Yordan Alvarez is the best player on the Houston Astros, and one of the best, if not the best, hitter in the majors.
The Houston Astros are a train wreck who, as its stands, don’t look to be anywhere near contending in 2026.
Both of these things are true. There is talk of firing Joe Espada; there is talk of firing Dana Brown. If this disaster of a season continues, it seems likely that wholesale changes would be coming.
The Astros have not been sellers at the deadline for a very very long time. That, combined with the loss of 2 years worth of first and second round draft picks in 2020 and 2021 due to the sign stealing scandal, has led to the bottom of the barrel farm system the organization has been working with the last couple years.
If they are sellers this season (and it’s looking increasingly inevitable that they are), they will sell off anything not tied down after this season. If Christian Vazquez continues to produce, he might get something in return. If Lance McCullers, Jr. proves himself a passable arm that a contending team could use, he could be shipped off. If Bryan Abreu miraculously stops being 2026 15.21 ERA Bryan Abreu, maybe there could be a suitor. The Astros could test the waters on Isaac Paredes and Tastuya Imai as well, and even consider moving assets under control for 2027, like All-Star shortstop Jeremy Pena.
The crown jewel that could fetch a king’s ransom would be Yordan Alvarez.
Would the Astros ever consider trading Alvarez? Should they? This question was borne out of a discussion on the TLA Discord Server at the end of yesterday’s extra innings loss to the Cardinals.
Alvarez signed a 6 year contract extension in 2022 for $115 million covering the 2023-2028 seasons. These are his 3 arbitration years and first 3 years if what would have been free agency. This 2026 season would have been his first year of free agency, had he not signed that contract extension.
If Alvarez were to be traded at the deadline, his new team would essentially get Yordan for 2.5 years (and more importantly 3 postseasons) for $67 million. Their luxury tax hit would still only be a little over $19 million a year though.
That is a fantastic value for quite possibly the best hitter in the majors, whose Baseball Savant sliders look like this:
That’s not an aberration of a small sample size of 2026 either. Every year of his career, his sliders have looked like this.
For 2.5 years of this hitter in his prime, the Astros could conceivably restock and rebuild like they were trading prime Herschel Walker.
But you’d have to be of the mindset that 2027 and 2028 will be noncompetitive years for the Astros as well. If you think they could contend in 2027, you hang on to a generational hitter like Yordan.
This is the last year the Astros could have full reign over whether and where to trade Alvarez. Beginning in 2027, Alvarez would get to designate 10 teams he can enforce a no-trade clause to.
I want to hear what you think. Vote in this poll and comment at the end of the article. Is this the most sensible way forward for the organization? Or am I high because today’s date is 4/20?
Fresh off being swept for the third time in this young season, the Astros travel to Cleveland to start a 3 game series against the Guardians, before their first off day since April 9, after which they’ll come back to Houston to host the Yankees.
Spencer Arrighetti, author of only the Astros’ 3rd quality start of the season in his first start last week against the Rockies, starts on the mound for the Astros. Right handed pitcher Slade Cecconi starts for Cleveland.
Not much of a preview today, as I think most Astros fans are thinking about what the long term plan is for this organization, and are less concerned with the day to day contests. I figure the idea of trading Air Yordan is enough to think about for now.
This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.
Update:
The game will be broadcast at an unusual time for an eastern time zone game, at 5:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM. Cleveland likes to start their weeknight games an hour earlier. People can often more easily go straight from work to the game, and fans can also get home earlier, which is nice because most people have work or school the next day.
I know that you are all still deranged and watching this team, because participation in our TLA Gamethreads on our Discord server have not dropped off… at all.
My guess is that the turnout is more for each other and not necessarily for the Astros at this point. It’s a great community, and we hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game on the TLA Discord Server.
Just join the Discord server using this link: https://launch-angle.com/discord .
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So far after 50 votes, it’s 18 votes to trade, 32 to not trade.
So, for me, I think it makes sense, but as vulpes has said previously, i hate the idea of leaving twilight years Altuve on a ghost town team. Let Altuve compete til he retires and let him do it in Houston. And if you’re not gonna boot any years, then keep Yordan.
You don’t do this. You will never get the value. It will curse the team for 50 years. It’s the right thing to do, but never ever do it!!!!
The comp would be the Juan Soto trade from the Nats to the Padres. Soto had 2 and half years of control left, similar in prominence as a hitter, and got a big return. Now.. it doesnt look like the Nats did anythign with that return but, Gore, Wood, etc.. those were great return pieces.
