Yay!!!!
After scoring only one earned run in the first two games of the season, the Astros’ scoring outburst in their 11-9 win over the Angels means the Astros will have some offense this season after all.
All’s right with the Astros world. A mighty comeback victory after being down 6-0.
Not so fast.
The Astros’ offensive breakout happened in the eight-run sixth inning. Sounds great, but in that inning, there were only two hits with a greater than 50% xBA. Besides those two, the Astros scored on the strength of three walks, a fielding error on a swinging bunt, and RBI singles on a Yainer Diaz weak dribbler with a .150 xBA, and a Carlos Correa swinging bunt with an xBA of .250. In the previous inning, Isaac Paredes hit a routine flyball with a .020 xBA that hit off the short left-field wall for a two-run double.
OK, give Jake Meyers credit for some opposite field power with a double off the right field wall, but on a ball that should have been caught. As good as the Angels’ defense was in Game One, it was terrible last night. Of the Astros’ 11 total runs, only five were earned.
Accuse me of being a Negative Nelly, pissing on the Astros’ first win of the season. And, of course, you can’t judge the course of the season for any team with certainty based on the first three games. But if the first two games caused you any concern, last night’s win doesn’t really dispel those doubts.
The offense won’t have the kind of luck it had last night very often. In three games, there is only one home run. Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith look completely lost, sporting .167 and .091 BAs, respectively. But there is another concern.
After Hunter Brown, the starting rotation is a string of question marks. The early answers are not encouraging. Friday night, newly acquired 26-year-old Mike Burrows got hammered, and last night, back-from-Tommy John Cristian Javier went 4.2 IP, allowing four hits, two homers, four walks, and six earned runs. Cam Smith’s defensive heroics saved him from even more embarrassment.
Let’s hope Tatsuya Imai looks better in his major league debut today. I don’t think anyone expects much from the once-great, current #5 starter, Lance McCullers. In short, the early returns on what is widely assumed to be the Astros’ strength, starting pitching, are not good. Even Hunter Brown looked a little wobbly, going only 4.2 (shutout) innings despite throwing over 100 pitches.
On the plus side, Yordan looks like the Yordan of old, pre-2025. And Christian Walker is starting strong, something he rarely did in his younger days, and a pleasant surprise given his awful first half last year.
It’s only three games. Even if the Astros were 0-3 instead of 1-2, it wouldn’t mean that much. But from the evidence in this early-season small sample, the Astros don’t look fundamentally sound even against a consensus last-place AL West competitor.
One hundred and fifty-nine games to go.
Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link.
Leave a Reply