Bryan Abreu got the last out and the save Tuesday night against the Twins, but those nine pitches he threw were incredibly stressful. And erratic. That slider, left in the middle of the zone, was the pitch that generated the last out. I don’t think Byron Buxton misses a hanging slider like this one next time.
Other than the end result, there wasn’t much to like about Abreu’s appearance. His fastball velocity only topped out at 94.3 mph on Tuesday, still a far cry from even his average of 97.3 mph last season. The velocity decline has been a season-long issue, with the occasional burst at different intervals.
But, on average, Abreu’s fastball velocity remains depressed. Only three qualified pitchers have seen their average four-seam velocity decline more year-over-year. To no great surprise, Abreu’s spin rate has also noticeably declined, with the current rate of 2144 rpm representing a career low. For context, his four-seam spin rate hasn’t averaged less than 2300 rpm since 2021. He can’t locate worth a dang either, with strikeouts sharply down and walks much higher. On a scale where 100 is average, his Location+ has trended down from 92 in 2025 to only 79 this year. While his slider is a valuable pitch, Abreu can’t lean on it exclusively. Opposing hitters know that his fastball is an issue and will lay off the slider otherwise, unless it catches too much of the zone. Until he can throw his fastball confidently and effectively for strikes, the overall struggles will continue.
In other words, he’s currently a mess on the mound.
Issues with his delivery and mechanics appear to be the root cause, as both Abreu and the Astros insisted in April that he was healthy. It is worth noting that Abreu’s arm angle has increased, from 41 degrees in 2025 to 43 degrees this season. Of course, his average arm angle in 2024 was 45 degrees. It was also 42 degrees in 2023, so the difference in arm angle doesn’t really explain much on its own. But, as a byproduct of any delivery and mechanical issues, Abreu’s four-seam shape has changed, with the pitch dropping more when it approaches the plate.
While pitch release points tend to vary somewhat from game to game, Abreu’s release has been all over the place in 2026. For example, take a look at his four-seam horizontal release point from 2025 onward.
And here are his vertical release points for every game since 2025.
All of these factors help illustrate why Abreu is struggling as much as he is. Opposing hitters are slugging .591 against his four-seam compared to .259 last season. There is clearly something out of whack within his delivery and mechanics, which is impacting velocity, spin rate, and location. As noted by Abreu in Chandler Rome’s April article on the subject, the right-hander recognizes that his delivery and mechanics are off. The data shows he is trying to find a solution. Again, both he and the Astros, at least publicly, don’t think it is a health-related issue, although the data invites speculation otherwise. Regardless, Abreu has to figure out his fastball problems, not only for this season but for future seasons, with free agency looming later this year.
Feature photo from Astros on X, Source Link
