The Launch Angle

As we head into next year, we face a likely departure of one of the Astros’ aces, removing a chunk of excellent innings from our stable. The team is in a precarious position, with an aging roster, narrowly missing the playoffs after a decade of domination. There will be many questions as to what the next steps will be for the organization, and this offseason will likely be very telling of the short- and long-term future.

As we head into free agency, there are some marquee names such as Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez, and others which will come with notable talent and price tags into the hundreds of millions of dollars. While I would love to go after one of those arms or bolt on a massive addition, I wanted to focus on a more realistic acquisition without costing a trade, QO, or financially tying us to a long-term contract. That last one, generally lends better to rebounding and older players who are not looking for as significant of contracts when it comes to the number of years. Which leads me to nostalgic fan favorite – Justin Verlander.

Verlander certainly isn’t a bargain bin pitcher, but heading into his age 43 season, most predict him for a 1 year contract in the $15-22 million year range. There are certainly questions as to how Verlander will continue to age, as the question is not when the end will come, but how he goes out carving his names and stats into the all-time record books.

With that said, a re-union is far more than a nostalgic way to sell tickets. While Verlander’s 4-11 record surely will not impress anyone, the underlying statistics actually tell a much better story. In a modern age of short outings, Verlander is still a throw back, his 152 IP ranked the 67 th highest of any pitcher in baseball. His 3.85 ERA was better than league average with an identical FIP not indicating success primarily through luck. His K/9 and HR rates were the best they’ve been in 3 years.

All of those numbers lend credibility to Verlander still having enough in the tank to be a solid addition. But in reality, they understate a bit of Verlander’s turnaround after the injury. He started the year with a 6.75 ERA in his first 4 outings, eventually falling to 0-8
with a 4.99 ERA, before he turned the corner. The second half was vintage Verlander. He turned back the clock, tossed to a sub-3 ERA in his final 14 starts. From August till the end of the year, Verlander’s ERA ranked 5th best in baseball, looking more like the perennial Cy Young candidate than someone at the end of his career.

[Credit – Justin Verlander Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics |
baseballsavant.com ]

The metrics around Verlander’s arsenal looks solid too, his velocity and spin rates coming in at similar numbers to his 2023 season. His fastball was hit harder and he altered his usage patterns a bit, particularly with increased usage of his change-up against opposite hand hitters. The other pitch of note is the “addition” of a sweeper (modified curveball with focus on horizontal movement using the Hawkeye system). Verlander has always thrived on vertical and velocity manipulation, with the sweeper providing a stronger horizontal pitch that had incredible results. After throwing just 1 pitch with over 10” glove side movement all of last season, this provided a completely new look to an old reliable favorite. While just thrown 7.9% of the time, the pitch produced the lowest xwOBA, wOBA, highest put away %, and second highest whiff rate of his arsenal– giving him a new devastating offering for batters to worry about. How good was it? Batters hit for a batting average of .053 with a slugging of .105!!!

Of course, it is not quite that simple. While Verlander had a resurgence in his performance, one red flag outside of age is the home / away performance split. Verlander was notably stronger pitching at Oracle Park. Not only with stronger ERA, but his K and BB rates reflect he may have been very conscience of the fact that Oracle Park has the fifth-lowest offensive park factor in baseball, allowing him to pitch more aggressively and still reduce his HR rate. (Daikin Park is 12 spots higher)
Additionally, while Verlander’s metrics indicate that he still has some life left in his arm, time is undefeated, and you have to wonder if Verlander is living on borrowed time. Personally, I think the re-union makes a ton of sense. Verlander has thrived under the
Astros analytics, there’s a love from the fanbase, success with his style of pitching, and
the need.

With every start, Verlander will continue to carve his name into history. His All-
Time WAR is 25 th and should break into the top 20 next year, with strikeouts at 8 th place
with an outside shot of putting himself in the top 5 all time next year. Verlander will likely get a lucrative contract with one of the contenders next year as he looks to put the final stamps on his Hall of Fame ticket. He’s expressed a desire to be the last 300 win pitcher, at 266 today, it would likely take him 2-3 healthy seasons to achieve that. If those were served in Houston, I think it would be fair to question which cap he decides to wear on the day of his enshrinement.

What are your thoughts on a Verlander re-union? Bring back the workhorse to reinforce
the stable of arms? Believe it’s time to see the next generation? Think it’s time for Verlander to hang up the cleats? Let’s hear it!