The Launch Angle

After the 2024 season, Jose Altuve lobbied hard for the Astros to keep Alex Bregman, who was entering free agency. Bregman ultimately signed with the Boston Red Sox, but opted out of his contract after one season and signed a five year, $175 million deal with the Cubs. Today marks the first time that the Houston Astros face Bregman in a Cubs uniform.

Losing a franchise great like Bregman is never easy. The Astros have lost a lot of greats over the past decade: George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker to name a few. The question is always “how do you replace them?”

Bregman’s “replacement” was essentially Isaac Paredes. Paredes came in the Kyle Tucker Cubs trade with Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski, but Paredes’ role would be more akin to Bregman’s than Tucker’s. A right handed hitting third baseman, patient at the plate, with pull power designed to take advantage of the Crawford Boxes. Through this season and last, Paredes has done a decent impression of Bregman.

Paredes, although he missed a little more time to injury, has managed to match Bregman pretty well, at least offensively. He has worked walks and hit long balls at about the same clip. Their slash lines are remarkably similar. Really, the only thing that differentiates them is their defense. Bregman, a Gold Glover, has posted a 4.8 Def over the last 2 years, whereas Paredes registered a -2.8 Def. The defensive gap accounts for Bregman being worth 4.1 fWAR since he’s left Houston and Paredes being worth just 3.1 fWAR.

There may also be one other thing, but it’s not something you can find on Fangraphs advanced stats or Baseball Savant’s sliders: leadership.

Needing to bring the Astros to the next level, Jeff Luhnow brought in veteran presences to the 2017 team. Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran helped to guide and focus a team filled with young talent. (Although not always in the greatest way, in the case of Beltran.) Later Michael Brantley and Martin Maldonado would join and also become clubhouse leaders. As Carlos Correa moved from early career to seasoned veteran, he also emerged as a leader. One by one, each of these leaders left. By 2024, all of them were gone and Bregman filled the void.

Bregman was the only one who really could. Jose Altuve was never the type to lead other than by example. Kyle Tucker was blessed with many gifts, but seemed 30 grade in charisma. I don’t think I’ve ever heard Yordan say more than 50 words total in his career. Everyone else was either too young or too unaccomplished.

When Bregman and Ryan Pressly left in 2025, the lack of leadership on the roster became a point of concern and discussion. Players acknowledged that Bregman was the clubhouse leader in 2024, and a new one would have to emerge. When none did, and the Astros traded back for Carlos Correa at the deadline, he immediately resumed his role at the head of the locker room. He had been that in 2026 as well, although now that Correa is out for the season with injury.

On the pitching side, Pressly had been the staff veteran presence, the go-to guy for help and advice, but he also left after the 2024 season, in a trade. Josh Hader filled his role as closer, but not necessarily as pitching staff leader. Late in 2025, Dana Brown even brought back Hector Neris, in the hopes of adding back some of his veteran leadership, but his on-field struggles couldn’t justify keeping him on the roster.

TLA writer Clack commented a month ago, after Tastuya Imai’s disastrous 1/3 of an inning start against Seattle:

In post game interviews I was struck by Imai saying he would rely upon conversations with other Astros’ pitchers to find out how they made adjustments to pitching in a new environment. And I realize that the Astros no longer have a lot of veteran leaders among starting pitchers to provide that support. Maybe Hunter Brown, who is now injured and may or may not be with the team. Maybe LMJ. But most of these guys, like Burrows, Weiss, Blubaugh, etc., are themselves trying to figure things out.

Who is the go-to guy on the pitching staff now? Is long-tenured Lance? Lance is trying to figure things out at this point of his career just as much as any of he young guys, no longer the same guy he was before his many recent injuries (and he’s back on the IL again.) Hunter Brown is the ace, but he’s also just 2 years removed from a 9.78 ERA March/April 2024, where he wasn’t sure if he might get sent back down to AAA or whether he was on the verge of washing out. He’s a veteran at this point, but not a seasoned elder statesman.

Who was it that helped transform Brown from that 9.78 ERA pitcher into the Cy level pitcher he is now? Two leaders: One was Pressly. The other was Alex Bregman.

I bring up the question of leadership, because the 2026 Astros frequently look like a team that is lost. When you’re lost, you need direction. To get direction, you need leaders, and Alex Bregman sitting in the opposite dugout is a reminder that the Astros are short on those.

Astros @ Cubs Game Information and Gamethread Details

Spencer Arrighetti starts for the Astros today. With a 1.50 ERA over 6 starts, he’s erased memories of his underwhelming 2025 season and pedestrian spring. He’s the closest thing on this pitching staff to an “ace”, even if advanced metric suggest he still struggles with left handed batters.

34 year old veteran right hander Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs. Taillon sports a 4.97 ERA in 50.1 innings of work across 9 starts, with a 3.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 and a 1.204 WHIP.

The Cubs are 29-21 on the season, a record enviable to the Astros for sure, but come in on a down note, having lost 9 of their last 11 games. Prior to that, they had ripped off 10 wins in a row.

This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.

The game will be broadcast at 1:20 p.m. CT on Apple TV with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been amazing on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads, even during this trying season. I’d tell you misery loves company, but even with the Astros losing, it’s still been pretty fun in the gamethreads.

Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .

For more detailed instructions, please see the Guide to the Launch Angle.

If you’ve participated in game threads on other Astros sites in the past, you will probably see a lot of familiar names. Chat, lurk, do whatever! (But please say “hi”, so we know you’re not a bot.)

Feature photo from  @astros on X,  Source Link