Ethan Pecko is first prospect starting pitcher from the Astros’ minor league pipeline to debut this year. Technically, Tatsuya Imai was a rookie, but given his professional experience in Japan, he was not a prospect.
Pecko is 23 years old and will turn 24 next week. The sixth round pick from the 2023 draft went to Towson State. Most scouting services view him as a ready-made bottom of the rotation pitcher. Fangraphs suggested last year that he might have a mid-rotation ceiling but calls him this year “near-ready” for a No. 4 or No. 5 pitching slot.
Baseball America ranks Pecko as the Astros 6th rated prospect. MLB Pipeline ranks him 9th. Fangraphs ranks Pecko as the 4th rated Astros prospect. The average velocity on Pecko’s 4 seam fastball is 94.5 mph, and Fangraphs reports that he can touch 98 mph at times.
In addition to the 4 seam fastball, Pecko also throws a sinker, cutter, curveball and slider. The slider leans toward sweeper type movement and is mostly used against right handers. His curveball is mostly used to hold down left handers. Pecko has no significant platoon differentials so far in his career. None of his pitch arsenal is rated as “plus,” but all of his pitches are viewed as serviceable average pitches.
Pecko has 4.56 ERA in 2026, with a 4.80 ERA over the last 28 days. An ERA in the high 4’s is pretty much expected for good pitchers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The PCL has some ballparks which are launching pads, in contrast to Sugar Land’s Constellation Field which is a more normal environment. This is evident from Pecko’s home/road splits: Home 3.35 ERA, Road 5.90 ERA. He allows an OPS of .667 at home and .804 on the road.
Pecko’s only games in August were 4 innings and 5 innings. He hasn’t pitched 7 innings since June. So it’s possible that 4 or 5 innings is the maximum we will see in his ML debut. His minor league K rate and BB rate are pretty good in 2026: 9.36 K/9, 3.05 BB/9. Furthermore, he has been good at suppressing exit velocity in 2026. Pecko leans toward “ground ball pitcher” with a 48% GB rate.
Fangraphs rest of season projected ERA at the major league level for Pecko ranges from 3.90 – 4.65, depending on projection system.
Fangraphs scouting report on Pecko:
Like a few Astros pitching prospects, Pecko has grown into a drop-and-drive delivery that creates the flat angle necessary for his low-to-mid-90s fastball to play like a plus weapon. The pitch has flirted with 30% miss rates in recent years, but it also often plays like his best bat-misser. His slider has more compelling sweep than drop, and is mostly a righty-only weapon that he protects with equal use of a 88-91 mph cutter. Even if it winds up taking more damage in the zone, his sharp low-80s curveball is his most valuable secondary because it has to carry the load against lefties, as his changeup is quite firm and inconsistently located.
It’s hard to predict debut results, but I am reasonably optimistic that Pecko will give the Astros a decent but not great 4 or 5 innings.
Angels @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details
Pecko will square off against a fellow rookie, Walbert Urena of the Angels, a 22 year old right handed pitcher who has had a fantastic season. He is 8-8 with a 2.67 ERA over 22 games and 20 starts. He carries a 1.25 WHIP and a 8.5 K/9. Control can be an issue, as he has a 4.8 BB/9 rate.
This will be Urena’s 4th appearance against Houston this year. His first 2 MLB appearances came against the Astros in relief in March, where he threw a 2/3 IP his first time out with 0 runs, 1 hit and 1 walk. His second appearance, he pitched for 1 inning, and allowed an inherited runner to score, as well as 6 additional runs, although none of them were earned.
In 2 starts against Houston, both in Anaheim, he’s allowed 1 run across 11 combined innings, with 5 hits, 7 walks and 12 strikeouts.
The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.
This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.
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Obviously he wouldnt win it with this year’s field that includes mcGonigle and murakami, but it’s nuts to me that some of the pieces out there listing contenders for roty dont even mention a starting pitcher with a 2.67 era, even if advanced metrics would suggest it shoudl probably be a little higehr.
This comment was about urena. I just realized I didn’t specify that.
I don’t speak stats, I speak eye test. If Crane would pay me to scout pitchers for 6 months, my scouting reports would be about location, repertoire, and 94+ fast balls. That’s it. Location to me is not about hitting the target set by the catcher, no. It’s about avoiding consistently the forbidden zone. If a pitcher can avoid the forbidden zone or mistakes, he gets my attention. Then he needs a decent repertoire to mix and match. Finally, 94 mph is fast enough to get away with mistakes from time to time. Less than 94 mph, you need to be perfect, I pass.
I hope Pecko can avoid the forbidden zone consistently. Best of luck.
Pecko hasn’t just been on fire in Sugar Land. Ragtime, I’d hire you
First start ever vs guy who dominated us and is very good on a bad team. Desperate to win vs relaxed team that doesn’t give a shit.
Hmm, yeah, not feeling this game either.
I think there is a decent chance Pecko accords himself well enough to be considered for a spot in the rotation going forward. But that doesn’t mean the Astros will win. I think the key to winning is changing the Astros’ recent offensive approach and putting pitches on Urena. The Astros need to get into the LAA bullpen early enough (6th inning or earlier) that they can score runs. The LAA’s most significant sell offs at the deadline involved the relief corp.
Well that’s the issue isn’t it? Since August started the broadly patient and prepared approach of the March-July Astros has apparently vanished, or only lasts one time through the order.
The Astros are not good when they are impatient. Pretty much ever, since the team looked very different than it does now (and the sport did too).
I just don’t understand. You learn those things when you pay attention. Are you telling me that nobody was paying attention when Hennigan was here? He was the director of offensive so he had people under him. None of them was paying attention?
I’m as incredulous as you. The fall off in approach was immediate. It is ridiculous to be so dependent on one person.
Iapoce was supposed to be the “backup” or secondary person doing Hennigan’s role. Whatever is being done is not working.
I don’t necessarily blame the players 100%, because gameplanning will vary from start to start. But they should know, the Cintron/Snitker approach of aggression is rarely the right one.
I think Iapoce’s role is different. In Rome’s piece last fall, he said that snitker and cintron were like Co #1’s. With the new setup Rodriguez is the clear #1 and Iapoce is the #2. And Hennigan was a 3rd guy that focused on data, and wouldnt be in uniform.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6795116/2025/11/12/houston-astros-anthony-iapoce-hitting-coach-hire/
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Of the two (Rodriguez and Iapoce), Iapoce was supposed to be the more data centric and Rodriguez the more “old school” ie Josh Reddick meme / psychological guy.
It begs the question again, how in the hell can the org be so dependent on one guy, and if they truly were, how can you allow that guy to walk in the middle of a season?
It’s interesting that in Rome’s Q&A with Hennigan in the pre-season, Hennigan said he spent a lot of his time as minor league hitting coordinator last year putting together a template of methods used by the Astros for coaching hitting. He said the pitching side had a lot of accumulated information in one place but every new hitting coordinator had to start from scratch because no one was maintaining the information whenever a hitting coordinator left. Hennigan was the first person in his data position at the major league level, and who knows, after he left, if the situation was similar to what he faced in the minor league hitting position. When Wake Forest was putting on the full court press to sign Hennigan, Rome said Brown was working to retain Hennigan but that the ultimate decision would be made by Crane, and it’s unclear if Crane would approve retaining Hennigan, given that Brown might not be returning as GM.