With only a 13.3% chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs, the Astros are in need of some soul searching.
Jim Crane has long made it clear that he doesn’t want to rebuild. The goal is to win every single season as long as he’s the owner of the franchise. At face value, I appreciate that kind of sentiment. Who doesn’t want an owner like that? But there is a difference between holding that kind of vision and carrying it out in practice amid realistic expectations.
One aspect of the rebuild between 2011 and 2014 under Jeff Luhnow that I particularly appreciated was Crane’s willingness to take some lumps along the way. He trusted the processes from his front office and let them do their jobs. A vision was in place, and the Astros saw it through. While we can debate the organizational culture that fermented during that time and its long-term effects, the overall vision produced the most successful era of this franchise by a wide margin.
But the organization has shifted dramatically since those days when Luhnow was in charge of baseball operations. It is clear that Crane doesn’t have the appetite for such a rebuild, and I can’t necessarily blame him. A rebuild is never an appealing option. But the organization is also in a better spot than it was at the end of the Drayton McLane era. I’ll stand by this until proven otherwise: the franchise back then deserved to be ripped down to the studs, Luhnow or not. Is the organization where it was even five years ago? No, it isn’t, yet this isn’t a bulldoze-down-to-the-foundation situation.
In other words, I think a soft reset is in order for the Astros, whether Dana Brown is retained as general manager or not. But here’s the quandary about Houston’s plight: Brown’s contract expires at the end of the 2026 season, and he is trying to keep his job. And how does he keep his job? At the very least, qualify for the postseason. And how does this team improve its odds? By acquiring better players by the trade deadline. A team already low on prospects and not a ton of money to spend in what could prove to be a strong sellers’ market. And it certainly doesn’t seem like the club is wishing to exceed the tax threshold for a third consecutive season. Frankly, a difficult situation to navigate, especially with Crane’s mandate to win.
In Brown’s defense, what else is he supposed to do? Punting on the season now is essentially telling Crane to fire him before the season is finished. Even James Click, on the heels of winning a World Series, couldn’t avoid losing his job. Or this entire discussion could be rendered moot if the losses continue to pile up to force reality to set in. Then there’s the whole 2027 “will they or won’t they” season situation with the ongoing CBA negotiations.
Crane is also more involved in baseball operations than before, so it is difficult to gauge whether any upcoming trade decisions truly belong to Brown or not. The decision to sign Tatsuya Imai feels like one that Crane pushed more so than his front office. The second trade for Justin Verlander nearly three years ago is another example. That’s the one reason I am willing to give Brown more benefit of the doubt than I otherwise would. Of course, one can naturally point to Mike Burrows, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson, Roddery Muñoz, Christian Roa, and the like for a counterpoint.
To end this rambling, yes, the Astros need to do some soul-searching over the next two weeks. These are possibly franchise-altering games that we’re about to watch. And I think that process begins with Crane, who holds the final authority. We’re about to find out how willing he is to keep this window pried open, in a futile effort or not, soon. And if the results don’t change soon, will we see any meaningful changes high up in the organization sooner rather than later?
Marlins @ Astros Game Information and Gamethread Details
For the first time since May 2025, we get to see Ronel Blanco. That’s good news, in my opinion.
Whether that’ll remain a positive development, well, only time will tell. My optimism for the rest of the season is fairly low at the moment, but we’ll see. I always enjoy seeing a player come back from injury, as those are no fun.
Jeremy Peña is also back in the lineup, but Christian Walker remains out. Regardless, the Astros need a win in the worst way, with a 47-54 record and trailing for the division lead by four games. It doesn’t get any easier for the Wild Card, with the Red Sox currently 4.5 games ahead for the third and final spot.
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I have my skepticism that Blanco will perform well upon his first return from TJS. That’s partly due to what we have seen from the Astros’ previous TJ returnees and partly because he wasn’t all that great prior to surgery. But I will gladly hope my skepticism is wrong. Sousa returning could be an improvement in the bullpen–assuming he is fully healthy.
I agree that the next few games could be turning points for the mid season trade decisions.
I don’t believe we need better players to qualify for the postseason.
For next season, we need a better manager, a better GM, and a better front office. Crane has to get his hands out of baseball operations. Getting “better” players won’t change the organization.