The last time the Astros won a game in the Great American Ballpark was September 9, 2012. The Astros were still in the American League. Jose Altuve was in his first All-Star season, but didn’t play in the match because 2 days earlier against the Reds, he strained an abdominal muscle running out a groundout.
(Note: I want to bring attention to the headline in that last link from 2012: “Injuries turn season from awful to absurd”. That feels like it could apply again in 2026.)
Granted, the Astros haven’t been back a whole lot since they moved to the AL in 2013. In 2019 they played a 3 game series there and were swept. In 2024, they played another 3 game series there, and were swept again.
Tonight, the Astros attempt again to win in Cincinnati for the first time as an American League team.
Mike Burrows will make his 7th start of the season. No starting pitcher, except maybe Spencer Arrighetti and Peter Lambert in their 4 starts apiece, have really performed to expectation this year, but if there’s one that you can be a little more hopeful than the others about, it’s Burrows.
Yes his ERA is an unsightly 5.97 and the 1-4 record is a disappointing, but there’s reason to believe that he’s been pitching better than the results he’s been getting. His xERA and xFIP are well lower than his ERA at 3.85 and 4.28. So is his SIERA at 4.10. Hitters have an absurd .387 BABIP against Burrows. The league average BABIP is .290 and as Burrows’ BABIP regresses towards that mean, the box scores should look better.
His last time out, he posted his first quality start, allowing 3 runs in 6 innings. Unfortunately, his offense only scored 1 run behind him.
Burrows’ Savant sliders are actually relatively decent, and they’re better than his 2025 ones, when he had a 111 ERA+
There’s still reason to believe Burrows is the #3 starting pitcher the Astros hoped they were getting when they traded Jacob Melton for him. That doesn’t really help a whole lot right now when there’s no #1 or #2 pitcher, but ignoring all that, and just focusing on tonight, Mike Burrows ought to give the team a chance to get that first win in Cincinnati as an AL team.
The Astros will be up agains 6’6″ lefty Nick Lodolo who makes his 2026 season debut after starting the season on the IL due to a blister. Lodolo is a good pitcher in his own right. He was offered a spot on the Team USA WBC roster, but declined, similar to Hunter Brown. Half his starts in 2025 were quality starts, giving his a more than respectable 3.33 ERA on the season, and striking out a batter per inning.
Nobody on the roster save Nick Allen, Isaac Paredes and Christian Vazquez have any experience against Lodolo, and only Paredes has gotten a hit off of him, 1 for 9 in his career against Lodolo.
So the Astros have a chance today, but the Reds don’t intend to make that chance very large.
Still, that first win in the Great American Ballpark as an AL team has to come some day. Why not today?
This post will be updated with starting lineups as they are made available.
The game will be broadcast at 5:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
We hope you will join us and the rest of the Launch Angle community for the game! The turnout has been fantastic on the TLA Discord Server for the game threads.
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Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link
