The Astros minor leaguers are back in action. Evaluations generally come out in the winter and those were not pretty. The gold standard is Baseball America, which has their stuff seriously paywalled although they had a podcast about the Astros that was free. Meanwhile, ESPN had three Astros in the top 200, Fangraphs had the Astros as one of the shallowest systems with no blue chippers, Keith Law at the Athletic had some good things to say behind the NYT paywall, and MLB.com always provides in-depth analysis for the top 30 prospects and likes to get eyeballs with endless stories about “one guy to watch” on every team.
The Astro system did show out at the AFL. James Hicks pitched 14 scoreless innings, Jacob Sullivan turned heads with his athleticism, Walter Janek flashed power, and Hudson Leach showed a live fastball. The biggest riser, however, was Anderson Brito, who rode that helium straight into being the second piece in the deal for Mike Burrows. Consensus top-3 prospect system and fringe top-100 prospect Jacob Melton was also included in the deal.
There are some denialists out there, and some conspiracists who think the rankings don’t matter or that everyone underestimates the Astros. I tend to disagree. The last couple of seasons, the lack of 40-man depth meant that the Astros made desperate deals for marginal players and were willing to sign anyone off the scrap heap during the dog days. Yes, the Astros have a long record of getting players to pop who didn’t appear on top 100 lists, and of having their best prospects not quite properly calibrated (Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena) as obvious top 20 level talents. But by and large, true 60 grade prospects tend to become stars much more frequently than prospects outside of the top 100, and fringe prospects tend to be fringy more than they surprise.
The good news is that the Astros have two extra picks in the first four rounds, one plum pick due to Hunter Brown’s top 3 CY Young finish, and another comp pick after the 4th round for losing Framber. And they’re not losing a pick, like they did in the last draft, for signing a free agent with a QO attached.
Before we get to the draft, there’s the season. For the newbies, the Astros have four full-season affiliates plus a team in the Florida complex and two teams in the Dominican Summer League (DSL). It’s always nice to dream on 17 year-olds in the DSL but those evaluations rely on a lot of projection. The closer a player is to the majors, the smaller the number of potential deviations.
If you want to follow, first, I’d suggest you follow the X accounts of the Astros Player Development and of Astros Future, which also has a great blog that includes daily recaps. I myself like to look at the box scores found on the official MiLB website. One can think of there being three levels of following minor leaguers. The first is to look at the statistics in the tradition manner (ERA, BA, HRs, and other counting stats). The second is to look at the more advanced stats: for pitchers, basically the BB/K ratio. Some of these parks are a joke because of altitude or distance; sometimes the fielders are bad. Can a pitcher throw strikes and miss bats? That tells you more about their stuff than ERA. Same thing with a hitter. Fielding in the minors is generally bad, so if a prospect is getting dragged down by a .260 BABIP, it probably means that they’re just not hitting the ball very hard. Asheville (A+) plays in a hitters’ park but not a hitters’ league. Sugar Land (AAA) plays in a neutral-ish park but in the PCL, with three or four ridiculous fields. Get excited for multiple HR games at home, not in Albuquerque. Plenty of hitters can get to 25 jacks in a full season in the PCL. If they’re 26 years old, there’s probably a reason they’re still there.
The third level is eyeballs. I’d trust a scout over a box score any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Yes, they’re wrong sometimes but anything they report is pure gold. Also, go to games if you can. Watch for yourself on MiLBtv. It should be free if you pay for MLBtv. The feeds are terrible though, and you can’t really fast forward through games.
This season the excitement flows downward. The AAA team has very few real prospects right now and one of them, Zach Cole, is out. Some of the pitchers we’ve been following for a few years are now relegated to the bullpen (Michael Knorr, Alimber Santa). Miguel Ullola is on the 40-man and 2-3 starts away from proving he deserves a call-up. The AA team has Sullivan, Lucas Spence, Will Bush, and Janek plus a host of interesting pitchers (Hicks, Bryce Mayer, Jackson Nezuh). My favorite Alonzo Tredwell probably lands there when he heals.
Asheville’s most interesting pitchers are Cole Herzler, who already turned in a great start, and Parker Smith. Formerly highly-regarded prospects Nolan DeVos and Andrew Taylor are stationed there. Dylan Howard is a 2024 draftee who gets no love but quietly dominated last year across three levels. He’s back at A+, and looking to continue or improve upon the 1.06 WHIP in 24 IP. Everyone’s favorite Ethan Frey is supposed to put up huge numbers, and all-time name Max Holy is already running like a bat out of hell. Cuban high bonus prospect Alberto Hernandez roams the outfield and EV darling Caden Powell is on the dirt. Some 2025 draftees are there already, and many more will join once they promote themselves out of Fayetteville.
Top prospects Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens are teen-aged darlings playing with and against ex-college players and older guys at Fayetteville. Maybe Jace Mitchell will join them in a month or two. It is still A ball, and in their first game the Peckers had more errors (4) than hits (3) while getting shut out and K’ing 15 times. Nehomar Ochoa and Anthony Huezo are both starting there, as is 2025 4th rounder Nick Monistere. On the pitching side, 2025 6th rounder Gabel Pentecost is already turning heads after a dominant opening-day start (4 IP, 7 K, 0 ER). Nick Potter, drafted between Monistere and Pentecost, is also on the roster, and Ethan Pecko is there on a rehab assignment. Other 2025 draftees dot the roster and some will surely play their way into a quick promotion to Asheville.
The Astros ultimately control how the industry sees them. It starts with big performances in actual games. On days when the big leaguers look like crap, one can always find a silver lining. Let’s go!
Feature photo courtesy Ryan Brecker. Kevin Alvarez at 2026 Astros Spring Breakout Game.
Excited for our young pitchers down there in the Carolina Leagues.