The 2026 Astros certainly won’t lack intrigue for a variety of reasons. For one, there is the uncertain long-term status of Joe Espada and Dana Brown, who are essentially “lame ducks” for the upcoming season. I would normally say a successful season with a deep postseason run would save their jobs, but James Click won a World Series in 2022 and was not retained following the season. In other words, what do I know?
I do have cautious optimism about this pitching staff, though. Even without Framber Valdez, the front office has seemingly done a good job of addressing its depth issues from last season. And, for once, they’re not solely relying on hope about their injured pitchers. But optimism doesn’t always translate into positive results, and the Depth Chart projections at FanGraphs threw some cold water on my hopes.
Other than Hunter Brown, with a projected 3.6 fWAR, no other starter on the Astros is projected to finish higher than Tatsuya Imai’s 1.8 fWAR. The projections for Cristian Javier, for example, aren’t good, with a 5.01 FIP and 0.9 fWAR in 157 innings. Mike Burrows and Spencer Arrighetti are marked to throw 130 and 71 innings, respectively. Lance McCullers Jr….checks notes….111 innings pitched?
But it is worth noting that projections are only that: projections. Things can and will change. Whether for better or worse, I can’t exactly tell you with any certainty. But I’d be relatively surprised if McCullers throws 100 innings, even with a six-man rotation being utilized more frequently. I would speculate that Burrows throws more than 130. While Javier may never quite recapture his 2022 form, I’d don’t think his FIP will finish around 5.
Without Valdez, there is additional uncertainty surrounding this staff, without question. There are concerns about the floor of this rotation if multiple pitchers fail to meet even modest expectations. But there is also upside within this group to be an average-to-above-average staff, and I am anxious to see how everything settles.
Other Links
- Alden Gonzalez of ESPN provides mid-winter thoughts about the AL West’s offseason, including the Astros
- An older link from December, but Geoff Pontes of Baseball America chatted about the Astros’ farm system
- And here is a link to Houston’s top thirty prospects according to Baseball America (monthly sub required)
