The Launch Angle

I don’t want to draw any firm conclusions from just one game, much less the first game of a brand-new season. A lot can even change between now and a few weeks from now from a development standpoint. I harken back to Hunter Brown adding a sinker early in the 2024 season that completely turned his season, and arguably his career, around. Of course, player development is hardly linear. Sometimes, all it takes is one change in a single game. It can also take multiple adjustments over a longer period before the results improve, if they ever do.

Cam Smith‘s potential is still readily apparent. After all, he’s only 23 with just 134 minor league plate appearances before making his Major League debut last season. The physical tools that made him this organization’s top prospect upon his arrival as part of the return in the Kyle Tucker trade to the Cubs remain impressive. In other words, it is too early to write him off in any shape or fashion. With so little development in the minors, it ought not surprise us that the learning curve is steeper than usual. But while his defense in right field has certainly impressed, dating back to last season, his approach at the plate warrants further discussion.

José Soriano is arguably the best pitcher on the Angels. That 4.26 ERA he had last season was a bit misleading, as his peripherals indicated he pitched better than that reading would suggest. A 3.73 FIP and 3.54 xFIP in 169 innings isn’t something to ignore. That’s a quality starting pitcher. After watching his performance yesterday, you could clearly see why he was named their Opening Day starter. The strategy he and the Angels implemented clearly got to the Astros’ hitters, as evidenced by the final result. Although his control wasn’t fantastic (4 walks in 6 innings), the 19 whiffs and seven strikeouts stand out.

Centering on Smith, I think the Angels, particularly Soriano and Jordan Romano, target an area that the 23-year-old clearly still needs to work on: pitches down in the zone. The game plan against him was obvious from the start.

With nearly 500 plate appearances of data, opposing pitching staffs, dating back to last season, have intel on where in the zone Smith does well and where he doesn’t. Thus far, it seems like throwing pitches lower in the zone is the area of choice, and the metrics back up this approach for pitchers.

Cam Smith, against pitches thrown in attack zones 7, 8, 9, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19 in 2025:
.215/.262/.312, 31% Whiff%, -20 BRV (794 pitches)

In all other attack zones:
.254/.353/.398, 26.8% Whiff%, 12 BRV (1,230 pitches)

To be fair, the majority of hitters aren’t all that effective against pitches thrown in the lower attack zones, slashing .246/.280/.382 with a 23.2% whiff rate across the league last season in those same attack zones. But those figures are still noticeably better than Smith’s 2025 results. Until Smith forces a change, expect more of the same plan from opposing pitchers.

Drilling down a bit further, it is specifically breaking balls and fastball variants that are proving to be problems for Smith. Look at the pitch chart from Opening Day above again; it was primarily sliders, four-seam fastballs, sinkers, and curveballs in and around the same attack zones that were an issue for him last season.

Again, not a surprise to see a hitter struggle with breaking pitches down in the zone, depending on the count and context of the situation. That first strikeout against Soriano occurred on a swinging strike against a knuckle curve low and away. His second strikeout took place on a sinker below the strike zone. He did draw one walk, which was a positive because we got to see a more patient approach in that instance, a priority for the team as a whole in Spring Training. But Soriano didn’t exclusively throw low or low-and-away pitches to Smith in that plate appearance. Instead, Smith took a couple of pitches inside and was able to lay off a low-and-away curveball, although it was basically in the dirt. To put it another way, an easy take for a professional hitter. But Smith looked overmatched when the plan was simple: only throw him pitches low or low-and-away.

Smith has the potential to be an above-average hitter. The hit tool that made him a highly regarded prospect in the first place remains. We saw glimpses of that potential at various points in 2025, especially in the first half through that early July series against the Cubs. But the league has adjusted to Smith, and he’ll need to demonstrate some improvement in the coming weeks to justify his spot on the active roster. It isn’t outlandish to think that if Zach Cole shows some moderate improvement in his swing-and-miss tendencies, then Smith might find himself in Sugar Land to work on his approach. Again, it is only one game. I want to see more of Smith to see if he can make the adjustment. But the problem was there last season, and it will not abate until he forces opposing pitchers to adjust their plan.

Feature photo from @astros on X, Source Link