The Launch Angle

Peter and Hunter and Pray for Thunder

In 2018, the Houston Astros started out the season with five pitchers in their starting rotation. The programming code looked something like this:

10 START VERLANDER
20 START KEUCHEL
30 START MCCULLERS
40 START COLE
50 START MORTON
60 GOTO 10

And the recursive loop continued and continued, such that at this point of that season, August 18, 2018, the total number of starting pitchers the Astros had used was… still 5.

Those were the days.

These days, the script for the Astros rotation has been appreciably longer, filled with subroutines, IF THEN ELSE statements, and so so so much debugging.

The Astros have used 16 different starting pitchers this season, tied with the White Sox for the most in the majors. They have only one pitcher who has made 20 starts or more: Peter Lambert who’s started 21 games. That’s tied for the fewest with the Brewers and the Cubs, but at least the Brewers’ one guy is Jacob Misiorowski.

Mike Burrows has faltered. Tatsuya Imai has been relegated to the pen. Spencer Arrighetti was deemed tradeable and was on the verge of being optioned when it happened. Ronel Blanco has been optioned. McCullers was traded. They looked for starting pitching help at the deadline and came away empty handed.

The team trusts just Hunter Brown and Lambert to start games, and maybe Hayden Wesneski. When this past weekend’s important Seattle series approached, they rearranged the rotation to start Lambert, Wesneski and Brown (and still only came away with 1 win in 3)

The game before the Seattle series was a rubber game against the Giants last week. With none of Lambert, Wesneski or Brown available, the Astros elected to go with a bullpen game instead.

So is this where the rotation is at now? Brown, Lambert and then nobody? Maybe Wesneski, but he’s still fresh off of Tommy John surgery rehab.

Brown hasn’t even really been pitching like the Cy Young finalist we saw last year. He knows it. Chandler Rome of the Athletic reports on Brown’s struggles; he hasn’t been able to throw his 4 seamer consistently for strikes, and he hasn’t figured out how to fix it.

The season and regression is wearing on Lambert who hasn’t finished the 6th inning in his last 4 starts. He’s become a 5 inning, 2 earned run guy, and lately he’s been fortunate to escape with just 2 earned runs. The surprising Whiff% that caught everyone’s attention in April has drifted down to league average.

Even with their struggles, yes, it’s Brown, Lambert, maybe Wesneski and then just question marks. This was the case in how they prepped for the Seattle series, but it became even more evident after the series ended. The team listed Lambert as the starter for the Thursday game against the Angels, but marked Tuesday and Wednesday’s games as “TBA”.

Why not? The Astros have been getting spanked by the opposition whenever they have “TBA” or “TBD” lined up to pitch. May as well try it themselves.

If the 1940’s Braves were immortalized by “Spahn, Sain and pray for rain,” the 2026 Astros now seem to be characterized by “Peter and Hunter and pray for thunder.” (Not that thunder changes anything with an indoor ballpark.)

Two or three people does not a rotation make. Well, maybe if those 2 people are Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain, but Brown and Lambert are far from that.

There’s 37 games left, and the Astros are still throwing things against the wall looking for something that will stick. That’s not a bad plan when it’s May, but when it’s late August and there’s a two game division lead to defend, let’s just hope the script doesn’t error out before October.

TBD ( aka Cristian Javier ) vs. George Klassen

“TBD” tonight has been determined to be Cristian Javier who’s been in and out of the rotation since he’s come back from the IL. (Tomorrow’s is expected to be the MLB debut of Ethan Pecko.)

Javier’s a different pitcher now than before the IL. He has a cutter now. In 7 games since coming off the IL, Javier is 1-2, with a 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, an 8.22 k/9 and 2.74 BB/9.

The sample sizes are small, but so far he’s had 4 relief appearances and 3 starts, and the results have been much better in relief.

In his 4 relief appearances, he’s pitched 9 innings, allowed 1 run on 7 hits, walking 3 and striking out 13. This includes a scoreless 5 inning middle relief performance, where he allowed just 3 hits, walked none and struck out 7 (and against the Angels.)

In 3 starts, he has pitched 14 innings, and allowed 10 runs on 19 hits, walking 4 and striking out 8. That does include a quality start, although it is of the 6 inning, 3 earned run variety. His last start came against the Padres, where he pitched 5 innings and allowed 4 runs on 8 hits and a walk, with 2 strikeouts.

Rookie RHP George Klassen, their #10 prospect, pitches for the Angels. This will be Houston’s first time facing him, as he only has 4 games, all starts, under his belt. He is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP, with 14 strikeouts and 15 walks.

Those are ugly numbers, but those numbers may not be indicative of the pitcher the Astros will be facing tonight. Most of the damage came in Klassen’s first 2 major league appearances in April when he allowed 6 runs over just 4.2 innings combined.

Since he’s come back to the majors in August, after the Angels’ trade deadline fire sale, he’s been much better, first with a 4 inning 1 run start against Miami, and most recently against Texas, he pitched 6 innings, allowed just 2 runs, struck out 5 and walked only 1. That’s a line the Astros would gladly take from Javier tonight.

Klassen has 5 pitches, but he’s primarily a fastball-slider pitcher to righties and a fastball-changeup pitcher to lefties. His 4 seamer averages 96.4 mph this season, which he’s registered as high as 97.1 mph since he’s been called back up.

Angels @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details

The game will be broadcast at 7:10 p.m. CT on SCHN with radio coverage on KBME 790 AM.

This post will be updated with starting lineup as they are made available.

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