In the month of April (along with those few days at the end of March), Yordan Alvarez was absolutely unstoppable at the plate. He batted .356, with an OBP of .462, a SLG of .737 and a 1.199 OPS. He walked 21 times, while striking out just 14 times in 143 plate appearances, and hit 12 home runs.
He was the clear March/April AL Player on the Month winner.
Now that the page has turned to May, we’re seeing different results. Through 46 plate appearances, he’s batting just .171, with an OBP of .261, slugging a miniscule .268 with a .529 OPS. He’s drawn just 4 walks, and struck out 17 times, 3 more than the previous month, in about a third of the games.
| Month | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/April | .356 | .462 | .737 | 1.199 |
| May | .171 | .261 | .268 | .529 |
Where did April Yordan go? May Yordan isn’t what April Yordan was, but he’s not actually been as bad as you think.
| Month | xBA | xOBP | xSLG | xOBP + xSLG | xwOBA | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/April | .372 | .478 | .812 | 1.290 | .528 | .323 |
| May | .273 | .353 | .450 | .803 | .354 | .261 |
A drop in BABIP from .323 to .261 is going to drive your numbers down. Yordan in May hasn’t been hit like Yordan usually does, but he’s also not actually hitting like a tru .529 OPS hitter. For comparison, A .529 OPS is worse than Martin Maldonado at the plate at the end of his Astros career, who lived in the .570 to .610 range. By quality of batted ball (meaning launch angle and exit velocity), Yordan’s performance at the plate in May is more akin to what you would expect from someone with an .803 OPS.
An .803 OPS would still below Yordan’s standards (his career OPS is .965), but it would still make him the best hitter on the team in May.
Here are the xStats for all Astros in the month of May who have seen at least 95 pitches:
| xOBP | xSLG | xOBP + xSLG | OPS | OPS – (xOBP + xSLG) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | .353 | .450 | .803 | .529 | -0.274 |
| Isaac Paredes | .369 | .395 | .764 | .755 | -0.009 |
| Cam Smith | .316 | .445 | .761 | .422 | -0.339 |
| Jose Altuve | .323 | .412 | .735 | .660 | -0.075 |
| Brice Matthews | .265 | .442 | .707 | .631 | -0.076 |
| Christian Walker | .291 | .377 | .668 | .713 | +0.045 |
| Christian Vazquez | .208 | .286 | .494 | .492 | -0.002 |
Yordan still ranks as the top for “xOPS” (calculated by adding his xOBP and xSLG together). But his May slump is very noticeable because the difference between his actual OPS and xOPS is so large. So whiel it’s true that Yordan is not performing to his standards, some (actually a lot of) bad batted ball luck exaggerates his underperformance.
He’s still the best hitter on the Astros, and that bears out when you look at his Baseball Savant sliders:
Source: Baseball Savant
Source: Baseball Savant
On the left is a snapshot of Yordan’s sliders I took on April 20, for the piece discussing whether the Astros should trade him or not. On the right are his sliders as of yesterday. For his terrible month of may, his sliders are still a sea of red. He’s actually increased his hard hit ball rate and average exit velocity. Yordan will still drive the Astros’ offense, and he’s still the main reason to tune in each game.
It should be noted that most every Astro hitter (well, not Braden Shewmake) appears to be snakebit, with their actual May OPS lagging behind their expected. Cam Smith in particular has a whopping -0..339 difference between his OPS and xOPS. Some luck normalization should help an offense that has dropped off its blistering April pace. The loss of Carlos Correa for the season still hurts but Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers’ impending returns should also help.
Mariners @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details
It’s a day game to close out the 4 game home series against the Mariners, before the Astros host the Rangers for the next 3 games. The Astros will try to scrape out a series split with a win today. Mike Burrows starts for the Astros opposite Luis Castillo.
Yordan should be especially excited for today’s game, as he faces Mariners’ right handed starting pitcher Luis Castillo. In 19 ABs against Castillo, Yordan has a .474 average, with 9 hits, including 3 home runs. He holds a 1.524 OPS against Castillo.
Starting lineups will be added to this post when they are made available.
The game will be broadcast at 1:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been fantastic on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.
Join us again for today’s game. Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .
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Feature photo by thatlostdog. Creative Commons License.
That’s a nice discussion of the Astros’ offense’s May number. Yes, it should normalize.
The Astros will face Castillo today. Castillo has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over his career. But he has struggled mightily this season with an ERA well over 6. However, he had his first really good start on May 12. His BABIP and LOB luck (sequencing luck) have been career worst. So, some normalization may help him in the future. Castillo has the high FB / slider tunneling pitch style that may be vulnerable to the lower top rail ABS strike zone. This is the same issue that has hindered so many Astros’ pitchers (namely Burrows, who will also pitch in this game). Here is a Rotographs article about Castillo: