The Launch Angle

The Hall of Fame is a lower stakes comparison with the criminal justice system. There is often a debate over whether it is worse to let an unworthy player in the Hall of Fame or leave a worthy player out. Like executions, selections cannot be undone. So, I suppose admitting an unworthy player is worse because a worthy player can always be admitted down the line.

Still, it is unclear sometimes what the voters are thinking. Most of the time their decisions make sense, but occasionally there are glaring omissions. Center field is one of those slots where there are two glaring examples of players being overlooked for one reason or another.

As has been stated many times, being the best player on the outside does not necessarily mean you belong on the inside. That is why these studies are done in two equal parts. First, we identify the best players on the outside looking in. Then, we compare them with the rank and file Hall of Famers already in. If the players look like those players then they probably should be in. If they don’t then they shouldn’t. It’s really that simple. We should begin with the top five or six center fielders on the outside looking in.

CF WAR Seasons

We will certainly go through our other tests, but this table here says everything we need to know. Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds rise above the rest in terms of their fitness and it isn’t particularly close. Obviously, the question is whether those particular players are as good as those already in.

This is the fundamental problem with the way the Veterans Committee does business. They ask whether any particular player is a Hall of Famer. That seems like a reasonable question, but it is a flawed question. After all, Davis, Wynn, Cedeno, and Pinson may be Hall of Famers in some people’s eyes. Yet, they are not as good as Lofton or Edmonds.

I’m an Astros fan, it pains me to put Edmonds higher than Wynn or Cedeno, but the numbers just can’t support that. Those four might very well be as good as some players already in. We don’t compare players to every Hall of Famer because some shouldn’t have been in in the first place. That’s why we ask the question of who is the top player that isn’t in. We do this because when we consider lesser players due to an adherence to era rules or other considerations we might look up ten or twenty years down the line to see a handful of players that should have been in the whole time, but were cast aside because we were considering the resumes of lesser players.

CF ROV and BPO

Some of you are joining me for the first time. If you are doing so then you will be forgiven for asking why the offensive numbers are so flimsy. We have already looked at the offensive resumes for these players. We looked at OPS+, rOBA, and OW% the first go around. We also looked Rbaser and runs created. All of those are good numbers that tell us a lot of good things about a player’s offensive ability.

The advantage of OPS+ and OW% is that they norm their numbers for the ballpark and era. ROV and BPO do not do that, but they avoid the problems that are associated with OPS. OPS counts batting average twice. So, a player with a high career batting average will look better than he probably should. ROV combines batting average and secondary average.

Wynn’s numbers are particularly strong considering he spent his career in the Astrodome and Dodger Stadium in the 1960s and 70s. The secondary average is often overlooked. This is where Edmonds also shines and quite frankly looks better than Lofton. It is the power that makes the difference.

The others predictably come in at an average rate or below. It comes down to on base skills in many instances. The ability to draw walks is the one skill that often separates the very good players from the mediocre ones. Obviously, Willie Davis brings some impressive base running and defensive skills to the plate, but the overall offensive numbers are underwhelming.

CF Total Runs

Many people reading this are Astros fans. So, they will be very interested in why Cedeno and Wynn come up short. The BWAR seasons and total runs tables tell us the same thing. They just didn’t sustain it for long enough. The reasons why are always interesting and always compelling. Usually, there are injuries involved and it is no different in their particular case.

It’s a tale as old as time itself. Every fan base has a guy or two they could describe that way. If only they were healthy. Pinson and Davis are different stories. They were legitimately good players that just weren’t quite good enough. They are players I would love to take out of a time machine and transplant into center field right now. Yet, my team would not be very good if they were the best player on my team.

That leaves us Edmonds and Lofton. Simply put, I don’t what the voters were thinking on Lofton. He compared his numbers with Ichiro’s numbers and noted how similar they were. Yes, Ichiro had five brilliant seasons in Japan before coming to MLB, but the MLB numbers were very similar. Ichiro was nearly unanimous and Lofton fell off the ballot. It just doesn’t make much sense.

Edmonds might be a steroids casaulity in a round about way. He may not have used or been credibly accused of using, but every power hitter is looked at with greater scrutiny and their numbers are looked at in greater scrutiny. Still, Edmonds was more than just a power hitter. He was an above average fielder and he got on base at a good clip. Both will move onto the next round.

Originally published in Thoughts from A Native Texan on April 12, 2026. Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link.