The Launch Angle

It took me a long time to get to the pitchers because pitching is harder to break down as a position. You could go by left handed and right handed. You definitely can and should parse out relief pitchers (which we will do). However, you still have the problem that starting pitching in the 21st century is still vastly different than it was even in the 1980s and 1990s. So, we are likely going to have to break it down largely in 20 year increments.

We profiled 13 total pitchers that started or pitched most of their careers in the 21st century. As commenters pointed out, there are current pitchers that could be added to the list, but they might also be the first for those that spent most of their careers pitching after the pandemic.

What we are seeing in these 13 pitchers is the same that we see at every position. We are looking for similarities and as you move further down the list there will be more similarities. The first group had only three names. This group has four. The last group has six. This is simply the way the data fell, but it makes perfect sense. There are fewer players on top because there are fewer players that are great.

Pitcher Index

The index is not designed to rank order players. I have to make that same disclaimer every time I publish one of these, but it is dreadfully important. Sabathia is not necessarily a better pitcher than Sale or even Pettitte. Greinke is not necessarily better than all of them, but considering the gap it is much more likely.

The index is designed to put players in similar groups. For instance, we know Sabathia is already in the Hall of Fame. Therefore, it makes perfect sense that Greinke should be there and that Sale will eventually get there. It is more interesting to consider Pettitte’s presence there. There are mitigating factors that include an admission of PED use, but evaluating just the numbers makes it hard to justify not putting him in.

Yet, this is why the index is never the final word on anything. We will look at the sabermetric pitching numbers, awards voting, and the postseason performance to see if the index itself makes sense. Again, no single tests says you are in or out. It simply groups guys into packs of pitchers that are similar. If they are mostly in then that pitcher should be in. If they mostly fall short then that pitcher probably falls short.

Pitcher Sabermetric Numbers

Sale is obviously not finished and is in the midst of another stellar season. That will change not only the overall numbers here, but the awards voting numbers as well. Is he the likely Cy Young winner? That’s hard to say, but anothet top five finish seems likely based on what we are watching now. So, if he is effective for another year or two beyond this season he might find his way into the group with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw.

The other three are remarkably similar and since they are all retired it is much easier to compare them. Whether Pettitte and Greinke are better than Sabathia is immaterial. They are all very similar. It all becomes an “if…then” statement. If Sabathia is a Hall of Famer then Pettitte should be two. They have an identical number of neutral wins, nearly identical ERA+ stats, and their percentage of quality starts is also nearly identical. I dare say Greinke was better.

Pitchers Awards

Different tests show different things and that is why we include more than one test. The awards voting shows high end greatness. People are often more captivated for high end greatness. It isn’t a requirement to be the best pitcher in the league in any particular season, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. The Cy Young category is for pitchers that lead the league in pitcher BWAR. Greinke obviously has an advantage there.

Sabathia obviously has an advantage over Pettitte in this category, so that tells us that Pettitte was more consistently good throughout his career, but Sabathia was occasionally great. Data is just data. It is still open to interpretation. Some would prefer to have consistency over random precision. Others are captivated by high end performance. I am not here to parse the difference.

If it were me voting then I would tend to look on this as evidence that Sabathia was slightly better, but I am just one person and I don’t have a vote. The point is to stack as much evidence as possible. The sabermetric numbers are a push. The awards voting is a point in Sabathia’s favor. Let’s see what happens when we look at postseason performance.

Postseason Pitching Performance

No one has more postseason victories than Andy Pettitte. Of course, that is a double edged sword. Yes, it is a sign of greatness, but it is more a sign of opportunity. No one has more postseason innings in history. It is an uncomfortable question of value. For one, how much weight do we give these numbers. Is a postseason more valuable than a regular season inning? Is it twice as valuable? Three times as valuable?

Then, you have the question of whether players that play on great teams deserve extra credit. A Felix Hernandez had no postseason innings. Is that his fault? Are we to really ding Sale because of his struggles in a small sample size? There is way too much going on here.

In the case of Sabathia and Pettitte, they were both somewhat successful, so it is only a matter of degree. Still, Pettitte has a seeming advantage here and if postseason performance is a tiebreaker then he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame because this breaks the tie.

Originally published in Thoughts from A Native Texan on May 30, 2026. Feature photo from  @astros on X,  Source Link