The Launch Angle

On December 13th last year, the Astros traded Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski. A trade that marked a change in philosophy and the end of a remarkable run of domination and continuous playoff contention. As with any trade of this magnitude, there were mixed emotions. Tucker was a beloved player, but after watching star after star leave without compensation, this time, there was an immediate return for the loss of the player.

Losing two of our best in Alex Bregman and Tucker in the middle of the streak of contention took the expected toll, but most fans recognized we were unlikely to meet the insane contract that Tucker will likely demand on the open market. And while our streak ended, Tucker had an up-and-down season and is predicted by MLBTR to sign a contract worth more than $400 million, a realm Crane was unlikely to ever entertain. Admittedly, given that they embraced this notion, I still find it baffling that they did not push for a trade of Framber Valdez under a similar mindset.

With a full year to look back at, Paredes made a name for himself, turning in a 2.5 WAR season, batting 28% over league average across an injury-shortened 102-game season. Wesneski pitched 32 innings of league-average baseball before requiring Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for the season. Both have solid amounts of club control, although I expect Paredes to be traded during the offseason, given the logjam in the infield. But we’re going to talk about the Aircraft Carrier.

Smith’s season was a roller coaster to say the least, and I unfortunately believe many fans have unfairly soured on him. When he was called up, there were rumblings that the decision could cost Dana Brown his job. I personally never believed that, but I do believe it was an extremely aggressive promotion, particularly as they challenged him to play a new position. Smith was called up with just five games played at Double-A and just 32 total games in the minors. When Baseball America published this article in April, he was the third-youngest player in the AL.

Smith came up and shocked the baseball world. His first half had him cruising to a three-plus WAR season, putting up respectable defensive numbers and producing 16% above league average. The hype seemed like it couldn’t have been higher. The .277/.347/.418 triple slash didn’t fully fill the void that Tucker left, but certainly numbed the pain and brought hope.

In the second half of the season, pitchers adjusted, BABIP luck bit him, and his power evaporated. His triple slash plummeted to a .165/.247/.242, 41% of league average production. The Astros traded for Jesús Sánchez to platoon him, given his increased workload and recent struggles.

When interviewed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic last month, Dana Brown stated that Smith could begin the season in Triple-A if he hasn’t turned the corner. While there is an undoubted need for the young outfielder to regain the form he showed in the first half of the season, he faced an increasing onslaught of criticism as the season wore on, with many giving up on him, someone who had barely scratched the surface of his potential. I was personally surprised to see uncertainty about Smith retaining his spot. However, I am sure the pressure was high when playing for a team with postseason aspirations and ultimately missing the playoffs altogether for the first time since the start of the dynasty.

While it was a tale of two seasons, his overall marks of a 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR / 1,9 bWAR, and fourth-highest Defensive Runs Saved (12), Outs Above Average (ranked 70th percentile), with an arm strength in the 88th percentile, all indicate a player who was solid on the year, and has massive potential for growth. His defensive performance was enough to earn him a Gold Glove nomination and SABR defensive index ranking him second in AL right fielders, an achievement that should garner more discussion given his inexperience at the position.

His speed (95th percentile at 29.3 fps) and bat speed (84th percentile) showcased glimpses of a physical toolset that could allow Smith to blossom into an utterly dominant force at the batter’s box in addition to the field. He put up some eye-popping numbers with the 31st fastest sprint speed, 52nd highest max exit velocity, and 64th longest home run. His 6’3″, 224-pound frame still feels underutilized, currently getting more pull homers than true power to all fields like his frame indicates he is capable of. An initial look at the xwOBA trend for the season shows a pattern similar to the standard metrics. Still, it also shows a distinct recovery in September, offering some signs of optimism. Overall, for an extremely young and untrained athlete, Smith performed remarkably well in my opinion. Early-season hype likely created an unfair expectation, and pitchers getting a full scouting report on him, his workload, and some poor luck ultimately derailed the hype train.

As we head into 2026, the Astros will still need outfielders, strong bats, and the next generation of players who can become the faces of the franchise. While it’s still far too early in his career to make statements like that, I think we saw a small stumble of what could become one of the great players in our organization, filling a major need. While I can’t predict that Smith will outperform Tucker in 2026, I think he shows that the first half of the season wasn’t just a mirage, and as he learns to control his incredible physical toolset, we could see him evolve into a dominant force in the league.

What do you think? Has the Aircraft Carrier earned the right field job in your mind for 2026?