My issue is that if that’s the direction the organization is moving in, we wouldn’t do a damn thing with the return either. And I don’t trust us to identify a return that is anywhere near Yordan’s value.
But do you trust us to actually have teams Yordan is worth being on in 27 and 28?
I think the prevailing sentiment is that the best course of action is to keep Yordan and to go hard on surroudning him with a contending team. I just don’t know that the astros have been doing that lately.
I trust nothing anymore now that the pitching development of the organization has been poor for the first time in ten years.
However, the fact that the Astros have not been doing what’s necessary to build around their core lately is a Jim Crane and Dana Brown problem. We have been fully capable of building around the core.
if we could somehow get a package of Misio and prospects from MIL you gotta pull the trigger especially if you arent resigning HB
I think Miz is as important to the Brewers winning now as anyone. its gotta be a future Miz.
Do it. Sell them all, except Altuve.
And that’s a shame for Altuve and absolutely slams shut any hope of being competitive for postseason for a few years.
But, it would personally make me sick to my stomach to see another 2007-2012 stretch, which is what I’m afraid would happen if retooling-on-a-budget is the continued order of the day.
The caveat here is, I really don’t want to see Dana Brown in charge of this project.
“ The caveat here is, I really don’t want to see Dana Brown in charge of this project.”
That’s why I voted no. There’s no rush to trade Yordan. In the event of a rebuild, Brown can deal the lesser pieces like Paredes at the deadline, but I would wait until after the front office is cleaned out and there’s a new GM with a clear long term plan, to trade guys like Yordan and Hunter. Those deals can be made late in the offseason or the next deadline if there is one.
It could conceivably get harder next year. Yordan has a 10 team no trade clause that kicks in next year. He seems like a loyal kind of guy and he may not want to leave Houston (God bless him).
Sell Yordan, and bring back Luhnow
I think that Luhnow bridge has been burned. They shoudl have never let Luhnow and AJ go. Firing them gave credibility to MLB’s scapegoating of the Astros. Leave them suspended for a year, and then bring them back as if nothing happened would have sent a message of “we dont give a f.” that was the correct way to go.
its easy to say that with hindsight. unfortunately it just happened to be at the peak of cancel culture. My Louisville Cardinals did the same thing firing Rick Pitino for violations that would be completely legal now.
Do you honestly think the billionaires who own MLB teams give a rat’s patoot about “cancel culture”? The other owners simply agreed to make Houston a patsy to cover the crimes of the game.
Not all that much different than KM Landis making the Black Sox the patsy for rampant gambling in baseball in those days.
the billionaire owners of my company sure did lol
they get caught together at the coldplay concert or something?
No, you NEVER trade a hitter the caliber of Yordan willingly. You keep him and build around him.
Like Babakanush said, you will NEVER get equal value out of anyone you receive in return.
thats fair – but it also doesnt seem like crane/brown is trying to do that (build around him). Just very frustrating that Yordan is doing the most Yordan things surrounded by this.
without an ace pitcher ie resigning HB we’re just the Angels with Trout for all those years
We could also pick up a high ceiling pitcher or two in trading other players, and then sign one veteran ace in FA for the next full season of play (2028).
In my opinion it’s borderline impossible to judge what Alvarez’s value was and the lock out makes it more complicated. Is he worth 1.5 years of trade value? 2.5 years? If you wait until the off season is it 2 years of value or 1 year?
A new GM with a new direction needs to come in first and entertain the trade.
I just don’t see it as unrealistic to trade pieces like Pena for a haul and try to piece the roster back together well for 2027 and see if you have a competitive window opening up. Then you can turn and try to deal for a package like we did Tucker.
I am not opposed to a selloff this year if necessary as I normally would be. Almost everyone on the table.
But Yordan should be viewed as untouchable. Because you will NEVER get back a return commensurate with his value. Ever.
We’re talking multiple AA/AAA top prospects plus top guys at the lower levels kind of return, and even then, Yordan is a generational hitter. I put him in the same category as Judge, Soto, prime Harper. You will not see another player like him in much the same way there will not be another Altuve for decades.
I can’t think of any prospect in the league who even has the potential to replicate his value. You could give a hundred top prospects and never see one like him, and we won’t get enough value in the aggregate to fill the void.
Of course if there’s a secret plan to not even try to compete by 2028, sure, you trade him. But I doubt I’m the only person whose patience will run out for a “rebuild” that takes anywhere near as long as the initial Crane/Lunhow years did. And ownership is aware of that.
