Earlier this month, the Astros won in Cincinnati for the first time since 2012. Yesterday, the Astros won in Wrigley Field for the first time since 2013. As far as road trips go, it’s been a good month for switching lanes on the highway.
Now let’s see if it’s a good month for switching lanes on the Kai-Wei. (I don’t apologize for making you groan. I’m going to milk Kai-Wei Teng puns for as long as I can.)
Kai-Wei Teng tries to make it two in a row for the Astros at the Friendly Confines, as he makes his fourth start of the season tonight. Faced with a slew of starting pitching injuries and ineffectiveness, the Astros decided to try Teng out as a starter.
Before his first start, I wrote up a piece analyzing the move, and I had some concerns. Teng had shown himself to be very effective in the pen, but when the Giants used him as a starter, Teng’s effectiveness dropped dramatically once he started seeing batters a second time through the order.
Let’s take a look at how the transition has been going for him through his first 3 starts.
| Date | Opponent | Days of Rest | IP | Batters Faced | Pitches | Average 4SFB velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/28 | @BAL | 2 | 3.0 | 13 | 42 | 92.2 |
| 5/10 | @CIN | 5 | 3.0 | 15 | 63 | 93.6 |
| 5/16 | TEX | 5 | 5.0 | 21 | 76 | 93.1 |
Teng has been getting stretched out. He’s thrown more pitches each time out, gone deeper into his games, and faced more batters. Not only is he facing the lineup a second time through the order, his last time out he faced the top of the order a third time through as well.
He’s been able maintain velocity despite the longer outings too, averaging 93.6 and 93.1 mph on his fastball in his last two starts, which came on usual 5 day rest. This is a tick below his season average of 94.4 mph on his fastball, but a small drop in velo is par for the course when you’re asked to cover more innings.
The stamina seem to be progressing. I expect to see him with a pitch count in the 80s today.
How has he fared seeing batters a second time through the order? Has it been better than 2025 with the Giants? We only have 19 plate appearances the 2nd time through the order so far, but we can compare anyways:
| 1st time seeing batter in game as SP (2025) | 2nd time seeing batter in game as SP (2025) | 1st time seeing batter in game as SP (2026) | 2nd time seeing batter in game as SP (2026) | As RP (2026) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAs | 63 | 51 | 27 | 19 | 76 |
| BA | .173 | .342 | .250 | .375 | .145 |
| OBP | .317 | .490 | .333 | .474 | .224 |
| SLG | .327 | .368 | .333 | .563 | .275 |
| OPS | .644 | .859 | .667 | 1.036 | .499 |
| BB | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| K | 23 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| K:BB | 2.88 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.86 |
Even just through 3 starts, the trend is remarkably similar. He does quite well the first time through the order, but the slash lines jump up considerably the second time through. You would expect some decrease in efficacy for any pitcher who faces a batter for a second time, but Teng’s dropoff is significant even take that into account.
His numbers are even better as a reliever. That shouldn’t be too surprising; they ought to be better, as a manager can pick his spots where to insert him, and optimize his usage according to matchups.
It’s the second time through the order that is limiting him, and in his defense, he is making adjustments to try to address this weakness. His pitch selection has become more diverse over the 3 starts, something that a starting pitcher really needs to lean into if he aims to go deep into games.
| 4/28 @BAL | 5/10 @CIN | 5/16 @TEX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 38% | 40% | 32% |
| 4-Seam FB | 10% | 27% | 28% |
| Sinker | 21% | 13% | 20% |
| Changeup | 12% | 8% | 14% |
| Curveball | 19% | 13% | 7% |
Teng seems best suited for the pen at this point, possibly as a multi inning weapon, but until better options are available for the rotation, he may remain a starting pitcher for the foreseeable future.
Astros @ Cubs Game Information and Gamethread Details
Kai-Wei Teng faces Colin Rea, the 35 year old right handed veteran, who comes in with a 4-2 record in 10 games, including 7 starts and 1 save. He has a 4.98 ERA on the season, on the back of a 1.426 WHIP below his career standard.
The Cubs are 29-22 and have now dropped 6 in row and 10 of their last 12 games.
This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.
The game will be broadcast at 1:20 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads, even during this trying season. I’d tell you misery loves company, but even with the Astros losing, it’s still been pretty fun in the gamethreads.
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Feature photo courtesy HTXinCHS (cropped – original).
Would the Astros be giving Teng an opportunity to start under normal conditions? (6 decent starting pitchers). Definitely, no.
Nope. You know, it’s worth noting that Dana, whom I don’t think should have a job, was wanting to have Pearson as a starter. Then he got hurt so, yeah. But to your point, Teng was never in the conversation as a starter other than possible everything goes wrong insurance….like that would ever happen lol
The alternate title was “This stretch of Kai-Wei is under construction”
I kind of wish I had gone with that now.