The Launch Angle

The last few articles have demonstrated something I already knew. The specter of steroids and performance enhancing drugs creates a quagmire that is impossible to successfully navigate through. We will eventually reach a majority, but whether we will get to the 75 percent necessary to enshrine someone remains to be seen. Left field is probably more impacted by cheating than any other position. The top three players in the index that are on the outside looking in all have significant issues in regards to breaking the rules.

The end result is one of two positions. The first position is that the morals clause forbids their inclusion, so they should never be in. The second position is that they were among the best players in the history of the sport, so they should be in, but there should be a complete retelling of the record. Left field becomes even more complicated when we add in someone just outside the group like Joe Jackson.

I normally hate compromise when it comes to the politics of glory, but I had a moderate proposal for these players. They should wait until after they die to get in. That way, you are still honoring their achievements without giving them the individual glory. That would immediately give Pete Rose and Jackson an on ramp to get in. Obviously, these things would need to be debated in the public sphere and I’m not going to completely trash anyone that has a dissenting opinion, but that would at least table the likes of Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez.

However, what we are doing today is looking at the next five guys. These are the guys not tainted by steroids or gambling so that we could evaluate their record. Keep in mind, that picking the top two guys doesn’t automatically mean they should be in. It just means they are the top two guys not in the Hall of Fame.

Left Field WAR seasons

Immediately we see two former Astros here and we see what we talked about earlier illustrated in black and white. Both Berkman and Cruz felt like they were one or two years short and that can be seen as they only have nine seasons with three or more WAR. That’s still pretty good, but the bar in left field is pretty high. Even one more three or four win season would have done wonders for both.

In this table, it would appear that Bob Johnson comes away looking the best. This is particularly true when you consider that those 12 seasons represent every season he played in the big leagues. Johnson played a combined nine seasons in the minors before and after his big league career. Baseball-reference has no official batting average, OBP, or slugging percentage for those years, but he did hit 107 home runs.

He played three seasons in the American Association before entering the big leagues. He hit well over .300 in two of them and hit more than 20 home runs in all three seasons. This followed a season where he played on multiple levels including the American Association. He hit nearly ,300 that year too with another 20+ home runs.

It is important to note this because these were the days before affiliated minor leagues. Independent teams could horde their best players and wait for the highest bid. It is likely that Johnson could have debuted at least two years earlier if he had played in modern baseball. His career probably would have lasted a couple more seasons in the big leagues as well. An extra three or four seasons does wonders to the overall index and counting numbers for a player’s career.

Magee has the highest index score of the group (that is why he is listed first). However, these additional tests might put that fact in a more unique context. As Johnson’s situation shows, the index is not necessarily the final word on anything. Let’s see what happens when we look at offensive numbers like real offensive value and bases per out.

Left Field ROV and BPO

I like these two numbers because they more accurately reflect what a hitter actually does. The difficulty with OBP, SLG, and OPS is that they all include batting average as its chief component. Therefore, you are counting batting average twice when you look at OPS. Both ROV and BPO more accurately reflect the complete nature of a hitter and that includes his ability to get on base, but also the total damage they do independent of batting average.

A 1.000 BPO is rare. Typically, the only players getting those are in the Hall of Fame. Of course, I would never suggest any single statistic guarantees anything. Berkman had longevity issues, but I think kicking him off the ballot after one season was ludicrous. Berkman’s contributions to the game needed to be studied over time. He is conservatively amongst the top five switch hitters in the history of the game and most analysts would say either top three (Mickey Mantle and Chipper Jones are ahead) or maybe top four (Eddie Murray had more longevity). That merits more than five percent of the ballot.

Johnson just sneaks underneath the radar because he played in the so-called Live Ball or Babe Ruth Era (depending on who you ask) and that era was one of the better hitting eras in baseball history. The numbers don’t jump off the page in any single category, but he was very good at all of them. He hit for good average. He got on base at a very good clip. He hit for very good power. You add all of that up and you get the makings of a great player.

The only downside to ROV and BPO is that they are not normed for the differences between eras. Both Sherry Magee and Jose Cruz played in run limiting environments. Magee played in the Dead Ball Era while Cruz played in the best pitcher’s park in big league history. That definitely warrants consideration, but there is such a huge gap between Berkman, Johnson, and the rest that differences in era can’t account for all of that.

Left Field Total Runs

There is a subtle difference between being the best player not in the Hall of Fame at a position and being worthy of being in. They are not the same thing. Berkman and Johnson are clearly head and shoulders over these other three, but that does not mean that they should be in. It doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be in. We have to compare them with the players already in.

Next time, we will take a look at Johnson and Berkman and compare them with the left fielders that finished ten percent either way from the Hall of Fame median. Obviously, no player will be a median performer or better in every single category. We are looking for a preponderance of the evidence. On balance, do they look like they belong?

We only compare left fielders to left fielders because each position has its own quirks and peculiarities. Left field is among the least valuable positions overall, so you can see that most of these players were dinged considerably. We can only know whether either Berkman or Johnson belong by comparing them with those that are already in and we know they belong.

Originally published in Thoughts from A Native Texan on March 28, 2026. Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link.