So far, the Astros’ offense has sprinted out of the gate. It’s a small sample but the offensive results have been at or near the top of the league. Small samples over a handful of games may not be all that enlightening about the future. After all, sample size goes to the question of ability to sustain current performance. But examining offensive approach, even in a small-ish sample may tell us more about the potential to sustain success. The team’s offensive approach may tell us how the offensive results can be sustained.
I think knowledgeable fans pointed to the team offensive approach as the main problem with the Astros’ under-performance in run scoring last year. The principal culprits? Lack of patience, as exemplified by free swinging and quick outs, and poor situational awareness, which hinders the ability to convert baserunners into runs. The team management seemed to arrive at similar conclusions. With new hitting coaches and a renewed effort to improve the hitting approach, the Astros now say that the batters are buying into the program which they call controlled aggression.
In theory, an improved approach improves batter counts, allowing hitters to select a pitch they can handle well, and can increase the number of free passes. The Astros’ offensive results are surprisingly good so far, as indicated by league rankings. The Astros are No. 1 in both wRC+ (153) and OPS (.880). The Astros are also No. 1 in Runs Above Average (wRAA)–and it’s not particularly close. The Astros also lead the league in walk percentage (14.6%). It’s a small sample for the season, and we can’t really expect the Astros to lead in so many categories throughout the season.
But some of the broad indicators of plate approach are also encouraging.
I sometimes use BB / K as a general indicator of plate discipline. The Astros are currently No. 1 in BB / K (about 20% higher than the 2d ranked team). The Astros were ranked 21st in BB / K in 2025.
Another broad indicator is average pitches seen per plate appearance. A higher percentage aligns with more patience. (This stat is available on Baseball-Reference.com.) Link. The Astros currently are seeing 4.00 pitches per plate appearance. This is substantially better than the Astros in 2025, when their average pitches seen was 3.76, one of the fewest in the league. The league average Pitches/PA in 2025 was 3.87. The Astros’ individual leaders are Brice Matthews (5.63), Isaac Paredes (4.77), Cam Smith (4.63), Christian Vazquez (4.22), Carlos Correa (4.09), and Jose Altuve (4.04).
Another similar indicator is swing percent for all pitches. The Astros in 2026 swing at 45% of pitches compared to 49% in 2025. League average in 2025 was 48%. Perhaps the most remarkable transformation is Jose Altuve, who was previously noted for his free swinging ways. Jose’s swing percent has declined from 50% in 2025 to 32% in 2026. Altuve’s pitches seen per PA has increased by 15% in 2026.
To evaluate situational hitting, I frequently utilize Run Expectancy 24 base-out situations (RE 24). This quantifies runs above or below the average outcomes for the 24 base-out situations. This stat encompasses run expectancy outcomes like advancing runners as well as hitting and BB stats. The Astros are currently No. 1 in RE24 (+26.4 above average), which is much better than 2025 when the team was No. 21 and well into negative territory.
I have previously written about the factors affecting run expectancy and situational hitting. The difference between RE24 and wRAA shows the teams that improve their normal hitting stats with situational hitting. In the article linked above, I found that BB / K was a good explanatory variable for the increase associated with situational hitting. And as noted previously, the Astros currently lead the league in BB / K. Even though the Astros are No. 1 in wRAA, the Astros are still higher (added runs) in RE24, which suggests that their situational outcomes have added value to the offense.
The Astros currently have a .330 BABIP, which probably unsustainable. So we can expect the Astros offensive results to decline in the future. That is what is meant by “regression to the mean.” But if the Astros’ approach at the plate continues to show patience and situational awareness, I feel fairly confident that the Astros’ offensive results will remain well above average. That’s part of the process, and maintaining the process eventually leads to good outcomes.
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source.
Brice and Cam being towards the top of pitches seen per PA is very encouraging.
Dana gave Cintron and Snit ample opportunity. Even when all indicators said it was time to go, he gave them a chance. With the injuries last year(Yordan especially) the approach our team has bought into would have a went a long way last year for us. Still, it sure is fun scoring runs again finally.
Even hitting aside, Cintron had to go. It seemed like he was at the center of every maelstrom rubbing people the wrong way.
That game where Hinch got into it with Ron Kulpa? That started because Cintron was doing and saying stuff that Kulpa didn’t like.
The hubbub before ALCS game 1 2019 where the Yankees were incensed about something an Astros coach was doing? That was Cintron.
That time Ramon Laureano got HBP and he got pissed and benches cleared when he tried to charge the Astros dugout? He was going after Cintron.
There was just something about that guy.