be tasked again with making up the difference. And the relief corps did, somewhat. First, AJ Blubaugh and Miguel Ullola deserve credit for their performances, a combined 4.2 innings with only two hits allowed, no walks, and six strikeouts (three each). Josh Hader deserves plenty of credit for helping this bullpen stabilize a bit further, but Blubaugh has pitched himself into a prominent role on this roster. Ullola might eventually get there, although his performances to date have been nothing short of impressive.
Unfortunately, the lineup couldn’t make up the difference in the box score, scoring only two more runs after Isaac Paredes’ RBI groundout in the first inning. Taj Bradley threw the ball extremely well, striking out 11 in five innings. Only back-to-back RBI singles by Joey Loperfido and Nick Allen in the sixth inning would lessen the deficit, but it was too little, too late. Yordan Alvarez also had three hits and a walk, although it didn’t lead to anything in terms of the outcome.
Now 43-46, the Astros thankfully remain only two games out of the lead for the mediocre AL West. Thankfully, Christian Walker’s removal later in the game only appears to be a minor back issue. But, sooner or later, Houston will likely have to find a way to get back over .500 in order to truly contend for a postseason berth, regardless of the division or wild card. And for that to happen, this team will need to see more progress from Imai in future starts. Wednesday’s loss, however, didn’t help his cause. And, for love of everything decent in this world, would someone please stop pitching to Josh Bell?
Feature photo from Astros on X
Like truly, what the f is wrong with this guy? Is it just nerves and a mental game problem or something??
My assessment is that when Imai doesn’t have his best stuff, he doesn’t know how to adjust.
Early in the season he did that by throwing outside the zone and being scared. He would walk lots of guys.
Now he does that less, but when he “trusts his stuff” and he isn’t having a great night from a stuff perspective, all it takes is one solid hit off a pitch he feels is good and he reverts back to pitching scared. As of right now, he lacks the ability to be effective or even eat innings when his pitches are more hittable than usual. Contrast that with Hunter Brown who really hasn’t pitched all that well by his standards since returning from the IL, but has kept his statline very pretty because he knows how to deal with nights when his stuff isn’t at 100%.
NPB guys are basically high pedigree AAA prospects. It makes a lot more sense see them develop based on that. Imai is having an up and down rookie season which is totally fine aside from the roster being built to rely on him as opposed to slotting him in as a high ceiling back end guy.
For example the tipping point in last night’s game wasn’t the leadoff double, it was the hit in the second inning. At that point Imai was laboring heavily and you could see the body language shrink. He didn’t know what to do, didn’t trust himself to get swing and miss outside and didn’t trust himself to pitch in the zone either.
Not saying you’re wrong, but how can he not know what to do? This might be his first year in MLB but I’m sure he’s had games where he didn’t have his stuff or he was getting hit around in NPB and had to figure it out. He’s a rookie, but also he’s not a rookie. Cody’s “enigma” label is the right word.
I think he commented early on the season about how NPB hitters approach their ABs differently. Maybe he knows how to deal with those days against NPB batters, but not MLB batters who are just better at attacking pitchers whose stuff doesn’t play on a given day.
There are probably location/etc tricks that play alright in NPB which simply don’t work against decent lineups here.
It could also just be a cop out for bad pitching
I mean obviously he pitched badly and has been terrible before. He’s also been excellent, and in the starts where he is good, not reliant on amazing luck to be good.
Parsing why he’s so up and down is part of what these questions are attempting to answer. I don’t think “he pitches badly” is enough of an explanation (unlike say for Weiss where his stuff just didn’t play at all in MLB and he only succeeded when lucky).
Imai has always been a high BB/9 pitcher, even in the NPB. He has had seasons in the NPB with a walk rate which is practically the same as his current walk rate. Somehow he navigated around the walks in the NPB. Maybe he just relied on the fact that he is hard to hit. Even in this season against MLB hitters, he is hard to hit. LHB and RHB batting averages are .259 and .176, respectively.
I agree with some things you’ve said, and it’s possible that the hard contact causes him to overreact by staying outside the zone. But watching the at bats, I’m not sure that’s the reason. When he completely loses control (mostly against LHBs), he throws pitches a foot or more away from the outside border. That’s not nibbling, which is what I would associate with “trying to avoid contact.” My inclination is to think that it’s a mechanical problem, and when the mechanical glitch happens, he doesn’t know how to immediately restore his mechanics. I think the root cause of his problems are throwing too low a percentage of strikes (his highest zone percentage in the game was around 40% for both the 4 seamer and slider), which means he doesn’t have sufficient time to fix a mechanical glitch when it arises, and then finally leads to throwing pitches down the middle when he has too many 3-0 and 3-1 counts. In his previous start (a good one vs. the Tigers) he had a 69% zone percentage on his 4 seam FB. And that’s probably the main difference–whether he can consistent throw his FB in the zone.
Then someone needs to team him the Greinke special: take two step offs per batter to mentally reset.
NPB doesn’t have a pitch clock. I wonder if that plays into Imai’s problems. With MLB’s pitch clock maybe he’s not used to having the time to reset himself and fix things mentally between pitches, cuz it’s time to rear back and do it again before he can reflect on what’s going wrong
The biggest acquisition and the biggest trade are a disaster (ERA around 6.0 half season). But, how independent is DB?