As the 2022 season ended, starting pitcher Cristian Javier appeared headed toward a promising future as one of the top tier MLB starting pitchers. He pitched to a dazzling 2.54 ERA in 2022, and two of his starts were no hitters–against the Yankees in the regular season and versus the Phillies in the World Series. He earned a lucrative contract extension based on his promise.
But Javier’s performance was much rougher in 2023, posting a mid-4’s ERA. His struggles continued in 2024 and ended when he was shut down for Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Javier returned from the TJ surgery in late 2025 with somewhat mixed results. But the Astros hoped that he could return to his previous performance level during the 2026 season. However, as indicated by his current 4.71 x-ERA, he has yet to prove that he can be the old Javier who held such promise. As a generalization, Javier tends to pitch well early in his starts but is exposed when facing the opponent a second time through the batting order. In reaction to this trend, the Astros have on occasion used an opener with Javier as the “bulk” pitcher.
However, Javier’s performance has been much better in more recent starts/bulk relief. In his last start, against Philadelphia, Javier allowed one run on three hits and one walk in six innings and struck out five. Javier has allowed a .118 batting average and a 3.05 FIP in his two September starts. For the month he has a 10.67 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. Javier’s FIP was 7.41 in the first half of the season, and it is 3.20 in the second half.
The recent performance raises the tantalizing question–is Javier starting to return to the old Javier profile? The answer could be the difference between winning the AL West or not. If Javier continues the performance level of his last start, that would be a big boost to the Astros in these final 11 days of the season. However, the pitching profiles of the current Javier is different than the Cristian Javier of 2022.
A 2023 Fangraphs article pointed out that Javier’s 4 seam fastball–sometimes called “the invisiball”–was the basis for his earlier success:
The root of his problems seemed to stem from his fastball. Javier is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, with his four-seamer making up nearly 60% of his pitch mix, but he can get away with such a limited repertoire because his heater is simply outstanding. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot but is able to generate an elite amount of ride on the pitch; elevating a pitch with those characteristics is a surefire way to produce one of the flattest four-seamers in baseball.
Two major factors in predicting the fastball quality were spin rate and induced vertical movement, which characterized the deceptive riding fastball. The same article showed how much the induced vertical break was associated with hitting results:
Through the pre-September period, Javier’s 2026 IVB was 16.8%, which was likely to result in poor fastball results. However, the September 2026 starts increased his four seem IVB by approximately 5%, which implies that his fastball’s vertical break exceeded the 19 inches of ride referenced in the FG article. However, Javier fastball spin rate still hasn’t reached the rate of his best seasons. In 2021 and 2022, Javier’s spin rate exceeded 2300 rpm, but in the Sept. 10 game this year, his spin rate was 2170 rpm. It’s also worth noting that Javier’s fastball velocity has returned close to his peak seasons’ levels. The average 4 seam velocity was 93.5 in both starts this month, which is almost the same as the 93.7 velocity in 2021 and 2022. Cristian’s invisiball may not be completely back, but it appears that it is close to back.
One of the keys for a pitcher to avoid damage is to minimize the batter launch angles that fall within the 15 – 35 degree range. The launch angle can indicate whether the batter is just skimming the top of the ball or the bottom of the ball. In his last start, Javier produced an average fastball launch angle of 10 degrees which produced low exit velocities of 82 mph. In his first start of September, Javier’s fastball had a 32 degree launch angle, which produced higher exit velocities (91.7 mph average). In 2021 and 2022, Javier produced a sizeable percentage of launch angles higher than 40 degrees. As a result, Javier yielded a very high flyball rate, but with less damage. If Javier can keep the launch angles below 15 degrees or above 35 degrees, he is likely to avoid damage.
The Fangraphs metric summary for Javier’s last start is shown below.
Javier’s profile is no longer the same as the old Javier because he is no longer a two pitch pitcher. The slider, which has sweeping action, produces the best pure stuff, as shown by the 128 Stuff rating. In his last start, Javier was locating his pitches well (106 Location+) and he was limiting walks by throwing change ups and cutters which he commanded well inside the zone. The fastball and change up were both used to induce swings outside the zone.
In his current form, Javier relies more on control and command than he did in his earlier days. But he still draws swings and misses on the fastball (11 swinging strikes in this game). The question now is whether Javier is on a progressive path of maturation. Or was September a short flash in the pan performance? That part of what we will find out today.
Royals @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details
Opposite Javier, starting for the Royals will be Daniel Lynch IV, the former 2018 first round southpaw pick of the Royals. Lynch has pitched in 53 games this season, pitching from the bullpen until the first week of August, when he was moved into the starting rotation. In his 7 starts since he moved into the rotation, he’s ramped up his pitched count. In his last start, he went 5 innings and a season high 81 pitches, allowing two runs to the Diamondbacks on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts. Lynch has a 3.52 ERA on the season, with a 1.10 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.
He’s struggled as a starter. As a reliever, he had a 1.96 ERA and 0.935 ERA in 46 innings, with a 6.8 K/9. Since he joined the rotation, in his 7 starts, he has a 6.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 25.2 innings and his K/9 has dropped to 4.9
The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.
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