We get to the very end of our journey with position players. We have identified the two best right fielders not in the Hall of Fame. Neither of them were tainted by steroids, so the only real question is how they compare with the rank and file guys that are already in.
We should talk a minute about what rank and file means. Essentially, we take the median of the index in the Hall of Fame. We then eliminate the outliers on both ends of the spectrum. What you have in between is a pretty tight distribution (with some notable exceptions). The general idea is that those on the outside looking in should fit within that distribution. If they come in below then they probably aren’t Hall of Famers.
These tests are in addition to ones we have already conducted. The general idea is that we look at a preponderance of the evidence. If we do enough tests then we find players that Abreu and Evans will be most similar to. If they are Hall of Famers then Abreu and Evans should also be Hall of Famers.
RF WAR seasons
| 5 WAR | 4 WAR | 3 WAR | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Crawford | 8 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| Dwight Evans | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| Larry Walker | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| Harry Heilmann | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Dave Winfield | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| Bobby Abreu | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| Willie Keeler | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| Tony Gwynn | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Elmer Flick | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Kiki Cuyler | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Enos Slaughter | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
Both Evans and Abreu look like Hall of Famers when we look at the WAR seasons. They certainly come out looking better when we look at these numbers. Obviously, who you prefer is dependent on your particular tastes. Some like a longer period of solid performance. Others prefer top end performance. Evans offers the former while Abreu offers the latter.
I should point to Elmer Flick here because his name will come up later. Remember the term preponderance of the evidence. While he exists at the bottom of this list, he comes out considerably better than Cuyler and Slaughter because of those high end seasons. That will come up later when we look at other tests.
Otherwise, these scores are pretty tight which is what we would expect. Hall of Famers will look alike once we remove the outliers. The beauty is that it gives us a benchmark to go on when we get future right fielders that want to get into Cooperstown.
RF ROV and BPO
| AVG | SEC | ROV | BPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Walker | 0.313 | 0.407 | 0.360 | 1.027 |
| Bobby Abreu | 0.291 | 0.390 | 0.341 | 0.928 |
| Vladimir Guerroro | 0.318 | 0.336 | 0.327 | 0.921 |
| Harry Heilmann | 0.342 | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.924 |
| Elmer Flick | 0.313 | 0.298 | 0.306 | 0.879 |
| Kiki Cuyler | 0.321 | 0.272 | 0.297 | 0.855 |
| Dwight Evans | 0.272 | 0.355 | 0.314 | 0.826 |
| Enos Slaugher | 0.300 | 0.283 | 0.292 | 0.808 |
| Tony Gwynn | 0.338 | 0.226 | 0.282 | 0.809 |
| Dave Winfield | 0.283 | 0.314 | 0.299 | 0.794 |
| Sam Crawford | 0.309 | 0.256 | 0.283 | 0.795 |
| Willie Keeler | 0.341 | 0.192 | 0.267 | 0.782 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.311 | 0.196 | 0.254 | 0.728 |
There is no statistic more overrated than batting average. It has clouded the judgment of executives and fans alike for generations. It has certainly clouded the judgement of Hall of Fame voters. That certainly comes up with Abreu and Evans. Most of these hitters hit .300 or better. Neither of those two did, but the secondary averages made them better than what people would think.
In particular, Abreu compares very favorably with Guerrero. Guerrero was a first ballot Hall of Famer while Abreu has fallen off the ballot. There really is no rhyme and reason for it outside of the batting average. Guerrero also had the cannon for an arm, but the numbers say something else. They are extremely similar.
As we will see, Evans is actually most similar to Gwynn. The fact is that he was a better overall player than Gwynn. He was certainly better defensively and when you look at ROV and BPO he was better offensively. He was better when looking at WAR seasons as well.
RF Total Runs
| RC | Rfield | Rbaser | RPos | TR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Walker | 1,613 | 94 | 40 | −70 | 1,677 |
| Dave Winfield | 1,813 | −91 | 38 | −127 | 1,633 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 1,501 | 121 | 62 | −77 | 1,607 |
| Bobby Abreu | 1,708 | −7 | 16 | −95 | 1,604 |
| Tony Gwynn | 1,636 | 7 | 23 | −78 | 1,588 |
| Dwight Evans | 1,612 | 66 | 3 | −113 | 1,568 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 1,626 | 7 | −3 | −108 | 1,522 |
| Harry Heilmann | 1,658 | −44 | −3 | −92 | 1,519 |
| Sam Crawford | 1,569 | −36 | −3 | −116 | 1,414 |
| Enos Slaughter | 1,366 | 20 | 11 | −92 | 1,305 |
| Willie Keeler | 1,378 | 30 | −6 | −114 | 1,288 |
| Kiki Cuyler | 1,305 | 14 | 23 | −65 | 1,278 |
| Elmer Flick | 952 | 30 | 0 | −77 | 905 |
Again, it’s about who Abreu and Evans are similar to. If we can assume that Abreu is similar to Guerrero and Evans is similar to Gwynn then we can get an idea of how ridiculous that they are not in the Hall of Fame. The general idea is a misunderstanding of where value comes from. Even when we ignore WAR you can see the value in these last two tests.
If they existed towards the bottom of this list I could see leaving them out. Heck, I could see leaving Flick out if he were coming up on the ballot today. Evans and Abreu are way above the median here. They should be in the Hall of Fame, but they have been denied because the process is not set up to eliminate potential wrongs as much as it is to focus on specific eras.
Instead, we should focus on the best players at each position not currently in the Hall of Fame. Abreu and Evans may not be the most egregious omissions amongst all of the positions, but they are the most egregious in right field. A ballot made up of position players that rank as the best at their positions not in the Hall of Fame would be an interesting one. That is hopefully the direction the Veterans Committee will go, but I’m not holding my breath.
Originally published in Thoughts from A Native Texan on May 17, 2026. Feature photo by Jeffrey Hayes. Creative Commons License.
.jpg){kind=link}