It’s also a very deep insult to Altuve who, like it or not, is a bellwether for the franchise for many people, from hardcore to casual. Seeing him languish on terrible teams for years will create a lot of deep resentment towards the ownership of the franchise.
I’d trade Pena and even HB if needed. Not Yordan.
Extend Yordan, extend Smith to a team-friendly pre-CBA deal, and then sell the rest if need be to reset for 2028. Get a targeted mixture of guys in AA/AAA who will be ready to join the team in 2028, and lower level guys who will feed the farm over the next few years.
I put yes but it all depends on if they have any intention of signing HB or Pena. If they dont resign either than trade him might as well.
to expound further you need to keep some combination of an ace pitcher and a Yordan type player and build around that if they want to compete seriously.
Pena is another mystery with what to do with. He’s a valuable piece, but he would command a contract like you’re getting 2025 Pena every year. Would you be though? 2023 and 2024 level Pena is valuable too, but would you want to pay 2025 Pena prices for it? What Pena should we be expecting to get? (I’ve said Pena way too many times in 5 sentences.)
+SS defenders dont grow on trees.
true, and based on what ive seen of shay brice and neyens, they certainly arent growing in our farm system anymore, either.
If they sell Yordan, my commentary on discord was that they should sell everyone of value… HB, Pena, Walker, Paredes, Abreu (lol), King… bottom it out, lose the year/mickey mouse year of 27, and be ready for 28 with talent coming up AND salary flexibility to contend
Well one thing we agree on, if you sell Yordan, there’s no reason to keep anybody else. It is the ultimate “roll over and play dead” and not just for this year. If it was possible to be competitive in 2028 with a Yordan trade (plus everyone else worth anything) it would be less bad, but I think trading Yordan + the rest puts you in another five year cycle of tanking with zero reason to believe the team is competitive by 2030.
agreed, if you have ANY plans for 2027 or 2028, you keep Yordan
2027 probably isn’t happening, and I don’t see why this team would be a lot better in 2028 than they are now after a big FO shakeup. They’d be foolish to not trade Yordan if things are still looking down at the deadline.
IMO, there are 2 completely untouchable players on the roster – Altuve and Alvarez. That’s it.
The Angels is a good example. You can trade, sign, or draft anyone you like, but for as long as Artie Moreno is there, it won’t work. Crane is the problem. He won’t hire a Luhnow or a Click.
Having a lame duck GM makes this infinitely harder. Even for the draft – if DB stays I can see the draft becoming college heavy. Which would add a reason to keep Alvarez.
No no no. You don’t sell HOF players (which Yordan is heading towards) – you build around them. We got very lucky in the last rebuild as they dont work most times – if Mark Apple had signed things would have been very different. Look how its gone for the Red Sox trading away their best player in Betts, they have never recovered.
You might hate them (and their payroll), but the Dodgers and Yankees are always contending. They keep their mega stars and build around them, we just have to build smarter as we don’t have their mega payrolls (although ours is not small, it’s hamstrung by poor contracts – contracts done by the same people that would be doing the ‘fire sale)’.
Build around Yordan, Brown, Smith – they can be your core for the next 5-8, even 10 years, dont trade them away in the hope that an other team will mistakenly give away players that will shine in 3-4 years
“No no no. You don’t sell HOF players (which Yordan is heading towards) – you build around them. ”
How well did that work out for the Angels? Either we have a plan to win in 2028, or we trade Yordan to get *some* value out of him. That kind of half-in half-out “we’re kinda rebuilding but we’re keeping an HOFer!” nonsense doesn’t work.
It reminds me of the time when the Rockets considered trading Akeem Olajuwon. The problem, which the Rockets discovered, is that it would be impossible to get a return that is totally compensatory for a player of that caliber. Thankfully, Akeem and the Rockets came to an understanding, and the rest was history
I voted no as I want to see what happens with the new CBA. It seems to me the owners are hellbent on getting a cap/floor system. If this happens, I could see Crane extending Yordan within the parameters of the new CBA limitations. Also, I think there are enough pieces to sell off to just do a reload instead of a full rebuild, which is what you’d be doing if you trade Yordan. I’d definitely consider trading Pena, and I might even trade Hunter, but probably would wait until after this season so he can prove he’s healthy.
I don’t know if Yordan should be the first option to trade, but likely if Houston wants a massive re-load of the farm system, he would be the best candidate. With his bat, postseason experience and relatively friendly contract, Houston could ask for quite a deal. The “contending window” would be closed, but given the pitching staff and the injury attrition, the window was already slamming shut.