The Launch Angle

It should be noted that you need to play ten seasons to be eligible for the index. That has a way of limiting players and that is certainly true at the catching position. There are only three current catchers with ten or more seasons and enough WAR to be a serious consideration. We had some commentary and questions about the last piece, so I thought I would go ahead and include the other two active catchers along with two very prominent recent retirees.

I should note that we will start with counting numbers even though counting numbers are not part of the index. We do that to illustrate a point. If one were to look at counting numbers they would completely misunderstand value. There are two likely Hall of Famers in this group of five catchers. If you were to look at only the counting numbers you would pick the wrong two.

Catcher Counting Numbers

Perez is second in hits, first in home runs, second in runs, and first in RBIs. According to this table he is either the first or second best player in the group depending on which numbers you value. However, that presents the entire problem in how these numbers are accrued. They come with a number of internal biases that you cannot see with the naked eye.

For instance, we have some numbers missing. Walks is the chief number missing and the one that helps tell the difference between a good offensive player and a so-so offensive player. We also have the impacts of time and place. Runs and RBI are opportunity stats. Someone has to be on base. Someone has to drive you in. Some teams just aren’t as good and prolific as other teams.

You also have the impacts of era and home ballpark. That is usually what we refer to when we refer to time, but time also refers to time on task. A 15 year career is going to produce impressive counting numbers even if the player is merely average. That player may produce more than a good 12 year catcher. We obviously also haven’t looked at fielding either. This is why we look at the index. The index can tell us who belongs and who doesn’t. More importantly, it helps us put players into similar groups for more impactful comparisons.

Catcher Index

The index is designed to separate players into like groups. It does not rank order players because it is too crude an instrument to do that. It helps us whittle down the list so that we can have meaningful conversations using other tools. We are not looking for the order as much as we are looking for separation. Clearly, Posey and Molina are head and shoulders above the other three.

Is Posey really that much better than Molina? I’m not saying that based on these numbers alone. It is more important to look at offensive data, fielding data, playoff performance, and dominance data (we are adding a table this time around) to tell us why the index separates players the way that it does. Consider it a kind of back up check to make sure the numbers make sense.

Based on these numbers, Perez is simply not a Hall of Famer. He’s just not. Realmuto and Contreras are still active and likely to play beyond this season (well beyond in Contreras’ case) so we cannot definitely say they are not Hall of Famers. However, based on the numbers above they clearly are not there yet. Let’s see if the other numbers say the same thing.

Offensive Numbers

One of the key elements of the index is that we only compare players from like positions. That will present a bit of a problem for Contreras as he continues to log more time at first. As we will see, the fielding value table will demonstrate that we have ways to allow for that little wrinkle. Suffice it to say, being a league average hitter (as Perez and Molina are close to being) does not mean you are an average offensive catcher.

They likely could be charitably be called an above average offensive catcher. The question comes in whether an average hitter should get into the Hall of Fame. Obviously, there is more to consider here. An average hitter that is also an other worldly fielder will have to a different value structure than someone that is average across the board.

Average players absolutely have value. A number of teams in the league would love to have an average catcher. The difference comes in whether that is worthy of the highest honor even if it is done over a long period of time. Posey comes off looking good and shows why he is where he is at in terms of value. Like we said before, it is the value of walks.

Catcher Fielding

I don’t think Molina is the best defensive catcher of all-time necessarily. However, these numbers indicate he is a contender. So, if you are an average hitter and a great fielder then you come with excellent value. That is particularly true at important defensive positions where there is a larger gap between the best and the worst. That gap is where value rests.

Posey was also very good, so he was both very good offensively and very good defensively. Those players also have a ton of value. The rest look a little more ordinary with Contreras being an above average defensive catcher, but coming in with shaky overall defensive value. That is how switching to first base impacts him, so his professional profile will likely end up being somewhere between Victor Martinez, Carlos Santana, and Joe Torre depending on how long he is able to be productive offensively.

Perez is the widest margin between the different sources of data, so one could label him as the third best defensive catcher or the worst defensive catcher in the group depending on the source. So, when you are average offensively and more or less average defensively you are average. Average players shouldn’t get into the Hall of Fame even they do it for a very long time.

Catcher Awards Voting

We are splitting the impact vote into two halves. Essentially, peak value can only tell us so much. Over a ten season period a player could average four wins by consistently producing four wins or they can do so by having some high WAR seasons mixed in with some more pedestrian seasons. The MVP test tells how many of those impact seasons the player had and how the MVP voters felt about them at the time.

Clearly, based on this test, Posey is head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of impact. Molina is next. The other three really show the gap here. I should note that Contreras is currently ranked 7th in BWAR, so he could conceivably finish in the top five or could tumble out of the top ten. His three BWAR points reflect his current 7th place standing.

We can add another test where we simply look at the number of high impact seasons each player had. We do that by tallying 5+ WAR seasons, 4+ WAR seasons, and 3+ WAR seasons. Generally speaking, a three WAR season indicates you are a solid to good regular at your position. We are utilizing only BWAR which should give Perez a boost because he might not register any such seasons in FWAR.

WAR Seasons

Obviously, one would need to compare this table with the current Hall of Famers to determine whether any of these numbers are good or not. However, we can compare these players to each other and we now know that Posey is just different. It is yet another test that demonstrates fitness.

Perez just doesn’t have the high impact seasons because he just was never highly effective overall offensively. If he were to make into Cooperstown I don’t know how he would get to the podium, because he certainly wouldn’t walk there. Contreras though is the most fascinating. He has a number of solid seasons, but few really good seasons. He currently has more than four WAR and could surpass five WAR this season.

Our last test is the playoff performance test. Buster Posey obviously has a leg up here with three rings, but how did he perform during those playoffs? Perez has one ring. Molina also has multiple rings. If we play the sport to win then being a prominent member of a title team is a feather in your cap.

Playoff Numbers

The actual numbers look similar, but Molina has everyone beat on volume. This is where these things get tough. Do we reward players for additional opportunities? After all, that is almost a season’s worth of numbers and we can definitely give him extra credit for leverage. However, how do we allow for players that didn’t get those opportunities?

I should note that Realmuto and Contreras are likely to get another opportunity this season. Depending on how deep their teams go in the playoffs they could significantly change the record above. We could certainly allow for players like Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager significantly boosting their profiles with one or two playoff runs. They have the opportunity to add to that resume.

The other three are done. Posey and Molina have multiple rings, so they deserve a boost even if their numbers don’t necessarily look great. Playoff baseball usually includes better pitching, so individual hitters likely won’t look as good. You are playing a team’s top three starters and higher leveraged bullpen guys. That of course leaves Perez. He simply is not good enough. There is not much I can do to make him look like he is good enough.

Originally published in Thoughts from A Native Texan on August 30, 2026. Feature photo by D. Benjamin Miller, Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication.